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Odd Lots

Bloombergbloomberg.com

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Episodes

How Do We Define a Currency?

What is a currency? This turns out to be one of those questions we just kind of skip over because we don't have clear answers to it (and because economists often like to skip over these foundational things). This special episode of the Odd Lots podcast was recorded as part of Princeton University's “How to Write the Biography of a Currency” event , hosted by the Princeton Economic History Workshop and the Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy & Finance. In this discussion, we talk about ...

May 31, 202558 min

Krishna Memani on Wall Street's Very Expensive "Free Lunch"

We're told over and over again that the one "free lunch" in investing is diversification, and that you can improve your returns over time simply by investing in a wider range of assets. This is textbook modern finance. And yet over the past several years this hasn't been the case. An investor would have done great (with the occasional hiccups) just by investing in US stocks. What's more, even within US stocks, investors should have concentrated on big tech stocks. Going long US tech has been ide...

May 30, 202539 min

Michael Cembalest on Why AI Is the Stock Market Bet of the Century

Michael Cembalest has been an investment analyst for almost 40 years and his research notes have drawn a cult following on Wall Street. He's known for going super deep into a wide range of topics, like energy and healthcare. And lately he's been writing a lot about AI, with a particular interest in figuring out whether all the investment in data centers and compute will translate into actual profits. On this episode, we talk to the chair of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Manag...

May 29, 202559 min

Why Asset Allocators Love Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds

Why are big investors flocking to multi-strategy hedge funds like Millennium and Citadel? This episode explores the unique business models, fee structures (comparing traditional 2/20 with 'pod shops'), and the critical role of compensation in driving everything from talent attraction to risk management and portfolio construction. Advisor Ronan Cosgrave explains how these funds differ and what makes them appealing to large asset allocators.

May 26, 202550 min

Zohran Mamdani, the Socialist Who Could Be NYC's New Mayor

We're just a month away from the hotly-contested Democratic primary for New York City Mayor. And one of the candidates -- Queens assemblyman Zohran Mamdani -- is running on a somewhat unusual platform. Endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, he's proposing rent freezes, universal childcare, higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, free buses, and city-run grocery stores. In this conversation, we talk to the would-be mayor about his socialist vision for New York, including how he p...

May 23, 202547 min

Why Interest Rates Are Shooting Up All Around the World

This week the big story in markets is the selloff in bonds. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries jumped 20 basis points from last Friday’s low, while the 30-year rate is back above 5%. Meanwhile, 30-year Japanese government bonds clocked their highest yield since records began in 1999. And rates on UK gilts, German bunds, and Australian bonds are also rising. To make matters even more unusual, US Treasury yields are going up while the dollar is weakening (something that doesn’t usually happ...

May 22, 202543 min

Scott Bok on How Bankers Spread the Gospel of Capitalism

When we think about the prospect of deglobalization (whatever that means) we often think about it in terms of the goods economy. Supply chains get rerouted. Manufacturing becomes more localized, and possibly less efficient. But changes to the global world order also have implications for Wall Street, and the world of dealmaking. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Scott Bok, the longtime former chairman and CEO of the investment bank Greenhill & Co., which is now part of Mizuho. Sc...

May 19, 202553 min

Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic on Monetary Policy During Extreme Uncertainty

This is obviously an extraordinarily difficult time to make economic forecasts. Nobody really knows how tariffs will affect the US economy. And beyond that, nobody knows what the ultimate state of tariffs will be, or if they'll ever settle into a predictable rate. So how do you conduct monetary policy in this environment? On this episode, recorded at the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta, we spoke with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. He walked us through how he's thinking about the dual mand...

May 16, 202548 min

The Oil Industry's Double Whammy of Higher Costs and Lower Prices

The new administration has a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and a much more liberal attitude towards the oil and gas industry than the last one. But that hasn't translated into great profits for the oil industry itself. Crude prices have sunk and tariffs have raised the cost of components for companies trying to get energy out of the ground. So, what's the future for the industry? And who is actually making money right now? In this episode, we talk to longtime energy industry veteran Peter Tertzaki...

May 15, 202543 min

Perry Mehrling on Trump's Echoes of the Nixon Shock

There's been a lot of talk recently about parallels between Donald Trump's economic policies and the Nixon Shock of the early 1970s. That was when the former president took the dollar off the gold standard, introduced hefty tariffs, and pressured the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. The moves sparked stagflation in the US and shook up the global monetary order. Now, given Trump's determination to rebalance the US relationship with global trading partners and his criticism of the Fed, cou...

May 14, 202529 min

Philip Diehl on the Booming Business of Gold Coins

Gold prices have been booming and are near record highs. And seeing the line go up — especially during a period of so much uncertainty — makes people want to buy more. That includes acquiring actual gold coins. But where do gold coins come from? Why do people want coins, as opposed to just bullion? And who is buying them? On this episode, we speak with Philip Diehl, the president of gold vendor US Money Reserve. Earlier in his career, he was the 35th director of the US Mint, where he was instrum...

May 12, 202542 min

Why the World Keeps Getting Shocked by China's Technological Progress

This episode of Odd Lots explores China's rapid technological advancements, examining cultural differences, government influence, and policy implementation. Kaiser Kuo discusses the unique aspects of China's tech development, the role of KPIs in directing national priorities, and the impact of export controls. The conversation also covers the motivations of Chinese technologists and the challenges in exporting Chinese pop culture.

May 10, 202539 min

Sarah LaFleur On the Existential Threat From the Tariffs

America's textile industry has famously declined over the years, with a bunch of production moving to lower-cost places like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Now, with the Trump administration imposing heavy tariffs on exports from these countries, the US clothing industry is facing another big shock. In this episode we speak with Sarah LaFleur, founder and CEO of M.M.LaFleur, which makes high-quality work clothing for women (Tracy is a big fan). She walks us through what the past month has actua...

May 09, 202540 min

How China Might Actually Handle a US Trade War

By now, everyone recognizes that the US and China are in the middle of a trade war, with the Trump administration having imposed tariffs of as much as 125% on Chinese goods. For an export-focused economy like China's, that's a big deal. At the same time, China is pretty much the only major country that's chosen to retaliate against the US with its own set of fresh trade restrictions. So why did it decide to reciprocate? And what's its negotiating position as the US and China head into initial ta...

May 08, 202552 min

The Tariff Buzzsaw Is Coming For Hardcore Gamers

Every industry is going to be affected by the trade war in different ways. In many cases, we don't know how it's going to play out. Other industries are seeing an immediate impact. Companies that specialize in computer gaming are highly reliant on inputs from China and other East Asian countries. These companies assemble customized gaming rigs and other peripherals (cameras, chairs, controllers, speakers etc.). On this episode, we're joined by Stephen Burke, the founder of Gamers Nexus, a public...

May 07, 202547 min

Brad Setser on the Big Surge in the Taiwanese Dollar

There are several markets that have really settled down since the tumult of early April. But strange, unusual things are still popping up, particularly in the currency space. Over the last few days, we've seen a huge surge in the Taiwan dollar. This is important, in part, because Taiwanese life insurance companies are major buyers of US dollar assets, such as corporate bonds. Suddenly, they're looking at a major hit to the value of these holdings, with losses that are only partially hedged. So w...

May 06, 202529 min

Henry Blodget on AI, Dot-Coms, and What's Changed In 25 Years

What does history say about how big the AI boom can get, and who will ultimately win out? When does a boom turn into a bubble that turns into a bust? On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Henry Blodget, the founder of Business Insider (and Joe's old boss there). In the late '90s, Henry was one of the most well-known Wall Street analysts covering internet stocks, before the crash and recriminations, which ended up in his lifetime ban from the industry. His new project is a publication calle...

May 05, 202555 min

Chris Hughes on How to Craft a Thriving Market

Over the last several years, both parties in the US have been drifting away from laissez-faire thinking about the economy, and more towards the view that the state has an active role in shaping markets. You have Republicans talking about stricter anti-trust and sovereign wealth funds, and of course Democrats embracing things like industrial policy efforts in key strategic sectors. But how do you design markets well? When does it fail? And what is the history of this type of thing in the US. In t...

May 03, 202554 min

What The 'Lentil King of Saskatchewan' Knows About World Trade

We don't know what the end state for the tariffs are going to be, but inevitably there will be some shifts in the way that goods and dollars flow around the world economy. Of course, some parts of the economy are always subject to changing rules around subsidies and tariffs, and that's particularly true in agriculture. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Murad Al-Katib, the President and CEO of AGT Foods and Ingredients, who is sometimes known as The Lentil King of Saskatchewan. He is c...

May 02, 202552 min

Blackstone's King of Hedge Funds on Alt Investing Right Now

Everyone knows by now that college endowment funds have gone big on alternative investing, pouring billions of dollars into private equity and hedge funds. But that investing model now seems to be under pressure and there are reports that Ivy League institutions like Yale and Harvard are looking to unload some of their more illiquid investments. So why did colleges get into alts in the first place? And how do they select which funds to invest in? In this episode, we speak with Joe Dowling, the f...

May 01, 202547 min

Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying

Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even harder. People aren't responding to surveys like they used to. Survey responses have also become a lot more divided along political lines. And at the same time, the Trump administration wants to cut back on government spending, and the worry is that fewer official resources will make tracking the US economy even harder for statistical departments th...

Apr 30, 202547 min

What We Learned About Treasuries on the Night of April 8

When stocks are plunging in a typical market environment, people reach for safe haven assets like US Treasuries. But we've seen that phenomenon break down more and more. It broke down in a sustained way during the intense inflation of 2022. And it's been breaking down again, in an acute way, since President Trump's so-called "Liberation Day." On the night of April 8 and early morning of April 9, we saw a major spike in yields. As Trump put it, the bond market was getting the "yips." But what was...

Apr 28, 202543 min

Lots More on How TikTok Options Traders Got Quiet

Over the last few years, retail traders have gotten into options in a major way. Selling puts, buying calls, trading volatility — what used to be the domain of niche experts engaged in practical hedging has exploded into the public sphere. And there was a lot of easy money during a time when every dip was bought, and stocks mostly just went up. But what have we seen in recent weeks, with the extraordinary trading since April 2? On this episode we bring back one of our favorite guests, Benn...

Apr 26, 202522 min

Anna Wong: Empty Shelves Are Coming Soon

If you look at most of the official hard data right now, there still isn't much evidence of a sharp downturn. Sure, all the surveys are abysmal, but the actual measures of economic activity are ok. But there is already data showing something severe is happening, and that can be seen in the volume of cargo flowing from China to the US. Of course, this is intentional. This is the whole point of tariffs. But the fear is that this is going to be acute and dramatic to consumer companies, and that it ...

Apr 25, 202524 min

David Woo: What Trump Started is Worse Than a Trade War

For the most part, Americans haven't felt much pain yet from the tariffs that Donald Trump introduced (and then partially walked back) on April 2. The damage is highly visible in financial markets, but for the moment, shelves remain stocked, inflation measures have remained muted, and there hasn't been a significant wave of layoffs in official data. But according to our guest, real pain is coming. And what's going down is worse than a trade war. On this episode, we speak with the one and only Da...

Apr 24, 202545 min

Big Take: What a Bacon, Egg and Cheese Teaches Us About the Economy

When it comes to measuring economic pain, the cost of a humble breakfast sandwich might not be top of mind. But Bloomberg has an index that tracks the rising cost of a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich, plus a cup of coffee. And this year, it’s reached record highs.On today’s Big Take podcast, we hear from people up and down the BEC supply chain — from a wheat farmer to a coffee roaster to a guy who turned his life-long love of eggs into a career. What does the most important meal...

Apr 23, 202520 min

This Is What President Biden's CHIPS Office Actually Did

One of the stated goals for the current trade war is to build more industrial capacity in the United States. So far there doesn't seem to be much of it happening. In fact, all of the manufacturing surveys (and all evidence) so far suggests the reverse. But not that long ago there was a concerted effort to build more factories in the United States. Under President Biden there was a whole host of new industrial announcements funded in part via the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. But did...

Apr 23, 202544 min

Martin Wolf on Trump's Shakeup of the Global Order

Martin Wolf has been called one of the world's most important economics commentators, and has for decades written in columns and his own books about the evolution of the global economy, chronicling the rise of globalization and the subsequent pushback to liberal trade. And he's had a lot to write about in recent weeks. President Trump's unveiling of sweeping tariffs against pretty much every single US trading partner has not only roiled global markets, but is shaking up international politics as...

Apr 21, 202559 min

Here's Why Uncertainty Is An Economic Killer

Here's Why is Bloomberg’s short explainer podcast, where we take one big news story and break it down in just a few minutes—with help from our experts across the newsroom. We're dropping into your feed with a special episode featuring Joe Weisenthal , co-host of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, who joined us while in London. In this episode: The near-daily shifts in U.S. trade policy have rattled markets and made both businesses and consumers uneasy about spending. What kind of da...

Apr 20, 202510 min

Why the Pentagon Fails Audits Year After Year After Year

Last year, it was announced that the US Department of Defense had failed an audit for its seventh straight year, indicating an ongoing inability to track its hundreds of billions of dollars in spending and inventories. Why does this keep happening? Why does the Pentagon get audited in the first place? And what can be done to fix it? On this episode, we speak with Julia Gledhill, a research analyst at the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center. She explains how the budgetary proce...

Apr 19, 202539 min
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