The 'Widowmaker' Crypto Trade That Helped Blow Up an Industry - podcast episode cover

The 'Widowmaker' Crypto Trade That Helped Blow Up an Industry

Jan 20, 202337 min
--:--
--:--
Listen in podcast apps:

Episode description

Over the last year, numerous things have gone wrong for the crypto industry. (Too many to list.) But one thing we've learned is that there's an incredibly high degree of interconnectedness between various firms, all borrowing and lending from each other in a way that created a tremendous amount of fragility. A key entity in all this is GBTC, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which was one of the first regulated entities that allowed ordinary investors to get Bitcoin price exposure. Over time, this trust turned into a behemoth, with numerous players making massive leveraged bets on it. On this episode, we speak with Ram Ahulwalia, the CEO of Lumida Wealth, who explains how the fund works, how the trade worked for investors, and why it's ended in tears for so many players.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy UM, A lot has gone wrong for crypto in the last year or so. I think let's start there. I think that is safe to say that. There are many different scandals, blow up, disasters, etcetera. So the background to that intro was right before Joe said it, he was going, how

am I going to start this one? And he just went with bad things have been happening, right, Like, we could go for a lot, we could just list him. We don't need to do that, Okay. So one of the bad things that has been happening in the crypto industry has to do with several high profile entities, and I'm still trying to wrap my head around the relationships

between all of them. But we need to talk about what's going on with Grayscale, Genesis and Jeff and I. Right, so, for a long time, you know, there's no bitcoin e t F in the United States for a long time, Like buying bitcoin might have been a little tricky. Maybe people didn't want to trust like some of these online exchanges, some of them for good reasons. If you were some sort of regulated entity like a fund or something, or an advisor, you might not be able to get your

client money into bitcoin itself. But for a long time, so GBTC, which is this entity owned by Gray Scale, was like one of the regulated vehicles that one could get exposure to bitcoin, right but not an exchange traded fund. Importantly, it was well the Gray Scale Bitcoin Trust I think

it's called. And because of its existence, we saw this trade that it really seems like a lot of people in the crypto world we're doing where they would basically borrow bitcoin, deposit those with Gray Scale in exchange for GBTC shares, and then eventually they would sort of offload

those shares to retail investors. But that only works as long as there's interest in bitcoin and the price is kind of going up, and now that everything seems to be going backwards or exploding in various ways, it's become problematic. And now we have this huge discrepancy between the value of Gray Scales bitcoin and where the shares are actually trading. So this is really interesting. For a while, the Gray Scale Bitcoin Trust GBTC and it's traded quotes all day.

It was a large premium to the underlying bitcoin that it held, and now there is a big discount. And the key thing is is that all of these entities that were in some way trying to areb the spread or trading bitcoin veras GBTC, etcetera, they've now lost a lot of money. And I think, you know, I mentioned at the very beginning there have been a lot of disasters on crypto, but I think GBTC is at the center of many of them. Yes, everyone seems upset about this.

You know, I've kind of been following it a little bit, but not that much, and so I am very interested to pick apart the relationships between these various entities, like why is Gemini that involved with Genesis and how does it involve Gray Scale as well? You know, superficially this is a going to be a crypto episode, but really it's like a fund structure episode more than anything else. It could be anything, but it happens to be a

trust that owns a lot of bitcoin. Anyway, we need an expert here who's going to explain what was the g BTC trade that so many different entities get into, why it gets so much trouble all these new disputes. I'm very excited we're gonna be speaking to Rama Lawalia. Here's the founder of Lumeda, which is a private wealth advisor. You knows a lot about this stuff. So rong, thank you so much for coming out odd lots, thank you for having me. What is GBTC. So, g BTC is

the security issued by gray Scale. It is a security that trades on the market, and right now it has a discount to the net asset value and that net SA values based on the value that bitcoin held by the trust. GBTC is issued by gray Scale, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Digital Currency Group. And what's the relationship between gray Scale and Genesis and Gemini. Let's just do the whole like, let's name all the players

at the beginning, we'll introduce the cast of character. So, first off, you've got Digital Currency Group, founded by Barry Silber a was and is a storied institution, really one of the blue chip firms that also seed and invested in quite a few companies in the category. So DCG created a business called gray Scale, and gray Scale was the first to issue a publicly exchange traded a security

that represented access to bitcoin was wildly successful. Also, DCG created the first prime brokerage for the category, and that prime brokerage is called Genesis. So what does Genesis do? It performs custody, enables trading, and also provides financing for digital assets, including GBTC. What is GBTC. So it's not an e t F. It's an entity that owns a bunch of bitcoin and there are shares that want what is it? What is it? That's correct, it's not an e t F. You can analogize it to a closed

end fund, although that's not what it is either. But essentially it's a security that trades in the market. It's issued by a trust and the value of that security, in principle should be based on the value of the collateral backing the trust, which is about ten billion dollars

worth the bitcoin. It's not an e t F because there's no dynamic, instantaneous what's called the creation redemption mechanism, whereby market makers perform open operations to ensure that any of you is close to the value of the GBTC. So maybe talk to us a little bit more about the differences between e t F s and a TRY structure, Like what are the key differences and what is it that seems to be problematic with a bitcoin based e t F but is allowed to happen with a bitcoin

based trust. Sure, So in an e t F, you have market makers that are ensuring that the value, the net asset value of the fund matches the tradeable value of the security, and arbitrage enforces that the authorized participants, so typically banks who are incentivized if they spot a discrepancy between the value of the underlying basket of whatever in this case bitcoin and the shares, they would buy a basket or sell a basket and take it to

the e t F issuer. Exactly right. Okay, Now the SEC was not authorizing e t f s backed by bitcoin. So what Gray Scale did was they issued GBTC in a trust format. So you can think about a closed end fund, which are which are out there, and closed end funds generally traded a discount of the net asset value, So you have all these antiity everyone. There's been a million filings for e t f s and they tend to go in waves, it seems like, and then every

six months or something you get a bunch of denials. Meanwhile, GBTC has existed since it looks like early this thing has just been like a huge money maker because as the one sort of like traded vehicle that's bitcoin ish that offers bitcoin exposure almost a monopoly. Like how much of a money maker was this business. Yes, GBTC was the ultimate carry trade and it generated hundreds of millions of dollars over billions of dollars for the issuers and

parties have participated in the trade. So at the time when GBTC launched, it's premium above the value of the underlying bitcoin hell in the trust. The premium fluctuated between thirty for several years. So if you engage in this carry trade like Tracy outline, meaning you buy bitcoin, you convey and deliver it to Gray scale in six months, but you're wearing the price risk at the time of delivery.

So if that premium has held firm, then you capture the value of the premium relative to the spot price of bitcoin. That discount started to appear. Really, the premium went to a discount with coin based going public around that time. But so just to go back for a second, you say, there's there's no like unlike an e T F. There's no like automatic redemption back and forth. But traders were able to create by bitcoin and then create GBTC,

so it was like is it it was allowed? There was one direction you could take it, but not the other way, like this is why I don't get So you could create GBTC shares but they can't be destroyed. Correct, So GBTC. Gray Scale has this kind of Hotel California dynamic. The way it works is you've got to go through a deliberate set of procedures to acquire bitcoin, create a legal entity, notify gray Scale, and go through a set of mechanic X two, then capture the premium on the

other side and hope it's there. On the redemption side. There is a mechanism to redeemount of trusts. It's called REGAM. It's one of the statutes in securities laws, and trusts

have offered liquidity to investors. However, gray Scale received a letter from the SEC saying that they cannot engage in E t F like practices, and gray Scale interpreter that and said, oh, the SEC is telling us we cannot utilize REGAM to create liquidity, and then they modified their trust to expressly prohibit themselves from invoking REGAM, although other parties are saying in don't know, you can actually use REGAM.

They're reading too much into the sec action and accusing Gray Scale of self dealing trying to keep this cash cow right. So this is part of the controversy that we're seeing unfold now. But setting the controversy aside for one second, and who's mad at who? What was the exit plan here from a scale itself, Like what exactly did they expect to be the outlet for redemptions? If there was a bunch of selling pressure, the paths liquidity would simply be selling the g PTC, so the secondary

market would provide the liquidity. There's no mechanism to enforce the discount to close because reagam is not utilized. That's it. So you're betting that this will trade at some correlation

to the underlying collateral. You mentioned the perception out there of self dealing or reading too much into the SEC and I'm not gonna ask you to render a legal judgment, but can you clarify when these counterparties are concerned that grace L is too conservative about it, and the claim is that it's just that this is a huge fee collection entity for them, right, Like, what are like the I don't know does it have fees in the same

way a typical fund is? Like how much does gray scale get every year from the amount of big Climate. Let me walk you through that. So gray Scale files quarterly public ten cues and you can see the revenues that they generate. And today gray Scale is generating probably around three million in run rate revenue based on the prevailing price of bitcoin. If you assume a sixty five profit margin seems reasonable. They could be clocking it around ND seventy million, give or chain, give or take in

terms of net income. I should also point out that the revenue that gray Scale generates is proportional one for one with the price of bitcoin. So DCG raised through private financing in November at a ten billion dollar valuation. They top take the market that was exact month that

bitcoin hit their peak value as well. And the way gray Scale generates revenue is they have a two percent management fee, So it's two percent times of value the underlying bitcoin collateral, not times the traded value of the g BTC right, So I mean they were basically printing money when bitcoin was going up, which is kind of funny because all the bitcoin purists complain about the FED printing money, but they're still printy money. Right, Yes, they

are making money. Absolutely, it is the cash cow. However, than other parts of the d c G business are feeling stressed. Right, I think this is the cue maybe to talk about Genesis and the relationship with gray Scale, because my understanding was that a lot of these market participants who were borrowing bitcoin were often doing it through Genesis. Absolutely right. So Genesis was the world's leading crypto prime brokerage.

And what does a prime broker do. They enable lending, custody and trading in an institutional man So Genesis enabled hedge funds like three RS Capital to borrow bitcoin and GBTC and other tokens in size, and Genesis also enabled other non banks to participate in the gray scale trade was blocked. So Block five one of the entities that

sort of, I guess, blew up over last year. How much was the gray scale trade the business of Block five, gray Scale made over a hundred million dollars in revenue, and perhaps a lot more than that through the GBTC trade.

What's really interesting about block fives that on the surface it looks like a crypto neo bank, a slick app Behind that surface, it's actually capital markets in trading business with skillful individuals that were participating in this GBTC trade using their client funds, and that revenue generating machine of g BTC enable the growth of the crypto ci fi

sector celsie. It was a major driver of revenue. And when that premium flip to negative, it's similar to the idea of like the yield curve going inverted, a key leg or prop supporting these business models was kicked away and these businesses had to pivot to find other sources

to generate revenue, including lending. I think this is really important here because in the beginning, when you talked about the creation of GBTC shares, there was a full legal process, and this I guess I hadn't appreciated that there was a whole process. You had to set up, set up

a relationship, set up a corporate entity, etcetera. So one way to think about these sort of like crypto ci fi entities, whether it's block Fire or Celsius, etcetera, was they did that, they set up that entity and then as long as the way was that premium doesn't really matter the price of bitcoin as long as the some premium that existed between GBTC and BTC, they could use that legal structure that they had made to take in money by bitcoin and attempt I don't know, arb isn't

the right word, but exploit, That's that's exactly right. They're wearing the risk of whether that premium will maintain at the time of delivery. So how does Gemini play into all of this? Because you know, we mentioned people being upset about various things here, and the Winklevos twins certainly seem to be upset, right. So the Geminis, of course is one of the United States the largest crypto exchanges, competing with the coin base. People in crypto want yield.

That's what the lesson is from Celsius is the lesson from block fights listening from Voyager. People want to earn high yield in a then zer rate interest environment. And Gemini spotted the opportunity and they created a program called Gemini Earn and in that program, the creditors face off with jen So gem and I offered a the ability for retail investors, a credit investors and institutions to make direct loans to Genesis gem and I was acting as

an agent. They weren't taking credit risk themselves. They didn't put Genesis loans on their balance sheet. They were really like an offerer of this program. Marketing agent was coin you know, there was at one point coin Base had this thing. They were going to do an earned thing, and then they're like, I got a letter from the SEC. They're not gonna let us do it. Was there going to be roughly the same style business similar? Yes, So the SEC it's been reported threatened to wells notice and

coin Base stopped. Also recalled. The SEC did find Block five for similar program Hunter million dollars. Again, what was Block five doing. Block Fire was paying out interest and there was no retied securities offering. If you want to pay out interest or you want to have poth cake deposit, you have to be a bank. Only banks have exemptions

from securities laws. So on this note, another bad thing that has happened in the crypto space recently is that Gemini as well as Genesis happened sued by the SEC over this earned program that you just described, basically for breaking securities rules. And one of the criticisms that we've seen online, you know from I guess investors who are probably burned by some crypto things. Is, well, why didn't

the SEC say something sooner? You know, they knew that these companies were doing this program, they'd may be issued warnings to Block five things like that. What's the rationale for that? Why wouldn't they have moved sooner? Sure, so, first, Tracy is going to put me in the uncomfortable position of defending the SEC. Here. I only asked the tough

questions Twitter. Let me do my my best here. So the SEC has indicated through public statements and enforcement actions, including on Block five, that they perceive exchanges offering unregied securities to the public. So they're trying to say, hey, guys and gals, clean up otherwise is we're going to have enforcement actions. That's one second. Is the way to think about the regulators. A metaphor to use here is

like the fireman. Okay, so there's a fire in the house, you call the regulators, you file a complaint, you say, hey, protect me. The fireman show up. House already burned down, but there's probably a safe with some assets in the basement. And then then what does the firemen do. They'll say, did you adhere to your building code standards? For example, that would be did you have sufficient disclosure? Did you say may lose value in bold old cats and that's

not on the loan agreement for instance. The sec will say, Okay, if you complied with the building code standards, then you probably aren't gonna get a penalty because bad things happen. Also, if you had a legal opinion, meaning you had an inspector show up and said you're you're doing things by the code, you're gonna have less liability. But that's what happens to you you and the reason why that's the cases the SEC regulations. American securities laws are rounded on a

disclosure framework. It's not a licensing regime like banks. If you're at JP Morgan, there are dozens of regulators that are on site that can access books and records. They have to prove new products, they're sufficient, they're stringent controls. Whereas in the American capital markets, what drives entrepreneurship is you don't need a chief compliance officer or a lawyer on staff to raise capital or be in business. That is the trade off of the American approach to capital formation,

there's just an expectation of disclosure. There's an expectation of compliance with the law. So the SEC will show up after usually a mistakes happened, and they'll start to take names and take actions and try to send an example for others in the industry. And that's why they put these public releases out saying we took action, here's a fine, and everybody else better claim. Because the SEC can't truly

please the category, They've got to find examples. Remind me, what was the peak of the premium the g BTC was to the bigco and I think again, then it got recently down to like a fifty discount or pretty close to that. Correct, it's bounced back a little bit. We've had this rally. Are there steps that d c G could take right now to close that nav but that would come at the expense of feed generation. Yes,

Gray Scale could utilize the Ragam redemption. First they have to modify the provisions of the trust to enable them to do that, and then they could redeem out bitcoin and that would close the gap dramatically. Here's a trade off. Though d c G has ten million, we're on ten percent of the GBTC issued excuse me, sixty one million g BTC on their balance sheet as of September reporting. Now they might have sold some since that time that

could have caused the discount to widen. So it would help d CGS holdings of g BTC because they would also double in value if that closes, but they will lose the fee generating potential from owning the bitcoin. And the right move if your DCG in a self interested capacity is not to permit that you're better off taking the unrealized loss on the GBTC held and maintain the

fee generation. What does it mean for gray Scale and the Bitcoin trust that Genesis has experienced so many problems because I think, didn't they suspend withdrawals at some point?

That's right, Genesis a few weeks after the FTX collapse, after reassurances to investors, including repping to the solvency of their business, suspended withdrawals and if you take a step back, this is another common theme in the category, is this pattern of non banks acting like banks, and of course Tracy, we saw this in the fintech lending category as well. But what do I mean by that? Yes, for for our listeners, ROM and I go way back to fintech and peer to peer lending, which is when we first

started talking. Maybe there's a lot of overlap actually with crypto. Maybe one day we'll have ROM back for my dream episode or the what is fintech? That? Because I still don't know what fintech means, But that's another that's it's funny. So what is a non bank doing here? Non bank is taking short term liquid deposits. That's what we call a demand deposit. You can go to your bank and say, hey, I want my funds back. When you go to your JP Morgan checking account and says you've got ten thousand

dollars there, those dollars aren't actually there. They're being lent out on the other side. And banks can pull that off because they have two things f d i C insurance to guard against a bank run and a lender of last resort. So but it's a great business to borrow short and lend long. That's what banks do, and that's what these non banks, including Block fives, Celsius, Voyager and now Genesis have done. They're borrowing short term liquid

deposits that are callable. They can be redeemed whenever client wants what they're lending against long term, long duration asked us that are ill liquid, not marketable securities. So when you get a run on the bank, then you can be caught offsides. All right, So we mentioned block five Celsius, who else, like, how many anti three A C were they doing the g BTC trade in some version? Yes, three a C was a maybe the biggest better on

this g BTC carry trade. Voyager were they doing It's not clear whether Voyager or Celsius was black Fire was just on three A C specifically because they were not like one of these c FI fintech things. So what was how did how were they going about the g BTC trade? So they were borrowing leverage from Genesis and so, and of course d CG was was doing the same trade. We can circle back to that as well, and that's

what's created issues of the DCG balance. But essentially, with three years Capital as a hedge fund, they were buying GBTC on leverage when the discount was around, betting that that discount would close. I have an existential question based on all of this, which is you talked about how you know the people in this space really cared about yield at a time when interest rates were very low.

And this is a theme that's come up on the show quite a lot, which is in crypto, there are lots of very creative and at times ingenious ways to manufacture yield, but it all seems to come from, you know, some form of self dealing within the crypto space. Is crypto going to be able to maintain those yields going forward? You know, in a world where there is now a lot of doubt and cynicism about the space and still a big question mark over whether or not there is

an actual use case for the underlying technology. Great questions. So first off, in crypto, if you don't know where the yield is coming from, you are the yield. The yields and crypto have dropped dramatically because the primary driver of yield generation was the demand for leverage. So if you are on tokens and protocols like A and compound during the heyday, the yields generations were relatively attractive as

compared to zero percent interest rates in your bank. What you're seeing now though, is the crypto ecosystem and entrepreneurs are adapting. For example, you're starting to see tokenize the real world assets on chain, which I'm very excited about. You're seeing t bills on chain, So crypto natives that want to have a a non constilled, a non banking bankless experience can access yields on chain. I'm not endorsing that, by the way. Still early days, i've seen some of

these tokens offer greater yield than t bills. I don't know how they do that, but that's trouble that it sounds like trouble. I have another question about the premium or the lack of premium for GBTC relative to BTC. So, as we mentioned, you know, GBTC launched in tw it was very difficult in those days to get bitcoin price exposure. It's become a lot easier going forward. Like let's say

there's another like sustained bitcoin bowl market. Like I don't know like if GBTC would ever go back into premium again, but there's a it is much easier to buy bitcoin or get bitcoin exposure I would think in than it was in or even ten or maybe even one. How much does that influence potential deviation from pricing Just the fact that like it's kind of getting less special We will never, in my opinion, see a premium on GBTC again.

It was a short lived premium, and what drove the premium was the fact that GBTC enabled you to access bitcoin through the convenience of your brokerage account. And you know, as we know, the coupital markets are tens and tens of trillions of dollars you put in a ticker, you hit by, and not many retail investors read the prospectives

understand all their dynamics behind it. You know, when you were describing the trust, you were talking about basically liquidity and maturity transformation by non banks, which to me makes something like the GBTC the sort of ultimate shadow bank. And I guess my question is should we have just had an e t F instead, Like it seems like we ended up with maybe a closed end structure. Well, I mean I could argue it both ways. I guess maybe a closed down structure is better for an liquid

asset like bitcoin. But tell me your thoughts. So Genesis was the ultimate shadow bank gray Scale. The issues around gray Scille aren't so much that they took bitcoin and listed in a token format on the public markets. It's the allegation of the perception that they're not offering liquidity to their investors through rag M to enable to access that.

You know, the SEC chair Gensler denied the application for Gray Skill to convert to an e t F in November of one, again around the peak of the bitcoin market and just before the FED started to raise rates. This is a really a speculative question. Certainly, if there was an e t F offered, investors would utilize e t F. It's got lower fees. It's also convenient, there's not going to be a discount to n a V. But GBTC would still be out there because it still

has that Hotel California dynamic. That issue of bitcoin being trapped in this trust would still remain. But so but g b they did apply to turn to turn GBTC into an e t F, and so it was the basic bet then that like, okay, we'll fees are going to collapse presumably in an e t F structure, but the NAV would be so much bigger in an ETF structure. That is a worthwhile trade off, right, it's a rate volume trade off. There are competitors to g BTC today. G BTC was the first and only game in town

for several years, and their competitors and other offerings. For example, Valkyrie has published a letters saying we're happy to be the program sponsor. Hey, gray Scale, let us manage that for you, which is really a gray Scale committing corporate suicide have to terminate themselves. So you're right, you would see fee compression and you probably would see volumes grow. Well, I just have we're recording this one, so who knows what's going to happen between now people here. It which

a couple of days. But what are you watching for here? And what should we be watching this development? Because they're all kinds of moving part looking for one, is there an involuntary petition for chapter eleven that creditors two Genesis get together and say, hey, we're tired of the fact that there's no resolution and forcing Genesis into bankruptcy if that happens, and the other things you need to look for.

For example, D c G attempted to kind of quasi bailout Genesis, not through cash, but by creating this one point one billion dollar a loon. They swapped out this bad loan three hours capital for this good loan back by d CG. I would love to see the terms

of that promissory note. And if that note there's getting a little technically, But if that note is callable in the event that Genesis goes through chapter eleven, which Barry claims it's not callable, but there may be other provisions that would force d CG to pay it, then that note is really like a noose around the neck of DCG. A Genesis chapter eleven can drag DCG over. So we have to assess that promisoring note in what I think

is an increasingly inevitable chapter eleven for Genesis. Where are Genesis claims trading at the moment, because they are out there right there their trading It's been reported on Twitter. Take what you Want is in the low twenty cents, which by the way, is lower than the claims for Voyager Block Fine Celsius, which is an indication that markets

do not believe Genesis is solvent. Now. Barry, through his public letters, has said and reinsisted multiple times, including over the last eight weeks, that the issues at Genesis are around liquidity in duration mismatch, not solvency, and he has to keep saying that because the loan agreements state there's

a representation from Genesis attesting to their solvency. So if they took in customer funds after three hours capital, which they did, or after the ft X blew up, which they did, and in fact they were insolvent, they would have violated the law. And that brings you why you have this SEC and d o J investigation. Honestly, I feel like in crypto liquidity is almost anonymous with salt.

Absolutely not in traditional banking for totally, and partly is because there's so like, so so internal and so convex. I would say, Uh, you've you've hinted that there's all what's the what's shakespeare play? You've hinted that there's like a Shakespearean element to all this. What should we how should we think about this? So this is a big Shakespearean drama with intra company, intra family relationships, related parties. Yeah, that's crypt vary ancestors exactly. So here's my take. Julius

Caesar is Verry Silber. He had the DCG Empire, Julius Caesar across the Rubicon. That's when Genesis suspended withdrawals and of course gray skills run by his Lieutenant Michael Shanna Segan. That's Mark Anthony, his trusted lieutenant. Mark and Julius Caesar have a shared love interest. Of course, that's Cleopatra. We'll call that Genesis. We gotta anthropomorphize so you can keep going. But yeah, there's a it is a it is a grand drama Romalia. Thank you so much for coming on,

odd Lodds. I actually kind of get it. You know, it's a really complicated, but you you explained this really well, and it really is extraordinary the degree to which this one vehicle seems to have created so many headaches. So appreciate you explaining it to us on today show. Thank you, thanks so much. From that was great, and you even defended the SEC a little bit. Don't worry, we want,

we want, we'll tweet out that, Tracy. That really was helpful to me because I understand, you know, there's so like, first of all, just back over, there's so many things in crypto that start with G. So it's why it's confusing. It's like the three of the Crypto APOCALYPSI, Gemini Galaxy. The galaxy wasn't part of this story. Seminar GC is like d C G I honestly think this is they gotta come up with some new names or they all have to merge, because I really think this is part

of why it's so confusing. Well, I think everything should move away from like three or four letter acronyms for a start, That would help. But I do think you're right. That was totally a market structure episode, not necessarily a crypto episode. But it does throw up the usual questions I think for crypto, which is, what does the space actually look like when all these sort of money making

ecosystems start to fall apart. I hidn't appreciated the degree to which, and I don't want to say their entire existence, but they had a big sort of like value prop to the extent that that is a useful term for some of these sort of c FI neo banks. Was essentially just having established that relationship in order to pledge bitcoin for GBTC and how like, okay, you have that and as long as there's some sort of premium because there's a scarcity because there it's difficult to get bitcoin

the exposure that's just a money printer. But then once that goes away, then like all of these business models, just like don't really work any well. Absolutely, And Rom's point about sort of resemblance to the yield curve, yeah, is fascinating. And when you think about crypto, like the

way it's recreated certain aspects of the financial system. I know it's become a bit of a cliche at this point to mention this, but the idea of you know, tether breaking the book is sort of like a money market fund, and then this is sort of like the

yield curve. Those examples come up a lot, well, you know, and we didn't actually talk about this at all, but there was apt even more specific like sort of curve, which was the The other regulated way that entities could get bitcoin exposure was those SMI bitcoin futures, which for a long time traded with a huge premium to spot and so there was like for a while a theoretically riskless trade that you actually could are where it's like you pledge bitcoin or you know whatever, go go along

one of them, go short the other one, et cetera. There guides to how to do it. But all of these, all of these trades were predicated on a sort of scarcity of access to bitcoin. It's now going away absolutely all right, Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe wi Isn't All. You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow our guest

rom Alawalia. He's at ram Alla Walia. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Arman and Dash Bennett at Dashbot. And check out all of our podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts. And for more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots. We post transcripts, we blog, We even have bloo weekly newsletter. Go there and subscribe to Thanks for listening to

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file