This week’s podcast is on the well-known 7 Powers framework by Hamilton Helmer. I go through some of its limitations and where I think it works best. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Hamilton Helmer's fundamental equation for value creation and capture Value = M0*g*s*m = market scale * power M0 is market size at time zero. This is about targeting big and growing market opportunities. S is long-term persistent market share. m is long term pers...
Dec 27, 2020•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 62
This week’s podcast is on Ant Financial vs. Square. And has an introduction to the inside vs. outside view and base rates. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Key question: What will drive Square's growth? Metrics for base rates: Sales growth Gross profitability (gross profits / assets) Operating leverage. Change in operating profits relative to change in sales. Operating profit margin Earnings growth CFROI Related podcasts and articles: How Ant...
Dec 20, 2020•54 min•Season 1Ep. 61
Tesla vs. Nio and why first mover advantage is not as awesome as everyone thinks. At least not in tech. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Advantages of first mover in tech can include: Bigger advantages: Temporary supply-demand imbalance Increasing returns to scale Switching costs Network effects Learning effects Smaller advantages: Brand loyalty Technological leadership Scarce assets in tech Disadvantages of first mover in tech can include: High f...
Dec 13, 2020•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 60
This week’s podcast is on Airbnb and what I think people are getting wrong about its business model and future in Asia. Which has some impact on how you would value it going forward. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The mentioned presentation by NYU Professor Damodaran is here . The mentioned factors for Airbnb were: Market size and / or growth Competitive dynamics and strengths Industry and unit economics Related podcasts and articles: Meituan vs...
Dec 06, 2020•56 min•Season 1Ep. 59
This week’s podcast is on innovation, which often is discussed in fuzzy terms. I present some of the better language used to discuss this topic. And I present some frameworks from McKinsey and Professor Melissa Schilling (NYU). You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The slides mentioned are below. Related podcasts and articles: Forget the “Alibaba Ecosystem”. It’s About Collaboration-Based Industries and Business Models. (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcas...
Nov 29, 2020•54 min•Season 1Ep. 58
This week’s podcast is more about the fuzzy idea of ecosystems, which I call the new collaboration-based business business models . We have clear frameworks for pipelines and platforms. And linked business models and complementary platforms. I summarize some of the thinking by Peter Williamson, Michael Jacobides and BCG's article The Emerging Art of Ecosystem Management . You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Related podcasts and articles: What is...
Nov 23, 2020•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 57
Correction: I had Michael Jacobides' name incorrect throughout this episode. My apologies. Podcasting while sick may not have been my best idea. This week's podcast is about starting to take apart the fuzzy idea of ecosystems. We have clear frameworks for pipelines and platforms. And linkedin business models and complemntary platforms. But the ecosystem term is better thought of as collaboration-based industries and business models. I summarize some of the thinking by Peter Williamson,...
Nov 16, 2020•48 min•Season 1Ep. 56
This podcast is more about the strange but important economics of digital. And on how digital economics can impact well-established competitive advantages like economies of scale. This is a continuation of Podcast 53. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Related podcasts and articles: Review: The Sexy But Dangerous Economics of Digital (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 15) Digital Economics II: Why Pricing Is Getting Both Complicated and Critical. (Je...
Nov 08, 2020•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 55
These are my predictions for the biggest trends in digital China / Asia for 2020-2030. They are all underway already. And most of them are unique to China / Asia - so I don't think we will see them elsewhere. My prediction is: In 2020 – 2030, China / Asia will become the world's largest and most innovative digital ecosystem - with unmatched infrastructure and capabilities. And these the 5 trends I am watching for: China / Asia will become the smart devices leader as innovation in digit...
Nov 01, 2020•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 54
This podcast is more about the strange but important economics of digital. And on pricing, in particular. It is becoming increasingly complicated with bundling, switching costs and platform business models. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Related podcasts and articles: Review: The Sexy But Dangerous Economics of Digital (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 15) This is part of Learning Goals: Level 7 , with a focus on: #29: Digital Economics II Conce...
Oct 26, 2020•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 53
Matthew Brennan has published: Attention Factory: The Story of TikTok and China's ByteDance \ It's a great read, with lots of interesting ideas about how to fight for attention. And how to manage information flows in a world overflowing with content and ideas. The slides mentioned are below and here . Related podcasts and articles: What Is the Secret of TikTok / Douyin’s Success? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 20) This is part of Learning Goals: Level 7 , with a focus on: #32: Adapt...
Oct 19, 2020•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 52
At Alibaba’s Investor Day, CEO Daniel Zhang outlined 11 growth stratgies. Five were under Alibaba Cloud (Aliyun). These are the early days of cloud and, likely, a new paradigm for computing and connectivity. It's chaotic and unclear. But Alibaba is very well positioned to win big. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The mentioned slides are below. Related podcasts and articles: What is Alibaba’s Best Growth Strategy? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Po...
Oct 12, 2020•49 min•Season 1Ep. 51
At Alibaba's Investor Day, CEO Daniel Zhang outlined 11 growth strategies. Five were under Domestic Consumption. The question for this class is which is the most effective of these? Which is most likely to succeed and move the needle? You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . The choices are: “To continue growing our digital economy user base” “To expand consumption categories and consumer wallet share in our digital economy”. “To develop new supply c...
Oct 04, 2020•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 50
This is Part 3 in a three part series about Ant Group / Ant Financial. In this part, I talk about how sustained innovation is the primary strategy for maintaining their competitive advantages. Part 1 is How Ant Financial / Ant Group is Revolutionizing Finance (1 of 3) (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 47) . Part 2 is Adaptation, Innovation and Resilience at Alibaba. A Discussion with BCG’s Martin Reeves. (2 of 3) (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 48) You can listen to this podcast here or at iTu...
Sep 27, 2020•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 49
This is Part 2 in a three part series about Alibaba and Ant Group. The focus was on Alibaba's ability to continually adapt to new markets, consumer behaviors, technologies and opportunities. The idea of adaptability and innovation are increasingly discussed as key competitive abilities. Part 1 is here . To investigate that, I spoke with Martin Reeves , who is Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute. And has long written about adaptability and rate of learning as critical parts of strategy. ...
Sep 20, 2020•53 min•Season 1Ep. 48
This is Part 1 in a three part series about Ant Group. And my basic argument is Ant is well positioned to disrupt and potentially revolutionize financial services. You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Related podcasts and articles: How Big Will Ant Financial / Alipay Become? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 28) 3 Ways AI Is Transforming Fashion: My Interview with JD Vice President of Cloud & AI (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 33) Huawei, Luckin...
Sep 13, 2020•1 hr 9 min•Season 1Ep. 47
This is Part 2 about Pinduoduo and the idea of interactive / engagement-driven ecommerce. In Part 1 , I discussed a recent whitepaper with its authors Elliott Zaagman (co-host the China Tech Investor podcast and a research and communications professional focused on China) and Matthew Brennan (Managing Director of the China Channel .) Their whitepaper on Pinduoduo and interactive commerce is available at China Channel or can be downloaded directly here ( Interactive Ecommerce Whitepaper 2020.08.1...
Sep 07, 2020•52 min•Season 1Ep. 46
This is Part 1 about Pinduoduo and the idea of interactive / engagement-driven ecommerce. Our guests for this podcast were Matthew Brennan and Elliott Zaagman. Elliott Zaagman is co-host the China Tech Investor podcast and a research and communications professional focused on China. Matthew Brennan is Managing Director of the China Channel . We discuss their whitepaper on Pinduoduo and interactive commerce, which is available at China Channel . The 5 choices for explaining Pinduoduo’s success ar...
Aug 30, 2020•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 45
This is part 2 about Xiaomi, Meitu and 7 reasons why platforms / ecosystems succeed or fail. Part 1 is here . You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . 7 reasons why ecosystems (and platforms) fail (by BCG): Insufficient problem to solve Wrong ecosystem configuration Wrong governance choices Inadequate monetization Weak launch strategy Weak defensibility Bad execution Cited in this talk: Why Do Most Business Ecosystems Fail (BCG) Related podcasts and articles: Xiaomi, Mei...
Aug 23, 2020•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 44
In this class, I talk about why platforms fail and do an introduction to ecosystems vs. platforms. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Cited in this talk: Why Do Most Business Ecosystems Fail (BCG) Related podcasts and articles: How Did Alibaba Beat Everyone? Products vs. Digital Platforms. (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 4) Review: Why Digital Platforms Are the Super Predators of Business (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 16) This is part of Learning Goals: Level...
Aug 17, 2020•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 43
In this class, I talk Tencent's recent purchase of Sogou. And go through more digital and information economics. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . This is part of Learning Goals: Level 7 , with a focus on: #29: Digital and Information Economics II Related podcasts and articles: Review: The Sexy But Dangerous Economics of Digital (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 15) Should Vipshop Build a Logistics Network Like JD? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 7) Concept...
Aug 10, 2020•58 min•Season 1Ep. 42
In this class, I talk about networks. And some of their strengths and weaknesses. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . This is part of Learning Goals: Level 7 , with a focus on: #28: Network Effects Concepts for this class: Networks Effects NE: Critical Mass and Chicken-and-Egg NE: Interaction Failure at Scale NE: Leaky Bucket and Multihoming ———- I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation. I am the founder of Te...
Aug 03, 2020•54 min•Season 1Ep. 41
In this class, I talk how to fairly basic platform business models (Shopee, Lazada) compete. As the capabilities and strategies are similar this is mostly about operational performance and management over time. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . This is part of Learning Goals: Level 6 , with a focus on: #23: SMILE Operational Marathon Concepts for this class: Multihoming Management Track Record and Incentives Companies for this class: Lazada Shopee ———- I write, sp...
Jul 26, 2020•45 min•Season 1Ep. 40
In this class, I talk about the role of the state as a key factor in certain industries and countries. This tends to be a fuzzy, uncomfortable aspect when it comes to analysis. But it is fairly common for government to act as both policeman and player. And it can often be easy to predict. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . This is part of Learning Goals: Level 7 , with a focus on: #27: The Role of the State Concepts for this class: Role of the State Mismatched and/...
Jul 19, 2020•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 39
In this class, I talk about the difficulty of moving luxury into ecommerce. And how Chinese consumers will likely determine who finally cracks this problem. Secoo and Farfetch are two companies that are on this frontier right now. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Question: Will Farfetch or Secoo win in luxury ecommerce in China? Three factors to consider: What do consumers care about most? What do large luxury brands care about most? What do small luxury brands a...
Jul 13, 2020•57 min•Season 1Ep. 38
In this class, we go through 6 digital superpowers, which is a simple high-level checklist for when digital tools can significantly change the competitive dynamics of a business. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Which of the 6 Digital Superpowers does the company have? If any. Dramatically transform the user experience Enable a platform business model Network effects Other competitive advantage Virality Scalable Related podcasts and articles: How Did Alibaba Beat...
Jul 05, 2020•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 37
In this class, I talk about the share of the consumer mind as a revenue competitive advantage. And how companies like WeChat and TikTok are changing this with digital tools. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Related podcasts and articles: Why Didi Needs Driver Switching Costs. Uber Too. (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 23) This is part of Learning Goals: Level 4-5 , with a focus on: #24: Share of the Consumer Mind in a Digital Age Concepts for this class: Competi...
Jun 28, 2020•55 min•Season 1Ep. 36
In this class, I go into the how digital native education companies like LAIX are challenging traditional companies like New Oriental. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Which of the 6 Digital Superpowers does LAIX have? If any. Dramatically transform the user experience Enable a platform business model Network effects Other competitive advantage Virality Scalable Related podcasts and articles: Review: The Sexy But Dangerous Economics of Digital (Jeff’s Asia Tech C...
Jun 22, 2020•59 min•Season 1Ep. 35
In this class, I go into the increasing dimensions of operational marathons. I call these the SMILE marathon. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . SMILE Marathons. Competing every day on which dimensions? Scale, Scope, Efficiency and Effectiveness Machine Learning / AI Factories and Zero-Human Operations Innovation Rate of Learning Ecosystem Orchestration and Management Related podcasts and articles: What Should Starbucks China Have Done About Luckin Coffee? (Jeff’s ...
Jun 14, 2020•52 min•Season 1Ep. 34
In this class, I talk about ways AI and cheap prediction are being used in fashion and apparel. From my interview with Dr. Tao Mei, Vice President of Cloud & AI at JD.com. You can listen here or at iTunes , Google Podcasts and Himalaya . Related podcasts and articles: How Big Will Ant Financial / Alipay Become? (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 28) Products with Personalities? My Interview with JD About Conversational AI (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 31) This is part of Learning Goals: L...
Jun 08, 2020•50 min•Season 1Ep. 33
