Tim Harford and the More or Less team try to make sense of the statistics which surround us. From BBC Radio 4
As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer and Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Has the US really sent Ukraine $350 billion for its war effort? Is a $500billion cut of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals a good deal? How will the UK fund the governments ambitions to raise defence spending to 3%? But most important of all - how many muscles are in an elephant’s trunk? Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown...
As negotiations to end the Ukraine war rumble on, Donald Trump seems equally interested in talking about the past, repeatedly claiming that the US has given much more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, and that Europe’s aid took the form of a loan that they’ll be getting back. Emmanuel Macron has publicly contradicted the US President - so who’s correct? Nathan Gower speaks to Taro Nishikawa, project lead at the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker to get the true picture. Presenter / Producer:...
Last week Elon Musk revealed that he had been through the Social Security Agencies database and found millions of people aged over 100. The vast majority of these people are dead, but their accounts and social security numbers remain live. Elon claimed that he had uncovered ‘the biggest fraud ever’ prompting some news outlets to speculate that billions of dollars might be being paid to these dead people every month. But is it true? We look at whether this is new information and what the data act...
On the 25th January, the US Press Secretary announced that in their bid to stop ‘fraud’ and waste DOGE had cancelled $50 million worth of condoms being sent to Gaza by the United States Agency for International Development (aka USAID). President Trump later repeated this claim, adding on that Hamas were using said condoms to make bombs to fire at Israel. On the 7th of February the USAID website was taken down. We fact check this claim and find out how much of the US budget was spent on USAID pro...
Babies born in the US to Black Hispanic or African American mothers are more likely to die than any other ethnic group in America. That is a fact. But the reason why this happens is unclear. In 2020 a study came out that claimed that black babies attended by white doctors after birth were twice as likely to die than white babies attended by white doctors. People jumped to the conclusion that the race of the doctor was leading to the different outcomes. But when you delve into the numbers, a very...
Google claim their latest quantum computer chip is able to process something in five minutes it would take a normal computer 10 septillion years to figure out. As this is a massive amount longer than the entire history of the known universe, that seems to suggest the chip is extremely powerful. But when you understand what’s going on, the claim doesn’t seem quite so impressive. Dr Peter Leek, a quantum computer scientist from Oxford University, explains the key context. Presenter: Charlotte McDo...
Just before being inaugurated as US president for the second time, Donald Trump launched something called a “meme-coin”. This is a bespoke cryptocurrency token featuring a picture of Donald Trump. A billion of them may eventually be created. Newspaper headlines claimed that the Trump meme-coin had made the president billions of dollars wealthier. But it is far from clear that this is the case. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinato...
What has the colour of your hair got to do with your capacity to withstand pain? We investigate the claim, which regularly circulates on social media, that natural redheads are 25% tougher than their brunette peers. Pain expert Jeff Mogil explains how it all comes down to something called MC1R. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison
The claim that 79% of asylum seekers in Sweden go on holiday in their home country has been repeated regularly on social media. It’s used to argue that recent refugees are being disingenuous about the danger they face in the country they have fled from. But when you look at the survey the claim is based on, you see the stat in a very different way. We speak to Hjalmar Strid, who ran the survey for polling company Novus, and Tino Sanandaji from Bulletin, the online news site which published it. P...
We asked and you responded, this edition of ‘numbers of the year’ are from you. our loyal listeners. We scoured the inboxes to find three fascinating numbers that say something about the world we live in now and put them to our experts. Tune if you want to hear about rising global temperatures, what Taylor Swift has in common with 65 years olds and facts about fax (machines). Contributors: Amanda Maycock, University of Leeds Jennifer Dowd, University of Oxford Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Repor...
It’s that time of year again, the time when we ask some of our favourite statistically-inclined people for their numbers of the year. We present them to you - from falling birth rates in India to children saved by vaccines. Contributors: RukminiS, Data for India Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University, Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Vicky Baker Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Donald Mc...
“Say what you like about Mussolini but he did make the trains run on time.” This phrase is the political equivalent of “every cloud has a silver lining” – but does it have any factual basis? Mussolini’s dictatorship in Italy was full of atrocities, brutal suppression and propaganda. Did it also create a more efficient railway network? We speak to Professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat about the truth of the claim and why the Mussolini regime wanted us to believe it. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Lizzy Mc...
Are most Americans barely holding their head above water when it comes to personal finances? That’s what various US politicians and news outlets keep suggesting. They can’t stop using a statistic about people living “paycheck to paycheck”. But what does this really mean? We go behind the headlines to unpick the numbers. Contributor: Ben Krauss, journalist Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound...
When World War Two came to Greece, a period of terrible human suffering followed. There was a brutal battle with Italian and then Nazi forces, followed by an occupation in which thousands were executed and a terrible famine swept the nation. There’s an often repeated number that appears to capture the brutality of this time – that 10% of the Greek population died during the war. We investigate where this statistic comes from and whether it is true. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Tom Col...
President Elect Donald Trump has created a new government advisory group – the Department of Government Efficiency or ‘DOGE’ - to help cut the US budget. The world richest man, Elon Musk, will co-head the department and has pledged to cut ‘at least $2 trillion’ to ‘balance the budget’. But is this possible? We talk to Professor Linda Bilmes about what DOGE could or couldn’t do and how she balanced the budget in the 1990’s. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: To...
Governments around the world have promised to fight climate change. But are they also pumping an absolutely massive amount of money into subsidies for fossil fuels? In 2022, an IMF working paper estimated that global subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $7 trillion. But when you dig into that research, you find that this number might not mean what you think it does. We explain how they reached that conclusion, with the help of Angela Picciariello from the International Institute for Sustainable D...
Just hours after Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, rumours started swirling that something was afoot. A graph went viral on social media that appeared to show there were 20 million more votes cast in 2020 than in the 2024 election. Where had these supposedly “missing” votes gone? Conspiracy theorists on both sides of the political spectrum began shouting claims of fraud. The answer, it turns out, is rather more straightforward. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: ...
A huge quantity of clothing is produced every year around the world. But is so much made that there are already enough tops, trousers, skirts and all the rest to clothe humanity for decades into the future? That’s a claim that has been percolating around the internet recently, that there are already enough clothes for the next six generations. Tim Harford and Beth Ashmead Latham explore the source of this claim and, with help from Sabina Lawreniuk from Nottingham University, find that the eviden...
The great theories of economics seem to have great explanatory power, but the actual world is often far too complicated and messy to fully test them out. Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics has an answer – sport. In the contained setting of competitive sport, he says, the rules are clear and you know who is doing what. This means, with some analysis, you can see vibrant illustrations of well-known economic theories playing out before your eyes. Ignac...
Could the cut in winter fuel payments cost thousands of lives? Is it really true that criminals sentenced to three years will be out of prison in two months? Are older drivers more dangerous than young ones? Do Southeastern Railway shift 50 million leaves from their lines? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Bethan Ashmead Latham and Nathan Gower Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison ...
On the campaign trail for the US presidency, former president Donald Trump has been saying that the US is becoming a more dangerous than Venezuela. He also claims that the crime data for the US that the FBI collects is missing the most violent cities. Is he right? Tim Harford investigates, with the help of Bastian Herre from Our World in Data and Jay Albanese from Virginia Commonwealth University. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ord...
Was an MP wrong about the number of people who pay capital gains tax? Why is 2% the magic number for the rate of inflation? Donald Trump says US crime figures are fake. Are they? How do you work out how many buffaloberries a bear eats in a day? And we fact-check a claim about the prevalence of suicide among GPs. For information and support follow this link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/actionline Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower an...
The question of why some countries are rich and some poor has been described as the most important question in economics. Perhaps that is why the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on the importance of institutions in the economic fortunes of nation states. Tim Harford explains the economic theory that underpins their award. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Tim Harford Producer:...
Can we teach BBC political editor Chris Mason some new maths skills? Do 60 of the UK’s richest people pay 100% tax? Have water bills fallen in real terms since 2010? When it comes to HPV and cervical cancer, is zero a small number? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is one of the great communicators of probability and uncertainty. His new book, The Art of Uncertainty, explains how to approach uncertainty, luck, probability and ignorance. Tim Harford talks to Sir David about double yoked eggs, the Bay of Pigs, and his top tips for politicians who want to communicate evidence and uncertainty. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon...
Are childhood obesity rates going down? Do 35 million birds die every year in the UK after hitting windows? How much money could the Chancellor find by changing the debt rule? And Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter contemplates the probability of his own conception. Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte MacDonald Producers: Bethan Ashmead Latham, Natasha Fernandes and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-...
National Geographic magazine recently wrote that “people in the United States eat more than 672 billion pounds of corn per year, which breaks down to more than 2,000 pounds per person annually”. Is this really true? Tim Harford investigates all the things that we don’t eat, that are counted in this number. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon
Are GPs really working less hours per week? Does Wetherspoons really pay one in every £1000 of tax in the UK? Are more people in the UK economically inactive? How long does it take two rats to produce 17 octillion rats? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon...
Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion? That’s the subject of Alex Bellos’ new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive. Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon
