The merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Party was supposed to end the split of the right in Alberta’s politics. But while the United Conservative Party has successfully prevented another right-of-centre party from rising to prominence in the province, it hasn’t stopped divisions forming within its own organization. Joining me this week on the podcast is the CBC’s Jason Markusoff , who has looked into the rise of the Take Back Alberta group that has tried to influence the dir...
May 12, 2023•28 min
The first week of the Alberta election campaign is nearly over — and it’s been off to a slow start. So, who is coming out ahead in the early going and just how engaged are voters in this tight contest? To break down Week 1, I’m joined by Elise von Scheel , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Calgary, and Lisa Young , professor of political science at the University of Calgary and author of the What Now?!? newsletter. As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWr...
May 05, 2023•30 min
With just days to go before the starting pistol goes off on Alberta’s campaign, I’m joined this week by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to break down where things stand in this hotly-contested election. We also chat about some other recent news, including François Legault’s decision to go back on his promise of a third link between Quebec City and Lévis for motorists, the results of the New Brunswick byelections, the re-branding of the B.C. Liberals and is it majority or bust for Pierre Po...
Apr 28, 2023•41 min
Did you know that Toronto is a big city? It’s true! If it were a province, it would rank fifth on the list. More people live in Toronto than in all of Atlantic Canada or in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. And on June 26, Torontonians will be going to the polls in the biggest byelection in Canadian history. Voters will have lots of options for John Tory’s replacement, as there are dozens of candidates on the ballot. The list of real contenders is shorter — but still really long. To weed out the preten...
Apr 21, 2023•30 min
It’s been 10 years since Justin Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. That not only makes him one of today’s longest-serving party leaders in the country, it also puts him on a short list of historic Liberal leaders: only Lester Pearson, Jean Chrétien, Pierre Trudeau, Mackenzie King and Wilfrid Laurier have held the job longer than Justin Trudeau has. He says he will lead the Liberals into the next election, but a decade is already more than enough time to leave a mark. To discus...
Apr 14, 2023•40 min
What should we make of the recommendation from Elections Ontario to ban the publication of polls in the last two weeks of an election campaign? And the Prince Edward Island election earlier this week has got me thinking about the links between provincial and federal politics. How do voters separate, if it all, their partisan attachment to parties at the two levels of government? The party pollsters are back to discuss. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director of research and ...
Apr 07, 2023•40 min
Dennis King’s Progressive Conservatives kicked off the Prince Edward Island election campaign with a big lead in the polls, seemingly leaving the only real battle to be between Peter Bevan-Baker’s Greens and Sharon Cameron’s Liberals for official opposition status. But are King’s PCs still on track for a big majority win, maybe even a sweep? Or did any of the campaign’s controversies or this past week’s leaders debate change the dial? Back to wrap this campaign is Stuart Neatby , political repor...
Mar 31, 2023•28 min
Will Joe Biden’s visit to Ottawa this week be his last as U.S. president? With the 2024 election looming, it is still an open question whether or not Biden will run again as the Democratic nominee. If he does, who will be his opponent? And, if it is Donald Trump again, can he beat him a second time? Those are questions for the future. For now, the focus will be on the state of U.S.-Canada relations, and what might come out of Biden’s visit. To tackle both where things stand now and where they co...
Mar 24, 2023•36 min
Has the Chinese election interference moved the dial in the polls? And what are each party’s incentives (or disincentives) in forcing an election this spring? What about where things stand ahead of the upcoming Alberta election or in the midst of Prince Edward Island’s campaign? And what to make of an upset in a Quebec byelection this week? Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com (and L’actualité and POLITICO Canada) is back on the podcast this week to chat with me about all this and everything in...
Mar 17, 2023•51 min
Canada’s smallest province wasn’t supposed to hold its next election until the fall, but earlier this week Premier Dennis King pulled the plug on his government and set April 3 as the date for Prince Edward Island’s provincial election. There’s plenty to watch as this campaign unfolds. Will King’s gamble pay off for his Progressive Conservatives? Can the Greens repeat their breakthrough from 2019 that catapulted them to official opposition status for the first time anywhere in Canada? And will t...
Mar 10, 2023•36 min
With an election only a few months away, this week’s Alberta budget can’t be anything but an election budget. Will Premier Danielle Smith’s plan for the province help her win in May, or does it provide an opening for Rachel Notley and her New Democrats? To break down what the budget means for Alberta and the election, I’m joined this week by Elise von Scheel , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Calgary, and Trevor Tombe , professor of economics at the University of Calgary. As always, in a...
Mar 03, 2023•29 min
The polls haven’t been in agreement lately, so where do things really stand? What role does health care play in public opinion and politics — both at the federal and provincial levels? How are things looking ahead of Alberta’s provincial election, and what about those reports about Chinese interference in the 2021 federal vote? Joining me to tackle all of these questions are three party pollsters, Dan Arnold, Andrew Enns and James Valcke. Dan, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director of ...
Feb 24, 2023•37 min
From billions of dollars in new healthcare spending to what seems like an endless stream of Chinese balloons and/or extraterrestrial incursions into Canadian airspace, there’s plenty of news to discuss in federal politics. Plus, there’s that bombshell resignation of John Tory in Toronto. So, joining me to chat about it all this week is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Shannon Proudfoot of The Globe and Mail . (My apologies for the poorer audio quality than usual in this episode.) As always, in additio...
Feb 17, 2023•43 min
The Ontario Liberals are looking for a new leader. Four potential candidates from within their provincial and federal ranks have expressed an interest. Also thinking about it? Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green Party of Ontario. That’s because a group of Ontario Liberals think they’d be better off with Schreiner and have said so in a public letter. It’s a bizarre and unprecedented move for some from a party that governed as recently as 2018 to see a saviour in the leader of a party who has neve...
Feb 10, 2023•36 min
The results are in — and they’re surprising. Polling conducted by Pollara and covered at The Writ over the last two weeks showed who Canadians think was the greatest prime minister and opposition leader in our history. But the results didn’t line up with the usual rankings made by historians and political scientists. What does that say about how Canadians remember their own history? I’m joined this week on The Writ Podcast by Dan Arnold , chief strategy officer at Pollara, and Stephen Azzi , pro...
Feb 03, 2023•31 min
Since Pierre Poilievre became the leader of the Conservative Party last September, his appearances in English-language media have been relatively infrequent and very targeted. But in Quebec, Poilievre has been much more present as he tries to get better known, and better liked, in the province. So what are the challenges Poilievre and the Conservatives face in Quebec — and what are their realistic prospects? To discuss Pierre Poilievre’s attempt at a grande séduction of Quebec, I’m joined this w...
Jan 27, 2023•30 min
While it might not have the drama and potential national repercussions of Alberta’s election in May, Manitoba’s provincial election in October could prove to be 2023’s big shift. The Progressive Conservatives have governed the province since 2016 and were re-elected under Brian Pallister in 2019. But the PCs have been trailing in the polls for years. A change at the top in late 2021, when Heather Stefanson was named as Pallister’s replacement, hasn’t changed things. That makes this year’s electi...
Jan 20, 2023•31 min
Barring an addition to 2023’s electoral calendar, the big political contest of this year will be Alberta’s provincial election. The polls are suggesting the race will be tight between Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives and Rachel Notley’s New Democrats — perhaps as tight as any election in Alberta in 30 years. Back on The Writ Podcast to set us up for the showdown is Elise von Scheel , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Calgary. Also joining the show is Lisa Young, professor of politica...
Jan 13, 2023•32 min
The Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition is an underrated role in our parliamentary system. Whoever is in it normally tries to use it as an audition for the top job — but their function is a vital one in our democracy that is often overlooked. Until today. With the political season still a little quiet, the CBC’s Aaron Wherry has joined me to play a little game: Opposition Leader Draft! We’ll dig through the history books to draft our fantasy opposition front bench — and chat a little about ...
Jan 06, 2023•44 min
It’s that time of year again! Last year, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com joined me for a little friendly competition to see who could best predict what would happen in politics in 2022. Well, the results are in — and the title is up for grabs again in 2023. So, join us for this game of over/under as we guess what will happen in federal politics next year as well as in the provincial elections scheduled in Alberta, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island. As always, in addition to listening to th...
Dec 23, 2022•50 min
On Monday, the Liberals won the Mississauga–Lakeshore byelection, holding a seat that the Conservatives will need to win if they ever form a government. Do the results have any broader implications? And where do the federal parties sit as they end 2022 and look ahead to 2023? Plus — what to make of the Manitoba provincial byelection results in Kirkfield Park? Joining me this week to chat about it all are two former party pollsters, Dan Arnold and Andrew Enns. Dan, now chief strategy officer at P...
Dec 16, 2022•42 min
It’s been three months since Pierre Poilievre won the Conservative leadership race and took over as leader of the official opposition. So, it’s about time to see how he’s doing so far. To help me do that on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast , I’m joined again by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies and Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy . And, to guide our performance evaluation of the new Conservative leader, we’re going to rely on the bestselling business book, The First 90 Days , by Michael D....
Dec 09, 2022•42 min
Every decade, Canada’s electoral map has to be redrawn to account for the country’s growing and moving population. The decisions made by the non-partisan commissions have big implications for our democracy — and the political futures of our MPs. So how does this process work? And how is it not working as well as it could? Joining me this week to discuss this is Michael Pal, associate professor in the faculty of law at the University of Ottawa and a recognized expert in this field. As always, in ...
Dec 02, 2022•28 min
It’s a big week at the Rouleau inquiry looking into the use of the Emergencies Act earlier this year, with cabinet ministers and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testifying. But has the inquiry changed any minds — and will Justice Paul Rouleau’s findings have any political consequences on the Liberals or the opposition parties? Speaking of which, one of those parties has chosen a new leader — sort of. After a brief and tumultuous interregnum, Elizabeth May is back at the helm of the Green Party (wi...
Nov 25, 2022•32 min
It’s time for the second question-and-answer episode of The Writ Podcast, in which I tackle a few questions submitted by subscribers to The Writ . Here’s a sampling of some of the questions answered in this episode: * Would a change of leader boost Liberal support? * How do Pierre Poilievre’s post-leadership polling numbers compare to his predecessors? * Does the Alberta NDP have a path to government that includes seats outside of Calgary and Edmonton? * If I could cover the politics of any othe...
Nov 18, 2022•34 min
Labour tensions have been high in Ontario, after Doug Ford’s government brought in a bill that imposed a contract on education workers and banned them from going on strike, invoking the notwithstanding clause in the process. That didn’t prevent schools in much of the province from shutting down for two days and Ford subsequently backed down, promised to repeal the legislation and is back at the negotiating table. This comes only a few months since the Ontario PCs made inroads among working class...
Nov 11, 2022•28 min
In the U.S. midterms on Tuesday, the Republicans are expected to take control of the House and the Democrats have little better than even odds of holding the Senate. But with rising polarization and election denialism, there’s more at stake in Tuesday’s vote than whether the red or blue team will come out ahead. Joining me on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast is Nathaniel Rakich , senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight . Nathaniel breaks down the races to watch on Tuesday and together...
Nov 04, 2022•44 min
Is the way we choose our party leaders broken? With Danielle Smith becoming Alberta’s premier without the backing of caucus (or voters) and the B.C. NDP disqualifying Anjali Appadurai from its leadership race, thereby giving the contest to caucus favourite David Eby by default, there’s reason to think that it might be. Ballots were cast in municipal elections in Ontario and Manitoba this week, but could these campaigns have been better served with political parties? Big cities like Vancouver and...
Oct 28, 2022•37 min
The B.C. New Democrats were expecting a coronation. Instead, they got a controversy. Shortly after B.C. Premier John Horgan announced his impending resignation, it appeared that cabinet minister David Eby would be acclaimed as his replacement. Nearly the entire NDP caucus had lined-up behind Eby and no one else had come forward. That changed when climate activist Anjali Appadurai, who had run as a candidate for the federal NDP in the 2021 election, threw her hat in the ring. Eby’s sleepy campaig...
Oct 21, 2022•18 min
After a raucous campaign, Danielle Smith won the United Conservative Party leadership last Thursday and was sworn in as the new premier of Alberta on Tuesday. That was the easy part. Now, Smith faces keeping together a caucus that has not always lived up to the “united” in the party name, following through on some of her controversial leadership campaign promises and preparing for a general election scheduled to be held in less than eight months. On this episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by...
Oct 14, 2022•32 min
