This week’s podcast is about political risk in China tech, but really it is about how to think systematically about the role of the State. And about making investment decisions on uncertain terrains. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Here are five investment approaches to uncertain environments. Stay out. Buy and sell fast. Focus on quantitative certainties. Tangible assets. Focus on really great businesses. And qualitative factors. Buy and hold th...
Jul 26, 2021•44 min•Season 1Ep. 92
This week’s podcast is about Warren Buffett and combining competitive advantage with compounding. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Slides are on my webpage. —–— Related articles: I Took 20 Peking University Students to Lunch with Warren Buffett (Again). Here’s What Happened. (Pt 1 of 4) 3 Life Lessons from Lunch with Warren Buffett From the Concept Library , concepts for this article are: Compounding Competitive Advantage From the Company Library ...
Jul 20, 2021•41 min•Season 1Ep. 91
This week’s podcast is about Dingdong, a specialty ecommerce player in China focused on fresh groceries. It has gone public while still operating profit negative - but brings to mind a similar situation with Meituan at IPO. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . —–--- Related articles: Should Vipshop Build a Logistics Network Like JD? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 7) The Pros and Cons of Farfetch’s Global Luxury Marketplace (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class –...
Jul 13, 2021•48 min•Season 1Ep. 90
This week’s podcast is about Full Truck Alliance, a B2B marketplace platform for freight and cargo. There are a lot of lessons on the difficulties and complexities of matching, pricing and network effects for more complicated services. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Here are the pages from the F-1 filing I mentioned. Questions for simple network effects : Local vs. regional vs. international network effects? Fast vs. slow network effects? Direct...
Jul 05, 2021•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 89
This week’s podcast is about Skillz and Electronic Arts. There are some interesting and evolving strategy aspects to gaming - especially as it goes to multiplayer and tournaments. And as Skillz opens up tournament gaming based on cash rewards, the question is how far into gambling is this going to go? You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas —–— Related articles: Ant Financial and the 3 Types of Network E...
Jun 29, 2021•53 min•Season 1Ep. 88
This week’s podcast is about Didi's upcoming IPO. They have released their numbers and it shows market dominance but operating losses. This is my explanation for what is happening. And what their strategic plan means. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . How I breakdown: Market size and/or growth Competitive strength and defensibility Unit economics Questions for network effects: Local vs. regional vs. international network effects? Fast vs. slow...
Jun 21, 2021•56 min•Season 1Ep. 87
This week’s podcast is about separating networks (an asset) from platforms (a business model) from network effects (a phenomenon). And the three standard types of network effects. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . I put network effects into 3 types: Direct (One-Sided) Network Effects Indirect (Two-Sided) Network Effects Standardization and Interoperability Network Effects I put networks into 3 types: Physical Networks Protocol Networks People Netwo...
Jun 16, 2021•56 min•Season 1Ep. 86
This week’s podcast is about "criticality" as a type of switching cost. And specifically about Wabco, one of Warren Buffett's companies that has fairly powerful B2B criticality. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . ——– Related articles: Waze, Google Maps and How Warren Buffett Made 50% on a Map Company (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Daily Update) Warren Buffett On Becoming a Better Person (Daily Lesson – Jeff’s Asia Tech Class) From the Conc...
Jun 07, 2021•46 min•Season 1Ep. 85
This week’s podcast is about how traditionally great logistics businesses like DHL and JD Logistics are doing major digital upgrades. It's a big unknown but it all looks pretty attractive. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . —----- Related articles: JD Logistics and the Dream of Smart, Automated Logistics at Scale (1 of 2) (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Update) Will JD Logistics Become a New Type of Ecosystem? (Asia Tech Strategy – Podcast 71) From...
Jun 03, 2021•41 min•Season 1Ep. 84
This week's podcast is about the US-China DTC retailer Shein, which has rocketed upwards in the past months. Analysts are starting to pay close attention - but consumers have been noticing this company for a while. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The mentioned article by Packy McCormick and Matthew Brennan is Shein: The TikTok of Ecommerce. —–—- Related articles: JD and Competitive Advantages vs. Entry Barriers in China Retail (Daily Lesson ...
May 25, 2021•51 min•Season 1Ep. 83
This podcast is about Alibaba's 2020 earnings and the strategy implications. But it is really about how Alibaba is positioned as a "product / service + commerce infrastructure" business. And whether ByteDance can break into Chinese ecommerce with an "attention + mini programs strategy". It's really a cool and important question. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The cited Alibaba presentations are here: AliViews: Danie...
May 17, 2021•53 min•Season 1Ep. 82
This podcast is about the super cool economics of Adobe Inc. And how they capture the economics of digital by also building strong competitive moats. In Adobe's case, it's mostly network effects and bundling. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The digital economics terms cited are: Zero marginal production costs. Low distribution costs. Non-rival goods that can be simultaneously used. Global scalability at low cost. Versioning. Multiple ve...
May 10, 2021•59 min•Season 1Ep. 81
Competitive advantages can be build on the demand and the supply side. And advantages on the demand (i.e., revenue) side are usually about customer capture in some form. One general category for this is when a company captures a "share of the consumer mind." In this talk, I go into how some companies do this for their own benefit. And against the interests of the consumer. I call these types of competitive advantages "evil moats". You can listen to this podcast here or at iTu...
May 01, 2021•46 min•Season 1Ep. 80
This week’s podcast is about online-merge-offline (OMO) platforms. A business model that is just emerging in China. I talk about Sun Art Retail and Beike / Lianjia as examples. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Here is the BCG article I mentioned. —– Related podcasts and articles are: Lianjia and Beike’s Big Platform Play in Chinese Real Estate (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Update) Alibaba Takes Over Sun Art Retail. Is It Going to Take Off? Or Is It ...
Apr 25, 2021•50 min•Season 1Ep. 79
This week’s podcast is about the current political risks around Alibaba . But also about the very important concept of Worst Case Scenario . You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Here is the Harvard Business Review case about Viva Macau . Here is the book I mentioned, Dead Companies Walking by Scott Fearon . –—– Related podcasts and articles are: My 9 Investment Questions (Asia Tech Strategy – Podcast 75) From the Concept Library , concepts for this ar...
Apr 18, 2021•47 min•Season 1Ep. 78
This week’s podcast is about how to think tactics that generate short-term growth and results. And we see these coming out of China all the time. In particular, I talk about how Pop Mart used blind boxes. How Joy Spreader and Ruhnn Holding used influencer marketing. And how everyone is using community group buying. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Here is the CBS talk with Li Lu . Three questions for when you are thinking about tactics resulting i...
Apr 11, 2021•55 min•Season 1Ep. 77
This week’s podcast is about Baidu and its key strategic questions: Can it thrive as a stand-alone search engine? Against competitors such as Tencent and ByteDance. What is its best growth opportunity? I think cloud. Did it need to go into content? How far? Can it compete in the attention market? Search plus feed. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The mentioned slides are here . –----- Related podcasts and articles are: Baidu’s Search Engine Explai...
Apr 04, 2021•51 min•Season 1Ep. 76
This week’s podcast is about my investment checklist. Which is really just 9 questions. Shown below. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Charlie Munger’s Speech on the Psychology of Human Misjudgment. Located her e. ———– Related podcasts and articles are: N/A From the Concept Library , concepts for this article are: 9 Questions Company Quality (Ques 1 and 2) Worst Case Scenario (Ques 9) From the Company Library , companies for this article are: Warre...
Mar 28, 2021•58 min•Season 1Ep. 75
This week’s podcast is Fiverr and their classic approach to building a marketplace platform (for freelance services). I don't go into it too much but I thought it was a good example of a common playbook for venture capital-backed early stage companies. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Andreesen Horowitz listed 4 types of competitive advantages: Network effects Economies of scale Direct brand power Differentiated technology My competitive pyra...
Mar 21, 2021•54 min•Season 1Ep. 74
This week’s podcast is about Huawei’s big operating system initiative. It’s the first serious challenge to Android’s global dominance. And how to break-in with a new ecosystem is a fascinating question. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Types of platforms: Marketplace Platforms Payment Platforms Innovation and Audience-Builder Platforms Coordination, Collaboration and Standardization Platforms Learning Platforms ---------- Related podcasts and arti...
Mar 14, 2021•57 min•Season 1Ep. 73
This week’s podcast is about JD Central in Thailand. I had an interesting visit and interviewed the CEO. And it raises a bigger point of whether China's ecommerce giants can or will go international? You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The McKinsey & Co article I mentioned is here . Related podcasts and articles are: My Interview with JD Central Thailand CEO Vincent Yang (1 of 2) (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Update) JD Central Plays the Long ...
Mar 08, 2021•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 72
This week’s podcast is about JD Logistics. It's an interesting case of a capability becoming a service business. And maybe a new type of ecosystem. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Related podcasts and articles are: Introduction to Innovation, Elon Musk and Android’s Dominant Design. (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 58) Alibaba, Android and The Emerging Art of Ecosystem Management. (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 57) From the Concept Libra...
Feb 28, 2021•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 71
This week’s podcast is about the Coupang of South Korea. An interesting case of local dominance (geographic) based initially on competitive advantages on the cost side. But potentially also on the demand side. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The advantages for Coupang I mentioned are: Production Cost Advantage: Location or Transportation Cost Advantage Economies of Scale: Purchase Economies Economies of Scale: Distribution Network Density Economi...
Feb 21, 2021•49 min•Season 1Ep. 70
This week’s podcast is about revenue scale and operating leverage in traditional companies vs. software vs. AI. And these things can be really different. Especially software vs. AI. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Here are the three factors I mentioned that interact for operating leverage: Revenue Operating profits Economic value creation (i.e., vs capital) Here are the books I mentioned: Platform Scale: How an emerging business model helps start...
Feb 14, 2021•44 min•Season 1Ep. 69
This week’s podcast is about Roblox and the question of whether this media type will really take off. And I argue this is an interesting evolution of the audience-builder platform. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Here is the article I mentioned: ByteDance vs. Kuaishou: Innovator vs. Fast Follower Strategies for the China Attention Market (Asia Tech Strategy – Daily Update) Related podcasts and articles are: 7 Reasons Digital Platforms Fail (Jeff’...
Feb 07, 2021•58 min•Season 1Ep. 68
This week’s podcast is about network effects. And I argue they are actually three effects at the same time. Plus some stuff about So-Young's marketplace for services. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The 3-4 types of effects with network effects are: Competitive Advantage Barrier to Entry Other Competitive Advantages such as switching costs. Flywheel Here is the article I mentioned: 16 Ways to Measure Network Effects Related podcasts and arti...
Jan 31, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 67
This week’s podcast is about some of the bigger strategic initiatives at WeChat. Specifically mini programs, search, mini games and WeChat Work. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Related podcasts and articles are: WeChat, TikTok and Capturing the Consumer Mind in a Digital Age (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 36) WeChat Work and Why Enterprise Tools Will Be Very Different in Mobile-First China From the Concept Library , concepts for this article a...
Jan 24, 2021•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 66
This week’s podcast is my third on the well-known 7 Powers framework by Hamilton Helmer. I go through the last 4 of his 7 powers. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . His fundamental equation of value is: Value = M0*g*s*m = market scale * power M0 is Market at time zero. g is growth. This is about targeting big and growing market opportunities. S is long-term persistent market share. How much of it you have M is long term persistent margins. (operatio...
Jan 17, 2021•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 65
This week’s podcast is more on the well-known 7 Powers framework by Hamilton Helmer. I go through three of his 7 powers. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . His fundamental equation of value is: Value = M0*g*s*m = market scale * power M0 is Market at time zero. g is growth. This is about targeting big and growing market opportunities. S is long-term persistent market share. How much of it you have M is long term persistent margins. (operational margi...
Jan 10, 2021•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 64
This week’s podcast is on the well-known 5 Forces framework by Michael Porter. I go through some of its limitations and where I think it works best. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Michael Porter's 5 Forces: Bargaining power of suppliers Bargaining power of buyers Threat of Substitutes Barriers to entry / threat of potential entrants Degree of existing competitive rivalry Role of complements? My 4 problems with this are: It doesn’t work for ...
Jan 03, 2021•57 min•Season 1Ep. 63
