Things have changed a lot over the last 12 months. At the beginning of 2023, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were still deadlocked. Now, the Conservatives have a decisive lead as the Liberals try to figure out where to go from here. Plus, Bonnie Crombie has become the new leader of the Ontario Liberals. What impact will that have on politics in the province? This week, I’m joined again by a panel of season political pollsters. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at ...
Dec 08, 2023•39 min
This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. We've got listener questions and, of course, The Quiz. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you...
Dec 01, 2023•1 hr 14 min
This weekend, voting will start for the Ontario Liberal leadership as the contest between Bonnie Crombie, Nate Erskine-Smith, Yasir Naqvi and Ted Hsu reaches its final stage. The result will be announced on December 2. But before the winner is revealed, voting will also take place in the riding of Kitchener Centre, where a provincial byelection is scheduled for November 30. Joining me this week to break down all the latest in Ontario politics are Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer and Jessic...
Nov 24, 2023•31 min
We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race and new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here . Every second episode of The N...
Nov 17, 2023•1 hr 11 min
The Liberals have held sway in Newfoundland and Labrador ever since the federal and provincial parties won the elections of 2015. But that could be changing. The latest polls suggest Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives might turn the province blue, and while Premier Andrew Furey’s Liberals are still narrowly ahead in provincial voting intentions, they now face a new challenger as the opposition PCs have a new leader. Joining me this week to chat about the political scene in Newfoundland and L...
Nov 10, 2023•32 min
On this episode of The Numbers , Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts me on the spot. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here . Every second episode of The Numbers (the episode...
Nov 03, 2023•1 hr 4 min
There has been a lot of movement in the polls over the last few months. But who are the people behind those numbers? Joining me this week on The Writ Podcast is David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data . He’s compiled data from his recent surveys to give us a deep dive into how voters have migrated since 2021 and what each party’s electoral coalition looks like today. (If you missed yesterday’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here .) In addition to listenin...
Oct 27, 2023•40 min
This week, Philippe J. Fournier and I chat about some new polling numbers on Justin Trudeau's leadership and we dissect the NDP's prospects coming out of the convention, where Jagmeet Singh scored 81% on his leadership review. We also discuss just how much Teflon is coating Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs, and answer listener questions — including whether any party could win a landslide the size of John Diefenbaker's or Brian Mulroney's. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early ac...
Oct 20, 2023•50 min
It’s been an eventful few weeks since Parliament returned, as foreign affairs have injected themselves into our domestic politics. And last week, Manitoba held a historic election that could have some lessons for parties outside of the province. To break it all down, I’m joined again by the political pollster panel. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three ...
Oct 13, 2023•45 min
We break down the results of the Manitoba provincial election and the Quebec byelection in Jean-Talon, as well as some new polling numbers out of Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. We also answer listener questions (can the Conservatives ever win in Montreal?) and present our numbers of the week. To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays, you can become a member of our Patreon site here . Starting next week, every second episode of The...
Oct 06, 2023•57 min
With just days to go before the Manitoba election comes to a close, the polls suggest it could be Wab Kinew and the NDP’s to lose. But can Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives hold on to win a third consecutive victory? To discuss these final stages of the Manitoba campaign, I’m joined by Curtis Brown , principal at Probe Research, Ian Froese , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba, and Kelly Saunders , associate professor in the department of political science at Brandon Un...
Sep 29, 2023•33 min
We discuss just how well Canadians know the names of the Conservative leader and the members of the Liberal cabinet, as well as news about India, the creation of a new federal party, the latest Manitoba polls and a potential snap election in New Brunswick. Plus, we answer listener questions and Philippe has another quiz for Éric. To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays, you can become a Patron at our Patreon site here . As always, in add...
Sep 22, 2023•58 min
Manitoba’s election campaign is underway and is setting up to be a close contest between Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives and Wab Kinew’s New Democrats — so close, in fact, that Dougald Lamont’s Liberals could end up with the balance of power. To discuss this first stage of the Manitoba campaign, I’m joined by Curtis Brown , principal at Probe Research, Ian Froese , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba, and Kelly Saunders , associate professor in the department of polit...
Sep 15, 2023•33 min
In this first episode of The Numbers , a collaboration between myself and Philippe J. Fournier, we do a rundown of the latest federal polling and what it means for the three major parties. We also discuss the Conservative convention, the impact of the Greenbelt controversy on the Ontario PCs, the early days of the Manitoba election and the upcoming provincial byelection in Jean-Talon. We then answer some listener questions and Philippe subjects me to a little quiz. As always, in addition to list...
Sep 08, 2023•1 hr 1 min
It’s a break week here at The Writ , but things are about to get pretty busy this fall season with the launch of two new podcasts: The Numbers and Les chiffres ! Philippe J. Fournier and I are really excited to start these two new projects, and we hope that you’ll be just as excited for them as we are. You can find more information about The Numbers and Les chiffres at our website here . We also wrote some introductory posts for The Numbers and Les chiffres that you might want to check out. Take...
Sep 01, 2023•9 min
When the cameras get switched off in the House of Commons, the work of an MP doesn’t stop — and that includes over the summer months when politics might be the furthest thing from anyone’s mind. To give us an idea of what life is like for an MP away from Parliament Hill, I’m joined this week by two Members of Parliament: Dan Albas , Conservative MP for the B.C. riding of Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola, and Greg Fergus , Liberal MP for the Quebec seat of Hull–Aylmer. (Note that this episode ...
Aug 25, 2023•35 min
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has used the summer to try a new look and launch a new ad campaign designed to introduce him to voters — will it work, and what is it trying to achieve? Plus, the fall political season is fast approaching. So what do each of the parties have to do in the coming months as politics start to heat up again in Ottawa? To answer these questions, two-thirds of the political pollster panel has been re-convened and I’m joined by Dan Arnold and Andrew Enns. (James Valc...
Aug 18, 2023•43 min
With less than two months to go before election day in Manitoba, the polls are suggesting the race could be neck-and-neck between Heather Stefanson’s governing Progressive Conservatives and the opposition New Democrats under Wab Kinew. To help set us up for the Manitoba election campaign which is only weeks away from officially getting started, I’m joined this week by Niigaan Sinclair and Dan Lett , hosts of the Niigaan and the Lone Ranger podcast. You can check out their podcast here. As always...
Aug 11, 2023•42 min
On Thursday, three byelections will answer two questions in Saskatchewan politics: 1) Are cracks in the conservative coalition that makes up the governing Saskatchewan Party starting to form? 2) Will the Saskatchewan New Democrats show any signs that they can win the kind of seats they need if they are to ever return to power? To help set up the three provincial byelections in Regina Walsh Acres, Regina Coronation Park and Lumsden-Morse, I’m joined this week by Adam Hunter , the CBC’s provincial...
Aug 04, 2023•28 min
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau didn’t just shuffle his cabinet — he overhauled it, replacing seven ministers and changing the roles of most of the others. A simple refresh ahead of the next election or an admission that things weren’t working? To discuss what it all means, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry . As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts , you can also wat...
Jul 28, 2023•44 min
Two hotly-contested byelections and a Liberal leadership race that is heating up — politics in Ontario isn’t taking a break for the summer! So, joining me to break down all the latest from the OLP leadership contest and what to watch in the upcoming byelections in Kanata–Carleton and Scarborough–Guildwood is Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer . Plus: Join me at 9 PM on July 27 for a livestream of the byelection results as they come in. You can find the livestream here. See you there! As alwa...
Jul 21, 2023•36 min
It’s the height of summer and that isn’t always when lots of political news is produced. So, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a summer mailbag episode, answering some of the questions we got from listeners and readers, including (but not limited to!): * What’s the lowest the Liberals could go and still have a chance win the most seats? * Will there be a federal election in 2023? * What will bring the CAQ down, if anything can? * Who will win the Ontario Liberal lead...
Jul 14, 2023•52 min
Caucus revolts, ministerial resignations, cabinet shuffles, leadership challenges and the threat of an early election — you don’t need to go much further than New Brunswick to get your fill of political drama. Premier Blaine Higgs has been facing down opponents within his caucus and within his party over the last few weeks. The spark was a proposed change to laws regarding LGBTQ students but the turmoil goes far deeper than that, as some members of his Progressive Conservative government and par...
Jul 07, 2023•34 min
With the House of Commons adjourned for the summer, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government is now heading into the back half of its four year mandate. Where do things stand at this midway point, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives move ahead in the polls and Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats prop up the Liberals in the minority parliament? Joining me this week to take stock of the state of federal politics nearly two years after the last election is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry . As always, in addition to li...
Jun 30, 2023•37 min
With Saint-Jean-Baptiste Day now upon us, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a little game — a draft of Quebec’s best (and most notorious?) premiers! Who makes it No. 1? Which premier gets drafted higher than of the scouts had him? After listening, let us know which team of premiers you think is the best team! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe...
Jun 23, 2023•39 min
Polls are ubiquitous in Canadian election campaigns, but that wasn’t always the case. Before political polling arrived in the 1940s, journalists and politicians had to go about gauging public opinion differently. But once polls made their way here, they became an indispensable part of Canadian politics. Joining me this week to tell the story of the development of polling in Canada is Christopher Adams , rector of St. Paul’s College and adjunct professor in political studies at the University of ...
Jun 16, 2023•48 min
With just a few weeks to go before Toronto chooses its next mayor, the polls are giving a big lead to Olivia Chow, former NDP MP and the third-place finisher in 2014’s mayoral race. So, is this election Olivia Chow’s to lose? To set up this last stage of the mayoral campaign, I’m joined again by Matt Elliott, a contributing columnist to the Toronto Star and publisher of the City Hall Watcher newsletter. As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast...
Jun 09, 2023•29 min
Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives secured a majority government in Monday’s Alberta election, defeating Rachel Notley’s New Democrats. How did the UCP’s win come about, what does it mean for politics in Alberta and what are the implications for Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre? Separately, what are the politics surrounding David Johnston’s inquiry into foreign interference in Canada’s elections? Back on the podcast to break it all down, I’m joined by the political pollsters: Dan Arnold, A...
Jun 02, 2023•48 min
We’re down to the final days of Alberta’s election campaign and it could be close. Will Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives hold on for re-election, or will Rachel Notley’s New Democrats mount a comeback? First, I’m joined by The Globe and Mail ’s Calgary-based columnist Kelly Cryderman to discuss how this campaign has unfolded. Then, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to go over the electoral map with me. Finally, on Monday night starting at 8 PM MT / 10 PM ET you can join me for s...
May 26, 2023•38 min
There will be four federal byelections on June 19 in the ridings of Winnipeg South Centre, Portage–Lisgar, Oxford and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, all four of them solid seats for the incumbent Conservatives and Liberals. But in addition to being a mid-term test for all parties, the byelections will also have a few party leaders on the ballot: PPC leader Maxime Bernier in Portage–Lisgar and Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount. So, what should we expect in these ...
May 19, 2023•38 min
