We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results ...
Jun 28, 2021•2 hr 30 min•Transcript available on Metacast Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical T...
Jun 20, 2021•1 hr 18 min•Transcript available on Metacast Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good tradi...
Jun 13, 2021•1 hr 22 min•Transcript available on Metacast Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, ...
Jun 07, 2021•1 hr 26 min•Transcript available on Metacast What happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside? Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events. Jason has been a long-time listener of the show, so it was only right that I invited him on to discuss s...
Jun 01, 2021•1 hr 18 min•Transcript available on Metacast Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot f...
May 30, 2021•1 hr 29 min•Transcript available on Metacast Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘...
May 23, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Transcript available on Metacast Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven m...
May 16, 2021•1 hr 12 min•Transcript available on Metacast Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the p...
May 09, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Transcript available on Metacast We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Follow...
May 03, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Transcript available on Metacast Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some ...
Apr 25, 2021•1 hr 21 min•Transcript available on Metacast Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES V...
Apr 18, 2021•1 hr 12 min•Transcript available on Metacast Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategie...
Apr 11, 2021•1 hr 17 min•Transcript available on Metacast Jerry Parker is back on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO F...
Apr 04, 2021•1 hr 5 min•Transcript available on Metacast Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND B...
Mar 29, 2021•1 hr 21 min•Transcript available on Metacast Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making, ...
Mar 21, 2021•1 hr 29 min•Transcript available on Metacast Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND...
Mar 14, 2021•1 hr 10 min•Transcript available on Metacast We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if s...
Mar 07, 2021•1 hr 23 min•Transcript available on Metacast We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on ...
Feb 28, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Transcript available on Metacast Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on t...
Feb 22, 2021•1 hr 18 min•Transcript available on Metacast Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion. ----- 50 YEARS OF T...
Feb 15, 2021•1 hr 5 min•Transcript available on Metacast Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ...
Feb 07, 2021•2 hr 38 min•Transcript available on Metacast Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, the increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive i...
Jan 31, 2021•1 hr 19 min•Transcript available on Metacast Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whet...
Jan 24, 2021•1 hr 2 min•Transcript available on Metacast In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures. Questions we answer this week ...
Jan 18, 2021•1 hr 25 min•Transcript available on Metacast We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, naviga...
Jan 10, 2021•1 hr 22 min•Transcript available on Metacast In this episode, I conclude my special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system. I also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twi...
Jan 06, 2021•36 min•Transcript available on Metacast In today’s special episode, I go deep into how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program. I also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SC...
Jan 02, 2021•37 min•Transcript available on Metacast Today we welcome back Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments...
Dec 21, 2020•1 hr 22 min•Transcript available on Metacast Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the...
Dec 13, 2020•1 hr 14 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
