Here's How the New Weight Loss Drugs Could Change Everything

the sellers of these drugs. But again, what does it mean all these second and third order effects if they really become extremely widespread and it kind of looks like they're on the trajectory feels very unexplored.

And how big they could be? And which ones I have more potential than others? Like what's your like framework for like sort of just like evaluating some breakthrough in the first place.

my investing is kind of thematic investing. It's focused on these kind of paradigm shifts, these mega trends essentially, and when you see something like this, right, you know, all the feedback from channel checks is good, and it's something that we kind of needed as a you know, as a in developed markets at least for decades, right, And you just see the kind of behavioral incentives that exist

surrounding it. And I always come back to basically you look at like viagra in the nineties, and you know, you did not have to be a doctor to kind of see Pfiser just killing it, you know, just doing amazingly with this drug that solved the problem that people had that you know, needed to be fixed and it worked. And you know, honestly, that might be the reason that

most of us know who Phiser is, right. So you know, whether it's buying Maderna when they're developing a co vaccine, or buying Eli Lilly when they're developing, you know, a fat vaccine, or a Pfiser with Bager in the nineties, it all falls under the mega trend looking for kind of these paradigm thematic shifts.

into being? And how are they starting to spread through the market such that I meet vcs who will openly say that they're on a zempic and I'm pretty sure they don't actually have diabetes.

since the seventies. And GLP one's primary benefit was the fact that it was able to produce blood glucose levels via insulin release, which is you know, very desirable in a patient with diabetes. And the thing was the you know, when it comes to peptides. Normally, you're trying to mimic the peptide that your own body produces. So the actual molecule glucagon like peptide one is only to able to

create these effects for a very short time span. And so what these genius anders discovered was that they can essentially mimic these hormones and have these molecules that bind to the receptors they're called agonists, right, and that can create an effect that lasts, you know, four hours or even weeks. And that was basically the basis of the initial development and the impetus for it was essentially to

go after diabetes. Right. If you have something that can regulate glucose that is possibly dysregulated in a patient with diabetes, that's kind of something that seems desirable, right. So they were kind of predicted to also prolong this feeling of you know, fullness and slow gastric emptying. And they also provide a variety effects in the brain. And these drugs do cross the blood brain barrier. And the first GLP one drug that was approved by the FDA was Exenotide.

It was marketed under the name Bieta. So Bieta was approved in two thousand and five, right, and primarily be used in type two diabetes. And while you have something like semic glutide right now, which is ozembic generic name frozenpic, and then Munjaro, which is Lily's drug. Ters Appetite is the generic fan. And the thing is once you have a class of drugs, but you can kind of anticipate

what the side effect profile will be. It's not necessarily that you can, you know, anticipate every single side effect, but you kind of you get an idea of the structural activity relationship. You get an idea of, you know, this dose dependent curve and where side effects start becoming apparent. And so with GLP ones they have side effects, right, they have some gi side effects, and these GLP one receptor agonists, like semic glutide, they can be pretty bad.

But what Lily saw was essentially it was decided that they would try it to go after different receptors in the same system, right, so they kind of get this. It's got like Ter's Appetite. Munjaro is basically a a

dual GLP one receptor and then GIP receptor agonists. So the way that that works is the GIP activity allows you to take a higher dose before experiencing the side effects, the GI side effects, and we also kind of know you know these since these drugs, you know, Trulicity was a big one that it was approven I think twenty fourteen for type two diabetes. It saw very wide use. So when you encounter someone and they're like, oh, you know, no, for sure, these drugs are going to aunt your insides,

you know, like I don't. I don't blame them for that because if you look at the history of weight loss medication, you think Fenn Fenn, right, which like basically melted your heart. Then you know vermon event, which was like this genius invention where the scientists were like, well, you know the cannabinoid receptors basically the receptors that THHC act on, those make you hungry, So if we block those receptors, then it should make you not hungry. And

it did. But you know what else the cannabinoid receptors make you is happy. So I don't know how they didn't see it as coming, but it made people very sad and increase the likelihood that they would commit suicide. And that so that drug was pulled very quickly, and you know, you kind of look at the pass of

the weight loss industry. People take you know, tapeworm pills and just doing absolutely insane things, and it's kind of like, Okay, now you have this drug and the absolute worst concern, you know that there's a warning on the FDA label is that it may you know, it may result in thyroid cancer. But the thing is the only time that that's ever been observed with these gop one drugs is

in mice. And the thing about mice is when you're doing a trial with a mouse, the mouse is not going to tell you I can't handle these side effects anymore, I'm going to stop taking the injection. Right, No mice drop out of trial studies. So what happens is, you know, like the if you were to take the equivalent dose that caused you know, these endoprin cancers in mice, before you reach that point, you would be so sick to

the level of not being able to function. And it is so the dose was much much higher, and that, you know, the it has not been observed in humans. And the other thing is this is probably a little controversial, but the fact is, like obesity is devastating, right, it is absolutely terrible the way that increases mortality. I mean, I'm going to drop some statistics that Lily dropped on an earnings call, which is that you know, there are

two hundred and thirty six OBC related health conditions. Type two diabetes risk is increased by two hundred and forty three percent in people with obesity, heart disease by sixty nine percent, high blood pressure by one hundred and thirteen percent,

high cholesterol by seventy four percent. And the contribution to all course call all cause mortality is so significant that essentially, if I had a drug that would again this has never been observed in humans, It's probably not going to be because of the relationship that I described with the dose. But let's say I had a drug that one hundred percent, no matter what, forty years you're going to develop that

word cancer from me. Even if that was the case, if it also one hundred percent of the time made you not opdes anymore, the net effect on your life expectancy would still be positive.

and I feel like many people buy that. But the other thing is that like betting on mega trend often is not trivial in terms of even if you could predict the trend, you might not know what to invest in. And so, you know, a good example might be say like the rise of Chinese industry or something like that over in the you know, in the twenty first century,

since it's entry into the WTO. And it's not like I don't think like buying like Chinese stocks have like been like some like extraordinary winner certainly like long stretches of time where that doesn't work. So like, what's the next step from identifying mega trend to then thinking about, okay, these will be actual winners as public market investments.

You have the technology trigger, which is the Internet, and then you it kind of goes parabolic all the way up to the peak of inflated expectations, which would probably be you know, in nineteen ninety nine pets dot com type stuff where the things that are happening are absolutely ridiculous, right, the forecasts are insane. And the thing about a mega trend or you know, a theme that is persistent, is it doesn't go unnoticed for very long. It can be

a significant amount of time. But you know, you speak about like Chinese industry in the twenty first century, you know, like there was a period of time where you could have been early on that and you could have invested and made excellent returns that you know, the peak of inflated expectations, and then uh kind of exited before I guess I think maybe there was kind of a byphasics, so maybe it would have been the Asian currency crisis. But the then what happens is you get this trophic

disillusionment right where it's like this technology isn't real. Everything is kind of hyped up. It was all bs whatever. Right, it's a bubble, and that's exactly it was a bubble. And then you get this well, you know, the thing funny thing is people say it's a bubble while it's going up, which is kind of like when people say, you know, like, okay.

you get to kind of this trave disillusionment. And then the next phase is kind of the slope of enlightenment where you know, you borrow a phrase from the VCS, it gets democratized. You know, you can go out in the street right now. If I got on the street and I ask someone what the Internet is, they're going to look at me like I have five heads. They don't necessarily have to know how it works, but they know what it is, right, And then you get the

plateau of productivity. In the prototypical Gardner hype cycle, the plateau of productivity is actually below the peak of inflated expectations. But I think most of the time in markets it's actually higher. Obviously, there's a bit survivorship bias on this. You know, nobody that owned pets dot Com benefited from

the plateau of productivity. But if you think about you know, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, you know these you know they or even you know, you look at like the nifty to fifty in the seventies, right, like some of them have had very bad returns, like IBM. But then you know, honeywell or carry your global you know,

you get the uptake on the GDP effect. And essentially this is kind of the enemy of the mega trend, right because it's very easy to recognize it in the beginning, and then if you're too late with it, you're gonna think that the peak of inflated expectations is just the

pullback right when it's not. You know, So this is kind of something where it's good to continuously monitor whether your thesis is playing out, whether it is actually had you know, whether it's artificial intelligence or you know, like you said, the rise of Chinese industry, or the Inflation Reduction Act and the impact and impetus of fiscal spending or you know, GLP one drugs that as long as you are on top of it and you can see, you know, what are the earnings expectations like and what

are the actually you know, like like Nvidia is probably gonna you know, beaten raised for the next couple of years, but then you you know, where is going to be the point where the expectations aren't sustainable and when it comes to you know, you said you wanted to talk about the knock on effects, which kind of I mean, that's my favorite part of these things, right, like like when you actually capture a theme and you know, let me ask you a question like do you think the

knock on effects are happening yet?

Novo has wegov, which is the drug that you know just was had the big headline about twenty percent production in heart attack risk and essentially when they had you know, they can much charge what they want, right, and the way that it's going to develop is Lily's drugman jar which is much more effective, and there are other drug bredits true Tide which is still in clinical trials, but Munjara will be approved for weight loss. But at the end of this year, you know that was reaffirmed by

or within the next six months. Right, that was reaffirmed by the Lee on their earnings call. And let me get the answer to the question first, because I want to go into something that's going to answer your question, but I do want to assess, right, so you think that the not going effects are happening yet no?

this much money that doesn't have competition. Right, So, yes, Lily will get approved for Munjaro on weight loss and then there will be a duopoly and that'll probably last, I don't know, you know, anywhere from a year to three years or something like that. But to come back to Viagra, right, if you think about it, Viagra in nineteen ninety eight cost eighty eight dollars a pill. Okay,

now it costs two. There there is whether it's through generics, whether it's through competition, you know, the cialis what the way that it works is, you know, you have you have competition, you have economies of scale, you have insurance coverage, you have you know, the generic drugs. Eventually, glp ones, in fact, in twenty thirty one will face mandatory discounting under the Inflation Production Act. So are they expensive right now? Yeah?

But and to come back to what we were saying before that still did not you know, GLP ones were mentioned a thousand times in the in the in the Q two Q three earnings. Wow, that's interesting. Only half of that was by pharmaceutical companies.

I didn't really vibe with the explanation, but Metafest basically said that, you know, we're we sell things that you know, people use to lose weight, and there's like we cannot handle the competition from a drug that actually works, right that they you know, I think the direct quote is that, you know, customer acquisition is being pressured by GLP ones.

But you know what they're doing now. Their strategy is essentially okay, let's do it too, you know, yeah, everyone else's maybe right, just do something similar, yeah, exactly, and that you know, like I love a company that is like torqued up levered melting price like a melting ice cube, and then position and right in the center of like a you know, like a burgeoning you know, huge trend, right because you know, like a good example from another trend,

artificial intelligence would be like applied opt to electronics, right, which is like like it was destroyed and then you know, with eight hundred G and the data center demand for optical you know, it's a we're so back right, It was so.

Whenever you have a position that's super big, you know you're on top of it, right, and you can expense a trip to enoprenologist conference and you go there and like I'm speaking to these people and they're like, I have a patient who was eating five thousand calories a day, which is like a full time job, right, like like

five thousand. Once you get to like five thousand and six thousand calories, that's like I mean that that is like eight full meals a day, right, And he's like, I am, he's having issues because I have to recommend protein supplementation because he can't get above five hundred calories a day. So if you look at a company like Metafest, that's basically you know, selling this food that's a little bit healthier for you and you know, maybe taste the same so that you know you don't have to you're

kind of getting better macronutrients or something. I mean, there might be an opportunity there for the protein shakes, but overall, like you don't really need to worry about if you're taking this struggle, you don't really need to worry about, uh oh, you know, let me buy food that's like more that's less calorically dense, because like it doesn't matter,

you're not going to eat it anyway. And this is kind of interesting because when you're looking at when you're like monitoring social media, you know, like always monitoring, like you know, Google trends, Wikipedia trends, and for a little bit, I think this was like the middle of last year, you know, monitoring Google trends, and this Google trend comes up called ozempic face.

weight very quickly. Right. And you have another one where like people are like worried about hair loss and you know that is it's a condition called intelligent effluvium, right, which is basically the same thing when you lose too much weight. You you know, your body is kind of

like burning nutrients for energy. You're at a caloric deficit and you lose cair it's totally reversible, and with like ozembic face, It's like you can't see wrinkles on like an inflated balloon, right like it that's just how it works. And it's kind of amazing to me because you have this kind of imphasis where people are like, oh, like this is that, this is the side like we gotcha, you know, like this is I knew there was going

to be a catch. And it's like people are so unaccustomed to the idea of there being a weight loss drug that works that they are confusing the side effects of the drug with the side effects of the effects of the drug, which is you know, success being successful weight loss just.

a year. You know, it's like you're not really going to get an accurate picture, you know, majarro And also a drug where like there's only been one approved for you know, and then you get also the fact that like there are talking about, you know, mentions on earnings.

There are significant supply chain issues with these drugs right now, like like Novo's having trouble sourcing the drugs coming in autoinjector right, which is basically if you think of an EpiPen, you know, you take it once a week and you know it's like a button that you wish but you look at like like talking still about like the earnings mentions, if you look at Stevenado or Garretsheimer or even Beckton Dickinson.

The problem is that they can't produce enough of it, which would tell you something about demand, right, like, like even I.

even have anticipated this level of demand. Right during Lily's earnings call, Chris Shibatani and analyst was asking a question that was basically like Novo and Lily, you've been confronted by this demand that was like beyond what you could have possibly planned for. And with Lily, you know, Majar isn't even a proof for weight loss yet, and so essentially it would be kind of premature to say, you know what the penetration of these drugs is right now.

But what I will say is that and I have a chart that I can you know, send you maybe can put it up on the site that essentially the obesity rate in the US in nineteen seventy four was twelve percent, right, and now it's forty two percent. And for the past five decades, there have not been two sequential years in which the obescd rate has ticked down.

It hasn't happened for fifty years. So you know, when you look at that, I first off, I think it's not just reasonable but rational to think that you can't have a society that has both advanced medication and then half of its populace affected by a disease and not think that eventually those two things were resolve each other. Right.

And if you look at the sixty eight week trial data Munjarro, and you adjust for you know, the average compliance, and you know which patients dropped out prematurely, and then you adjust for the fact that about after you drop out of the trial, about half of the weight loss you still maintained about half of the weight that you lost, but about half of it goes away, and so you adjust for all those things. If Munjaro a sixty eight week trial data has a thirty percent penetration rate in

the obese population. Right, the obeset rate in the United States would be lower than it was in nineteen ninety seven. And you know, like that could happen over the course of two or three years. And so for a line that has gone up into the right to go down, you know that significantly.

looked last month, we got earnings from PEPSI. And you know, if I were to think about, like, okay, in theory, in some future world where these drugs are very cheap and widespread, and who would theoretically be losers from drugs that reduce one's appetite for fast food, for salty foods, for high carb foods, whatever it is in your mind, is it obvious that A some of these big consumer oriented companies are going to be losers, and B if it is, when would you expect to see, like what

pick a predicted quarter when maybe this would.

malign Wendy's. But the thing is, I think that if you wanted to be able to predict this, what you would have to do is you'd probably have to use all data or you know, credit card data, and you would have to look at the company and maybe eat a lot of fast foods for a month to figure out. But like, which of these companies you're going to be

my new analyst. No, which of these companies are willing to or are basically making up for or low margins with high volumes, right because the because it's not like these drugs are going to automatically make you, you know the Jack Lalane right, Like, you're not gonna You're not just gonna be like the hell you all your habits are healthy now, Like if you're eating fast food every day, you will probably continue to eat fast food every day. You will just eat a lot less of it, like

a lot less of it. And let's say chapatte for example, Yeah, probably not going to be that negatively affected, you know, like like people you know, they'll probably have the same order and they'll just finish, you know, a couple of bites bit or something. I don't necessarily want to speak to this, but just thinking of like RBI's for example, I think it's owned by a private company, so I

can you know, talk about without issue. But like the prototypical let's just speak theoretically, there's you know, all you can eat Biffet or something. They might do really well because people eat less, but at the same time they might be patronized less because you know, nobody wants all you can eat, and you're not getting a good deal anymore.

So if you have a company and you look at the data and basically the way that they make money is by selling a ton of food that they get very cheaply and make up for you know, kind of lower margins by selling a ton of it, that company probably isn't going to do too great. But you know, it wasn't just metafest for example, you know, going beyond the idea of like food being impacted, Like right now,

Lily has a trial for Munjaro. Basically, what these companies are doing is they are on this kind of blitz scale for like the data, right because like most of these things you can kind of rationally expect, like for example, with the Wigobi headline, Gooby reduces heart attack risk by twenty percent. I mean kind of like duh, you know, like like oh, like you know, if you if you go from being obese to not obese, you're going to

have a lower chance of heart attack. Right. But they but what they have to do is you know, have these you know, vigorous trials that actually prove it. Like so for example, Lily is going right now for obese induced sleep ABNA or ni osio or arthritis, and so like a company like res Med. Right, ResMed was talking about it for you know, like a while on their earnings call, and the response was essentially, you know, I'm trying to remember exactly what they said, Oh right, a

seatbad machine. The costs over a lifetime for a seatbad machine are like about fifteen thousand dollars. And then they did their own math, which was like, well, these GLP one drugs cost one thousand dollars a month, and if you multiply, if you have a forty year old patient, you multiply that by forty years, Well, really a GLP one drugs, you know it's going to cost you four

hundred and eighty thousand dollars. So obviously you know we're coming in at fourteen fifteen thousand, where obviously the option we're not going to be really affected by this. And you know, to take that into consideration, you say, why

would people be taking this for forty years? Right? Like, why would if they if someone you know, seventy percent of sleep apne is caused by obesity, If you have someone that's taking it and they take it for let's say sixteen months and they go from being obese to having a normal body weight, and then in all likelihood at least for like seventy percent of them, the obstructive

sleep abne goes away. I mean you have to just kind of the total addressable market for a company like res med or for the c PAFT industry in general, it is going to shrink, right, It's kind of and even you know, and then when people say that you know this is a fad or you know this won't work again, you look at like like when was the last fad weight loss drug that had Intuitive Surgical talking

about on the earnings call? Right, Like Intuitive Surgical they're not ready to speak to it, but they mentioned it on the earnings call. And then you have another company. I think this was my favorite one, right, and it wasn't even because of anything the company did or said. It was just because I'm reading the prepared remarks and the exact text was basically, you know, the company is called Teleflex, and it essentially it's a company that makes

devices for sleeve. But sleeve gets direct to me like the bariatric surgery weight loss surgery. You get the sleeve and the thing is, you know, sleep gas tractomy. I think the average weight loss over seventy two weeks is like twenty six or twenty seven percent, And with Munjaro it's a little bit closer to depending on the dose, between like seventeen and nineteen percent. But Lily's new drug, the triple agonist red true Tide, is showing like twenty

four to twenty five percent. Right, So in the prepared remarks, they're basically saying, we did see an effect from GLP ones on the demand for bariatric surgery, which affected the demand for our device, the Titan stapler. Wait, so if I ask you, Tracy, if you want to lose weight, would you rather take or get Titan staples? Like? Like, like you want to go with the Titan stapler? I don't think so.

going to be over a trillion. McKinsey in twenty twelve, when the OBCD rate was like I want to say, seven or eight percent lower, they estimated that OBESD results in an annual global an annual global economic impact that is equivalent to two point eight percent of the global GDP. So you think about like productivity six days, you know, workers comp injury, I mean life insurance, health insurance, workers

comp insurance. It something like that. When you have a when you have a literal disease state that is affecting forty two percent of your population, it's kind of hard not to stretch this far, you know, like like if that gets fixed. But in terms of the one that I would share on a podcast to be entertaining, I would say, like match group or bumble as along. If you look into like just general, everyone feels.

but they increase significantly for hinge. And if you look at like there are like, you know, social sciences studies about like the effects of obesity on like your how happy you are and how satisfied you are with your dating life and stuff, And I think, I don't want to butcher the results or something, but it was basically across genders, right, like if you are female or male, the effect of losing ten or twenty pounds on your average you know, satisfaction with your dating life and with

just generally how happy you are. It's a lot more significant in females. So you know, maybe if you want to like be super early and stretch it super far. Maybe the reason that like hinge is getting more popular than tendered. Maybe it's because it's easier to lose weight. I don't I would not say that in like an authoritative way, but you know, I just say, yeah, that's

that's the thing. I'm going to get quoted a like, No, this is a crazy guy thinks that, like match group is going to moon because of you know, No, I guess I just say I get, I get how the internet works, though this is I know, I know it's funny.

like endherance is not really that good. And then a very funny thing they say, because Biden had that mark on his face is our biggest side effect is President Biden had a little mark on his face and he was asked about it and it was from his CEPAP.

You mentioned that like obesity plus obesity related diseases are huge, and so if they were to go down and you see maybe you see some of that in the sort of weak stock price of res med anxiety about this?

What does it mean just like for like health insurers and also just like healthcare utilization in general, Like you know, generally we think of like healthcare as like a line that only goes up that if you're a healthcare professional, you're like gonna do very probably likely very well guaranteed demand. What is the effect on just sort of like the broader healthcare institutional healthcare industry.

going to wane because of the side effects. And when you think about it, like these drugs were originally developed for type two diabetes, and it's like, oh, you know, there's never been a drug before that was developed for one thing and then ended up being really good for the other, you know, just like Tracy said with Viagra.

And basically they said, you know, large claim activity accounted for approximately seventy five percent of the higher costs with claims over seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars, and the remaining twenty five percent is related to higher than expected pharmacy costs. As for higher pharmacy costs, we experienced an in increase and utilization of the specialty drugs, including a significant step up in the use of diabetes and weight

loss drugs. And then they talk about behavioral health drugs to behavioral health drugs too, which is probably you know, I mean, I don't know, that's a whole different conversation with COVID and behavioral health drugs. And you know, like how people have emotionally reacted to the last three years. But when you look at it, for insparity. It's probably bad right now because you know, as long as these companies have a duopoly on these drugs, the cost will

probably be hot. But that can only last for so long. You know that eventually there will be competition. Eventually the cost will go down. Eventually it'll be like Biagra, where it goes from you know, eighty eight dollars pill to whatever two dollars a pill. Maybe it was bad quarter for insparity. Maybe that continues for a little bit while

they're still expensive, and then eventually it'll get better. But when you think of it from let's say Signa or United Healthcare Signa on their earnings called they said, you know, GLP ones are definitely top of mind for many of our clients. There's been a meaningful upticking utils station. And essentially what they said was, you know, there's a continued

interest in behavioral solutions. You know, these insurance companies they will like pay for you to get a gym membership, or they'll pay for you to get a meal plan or something, and the success rates of those things are dismal, like absolutely awful, right and you know it doesn't work. And insurance companies are stakeholders in global health, right, and they're really good and anticipating how much it's going to cost and making sure, you know that they make more

money than what it's going to cost. But as an epidemic, this is still like a relatively new thing. The obesity rate has never been forty two percent before, and so what do how can we really accurately model what that's going to look like in fifty years? I mean, you know, maybe if it continues the way that it's going unobated, I think that ultimately, you know, health insurance that it's

going to be a significant hit. So what you're seeing is these drug drug companies essentially going on these data campaigns, which is, you know, we're going to show you not just that it results in weight loss. We're going to do a study and a clinical trial on every single one of the beneficial effects of losing weight. Right, We're going to say, oh, obstructive sleep, at hyper lipidemia, hypertension, heart disease, type two diabetes, knee replacements, all of this stuff.

And then eventually it is for Signa or for United Healthcare, it is going to be They're they're going to do what insurance companies do. They're going to negotiate. They're going to push down the price. They're gonna you know, they're gonna there's going to be pushback. There's going to be what cut gets covered and what doesn't, especially after Munjara

gets approved for OBCD. But at the end of the day, the thing is they are basically going to have to do a cost benefit analysis, and there is no way in my mind, I think really even if they were paying one hundred and fifty percent of what Lily's charging and didn't negotiate at all, over the course of the next twenty or thirty years, they would probably make money. Like they would probably be a better situation than it would be without it, you know, not to get too

like insanely off the rails. But again, it's a podcast, so.

But what I'll tell you is it probably was similar to how many people are going to dive over city this year. You know, I don't want to like speak without facts in front of me, but I would say, you know, if if someone wants to go look that up and you know, whether it's how many people divebcity this year or how many and five years, I would say that they are probably comparable public health crises. And

also in terms of the impact on the economy. Obviously, nothing can rival shutting down the entire economy and you know,

having a lockdown. But if you look at it from a cube versus chronic perspective, you know, if obesity is going to cost us a trillion dollars this year in indirect costs, and we're running it a trillion dollars a year, I mean over the next ten years, like what it just seems like something where it let's say that you know, Lily and Novo and all the other companies that eventually join the FRAY that they're effective in proving that the

side effects are moderate and that the overall benefit is sustained, and it's good. Why would the government not cover it? Right? Like, if they're if they'll cover COVID vaccine, should probably cover this too, especially if it has a twenty percent production like heart attacks.

But now I'm going back to that price over volume oh theme. And James brought it up as well, which is, well, if you're Wendy's and people just aren't buying as many cheeseburgers, then maybe you just raise your prices to offset it.

that's exactly right. If you feel more confident, then maybe, like you know what, I'm ready to I don't mind being seen at the gym. All kinds of interesting questions, Like I like the idea of like, you know, Madge or Hinge is a bye or is like a winner here? So that was a very fun thought insperiment, and it was fun in the context that he knew so many details, so it was like also kind of real nudges.