SI67: The psychology of predictions
Episode description
This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness, why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns. Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently? Does history always ‘rhyme’? Is the Fibonacci sequence a reliable indicator? How do you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long Volatility strategy?
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:37 – Macro recap from Niels
03:10 – Weekly review of performance
11:55 – Top tweets (starting with tweet about recent Cliff Asness article from AQR)
50:48 – Announcement of future podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 2020
53:47 – Question 1: Mike; How would you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long-Volatility strategy?
57:50 – Question 2 Drew; Does the strategy of buying into a Trend Following fund during its drawdowns count as a form of Value Investing, and therefore, hypocritical to Trend Following philosophy?
01:03:37 – Benchmark performance update
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