This week, we discuss the reliability of Fundamental Analysis sell rules versus Trend Following sell rules, the so-called ‘Quant winter’ that systematic funds are supposedly in, whether there is a clear definition of Value Investing, the ability of CTAs to offer Investors exposure to less popular markets, the differences between Trend Following and Technical Analysis, and how much of past performance can be considered as a reliable indicator for the future. Questions we cover include: Do y...
Jan 20, 2020•2 hr 30 min
Today we continue our interview with Andreas Clenow, where we cover topics such as backtesting & system design, whether we see any growth in the CTA industry, long-term vs short-term Investing, and how to go about raising initial AUM. Questions include: How important are drawdowns when analysing performance? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label for CTAs today? How do you choose parameters for your Trading Models? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES ...
Jan 14, 2020•29 min
In this first episode of 2020, we discuss whether there any investment strategies that can work during all times, the recent Barron’s article featuring Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence, how Trend Following helps to prevent being too confident, the inherent negativity bias within most investors, the drawbacks of positivity when investing, and why you should consider the costs of being too cautious just as much as the costs of taking on too much risk. Questions covered th...
Jan 04, 2020•1 hr 17 min
In this week’s episode, we discuss the notion of correlation between volatility and risk, why it can be a bad idea to equate a manager’s performance with their skill-level, when a losing trade should still be considered a good trade, how much opportunity is in Low-Volatility Targeting strategies, and we also give our end-of-year reviews. Questions answered this week include: Is Trend Following another form of price prediction? Do you follow the weekly Commitments of Traders report? C...
Dec 29, 2019•1 hr 23 min
This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness, why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns. Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently? Does history always ‘rhyme’? Is the Fibonacci sequ...
Dec 23, 2019•1 hr 6 min
In this week’s episode, find out why investing in a strategy during a drawdown can be profitable in the long-run, why risk-adjusted performance is more important than tracking against an index, why price is a better guide than expert opinion, if there is a time when you shouldn’t attempt to have uncorrelated securities in your portfolio, and the connections between Trading, statistics, & sports. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS...
Dec 15, 2019•59 min
This week, we discuss how doing less can ensure bigger & better results over time, average client holding periods versus the recommended amount of time, why short trades might be the essential part of a winning system, and why uniqueness is now a key requirement for today’s emerging managers. Questions we cover this week include: How far should your backtest go? Can emerging Hedge Fund managers still succeed in today’s environment? Should you adjust past data for volatility? ----...
Dec 09, 2019•1 hr 9 min
This week, we discuss the differences between recognising risk and ‘warehousing’ risk, why Fundamental Investors could benefit from implementing Trend Following rules, Diversification as the most important component of risk management, what Traders can learn from Weightlifters, and the delicate balancing act between simple, simplicity, & complexity. Questions we answer this week include: Is Systematic Investing a form of betting? How do you define a Trend? Should you scale into p...
Dec 02, 2019•1 hr 16 min
Is the concept of being a great stock picker overrated? Are Trend Following returns mean-reverting over time? Will Sharpe Ratios of Trend Following strategies permanently stay lower from now on? Is it becoming harder to be a successful discretionary macro trader? Should you use the same stop-loss for every position? We also give our thoughts on the process of adding a new market to your Trading Universe, ATR and how to apply it to your strategies, when a visit from the SE...
Nov 24, 2019•1 hr 27 min
In this week’s edition, we discuss the possible benefits of running a multi-strategy portfolio, whether or not you need to have a ‘feel’ for the markets before constructing a model, the new all-time highs on the Dow, Trend Following as a viable solution to the end of the 60/40 portfolio, and the longer-term drawbacks of chasing performance from different fund managers. Questions we cover this week include: What really went wrong with LTCM? Should Trend Followers also employ Buy & ...
Nov 17, 2019•1 hr 16 min
In this week’s episode, we discuss the recently published book on Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies, why you shouldn’t be too focused on one position, why it can be difficult to avoid overriding your system based on recent fundamentals, what investors can learn from the world’s best Poker players, and why luck should only be the result of following your edge. Plenty of questions answered this week including: Should you add to winning positions? Do you only trade Breakouts or ...
Nov 10, 2019•1 hr 14 min
This week, we cover some of the dangers of ‘Home Bias’, and the benefits of diversification mixed with good risk management. We also discuss the differences between common Trend Trading and Systematic Trend Following, why investors tend to hold on to losing positions longer than winning positions, why people being hopeful with losses and afraid with profits may be the reason for why Trend Following works, DUNN’s Capital’s recent milestone of 45 years in the business, why Trend Following strategi...
Nov 03, 2019•1 hr 9 min
On the show today, we cover some of the dangers of investing in something based on its story alone, how market environments can change while the behaviour of participants stays the same, why Trend Followers rely on secret fundamental information being baked into price, the importance of avoiding Outcome Bias, how cockroaches behave in ways that should be the basis of any robust Trading System, and Niels explains how to use the Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer. Question...
Oct 29, 2019•55 min
This week, we discuss Bank of America’s declaration of the end of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the different attitudes to having ‘insurance’ in the markets, the reasons why too many fund managers are aiming for average returns, and the importance of consistently being present to profit from the biggest price moves. Questions we cover this week include: what can be considered a large enough sample size when performing a backtest? What is the best investing advice you have ever received?...
Oct 19, 2019•1 hr 7 min
On this week’s episode, we discuss the tendency for investors to confuse volatility & noise with risk and instability, the benefits of great mentorship, why the best investments are those that have survived calamitous periods, why risk from any single market shouldn’t be able to ruin your portfolio, and Larry Hite’s observation that there is very little magic in Trend Following. Questions we answer this week include: can a 10-year track record can be considered as anything more than noise? I...
Oct 13, 2019•1 hr 5 min
This week, we discuss the potential risks of aiming for smooth & steady returns, the pitfalls of having to make predictions, the higher-than-expected appearances of tail events, why it’s dangerous to look at the ‘average performance’ of an industry, and why aiming to trade in a style that suits your personality can actually turn out to be a bad idea. Questions we cover this week include: Have you encountered any CTAs with unusually low-frequency trading strategies? Should the optimizat...
Oct 07, 2019•1 hr 18 min
Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I continue our conversation with Alan Sheen, talking about how and why he designed Dalton Street Capital’s investment strategy the way he did, and how it has performed compared to the market average over the past three years. Listen in to today’s episode to learn how Alan’s strategies are different from traditional managed futures, his managerial approach that enables employees to innovate, and what an investor should ask a potential manager when doing their due d...
Oct 02, 2019•55 min
In this week’s episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, DUNN Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund traders this year have been computer-driven Trend-Followers’, and why Risk Management is more important than strategy or philosophy. Questions answered this week in...
Sep 29, 2019•1 hr 14 min
Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I’m speaking with Alan Sheen, Founder and CIO of Dalton Street Capital. Alan has an interesting background in science and engineering, and also spent time in the military, which allowed him to later thrive in rules-based investing. He’s also the first Australian manager to be on the podcast. Listen in to today’s episode to learn about Alan’s journey from the Australian military to starting his own investment firm, why investors should look at volatility not as ris...
Sep 25, 2019•40 min
In this episode, we discuss Howard Mark’s comments regarding not losing money being more important than missing opportunities, how solid Trend Following performance can often stay on the edge of randomness, recent opposing comments from the AHL founders on the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, why complexity and complication might actually be different from one another, and we also touch on a white paper which points out an increased inaccuracy with backtests the more complex ...
Sep 22, 2019•1 hr 9 min
On today’s episode, Niels continues his conversation with Dr. Daniel Crosby , Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Niels and Daniel discuss how emotion affects investment decision-making, the problem with financial media, and what investors can do to correct their bad investment behavior. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In This Episode, You’ll Learn: The key points of de...
Sep 18, 2019•37 min
In today’s episode, we discuss if it’s possible to successfully blur the lines between Discretionary & Systematic Trading, why most of the largest Hedge Funds in the world are Systematic, results of the rolling 10-year returns of Trend Following versus the S&P 500, how diversification can prevent long drawdown periods, why forming an opinion on your stock position can negatively affect how you manage the trade, and we also explain some of the differences between Cash Contracts and Contin...
Sep 16, 2019•1 hr 11 min
The tables have turned! In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen becomes the first featured guest on Erik Townsend’s newest podcast – MacroVoices Spotlight ! In this episode, Niels and Erik discuss Trend Following, the history of the Turtle Traders, Benefits of de-correlation and conditional correlation, how CTAs have been performing, and much more. Follow Niels on Twitter , LinkedIn , YouTube or via the TTU website . IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the U...
Sep 13, 2019•59 min
On today’s episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Dr. Daniel Crosby , Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Dr. Crosby came to investment management through clinical psychology and therefore has a unique perspective on behavioral economics. The discussion ranges from how human behavior is evolutionarily ill-equipped for investment management, the importance of having rules for investing during turbulent times, and what investors can do to ...
Sep 12, 2019•32 min
In our special Anniversary Edition of the Systematic Investor Podcast, we invite Peter Borish onto the show to discuss the differences between Discretionary and Systematic Investing, Peter’s journey from the New York Federal Reserve to his role at Quad Group, his experience working with Paul Tudor Jones, his opinion on the CTA industry and its current approach to attracting capital, the benefits of having solid business partners during the best and worst of times, the power of Market Cycles, how...
Sep 10, 2019•1 hr 22 min
In this week’s show, we discuss using multiple systems to further enhance diversification, the differences between a portfolio meeting expectations versus benchmarking it against an Index, Trend Following in-house versus using an experienced Systematic Investment manager, having the temperament to stay the course with your investments, and the effectiveness of trying to predict the next moves of CTAs. Questions answered this week include: Are interest rates lower than usual at the moment? Does t...
Sep 02, 2019•1 hr 13 min
Today we discuss the potential dangers of avoiding simplicity, how good Trading is counter-intuitive to Human Nature, the benefits of doing the same thing over and over, how to earn big profits through aggressive Trend Following strategies, the secrets to building wealth through investing, and how we like to approach correlations in our portfolios. Questions answered this week include: Why are complex strategies more attractive to investors? Is the phrase ‘this time it’s different’ a...
Aug 25, 2019•1 hr 26 min
Today, we discuss the potential dangers of taking time away from the markets, the importance of Investor behaviour over the ability to analyse data, Morgan Housel’s article on the universal Laws of Investing, the differences between Buy-and-Hold, periodically re-balancing your portfolio, versus a more active Trend Following approach, as well as the art of profiting from Tail Events. Questions we address this week include: is Inter-Market Analysis a useful tool or a dangerous approach? Shou...
Aug 19, 2019•1 hr 17 min
This week, we discuss the current state of the Bond market, how the larger, commercial institutions affect overall CTA Trend Following performance, how to deal with the fluctuations in currencies when performing backtests, and we also give our thoughts on various Trading exit strategies. Questions answered this week include: does the majority of CTAs get out of their equity positions when the S&P500 falls below its 200-day moving average? Should you avoid trading markets that perform b...
Aug 10, 2019•1 hr 13 min
This week, we discuss the importance of avoiding any emotional attachments to your positions, how correlated markets can affect your portfolio, how to decide which trades to execute when your signals outweigh the amount of equity available to trade, and we also give our thoughts on Margin-to-Equity related to Position Sizing. Questions answered this week include: does uncertainty in the markets have any negative effects on Trend Following strategies? Can the S&P 500 ever be a good comp...
Aug 05, 2019•1 hr 21 min
