The data of activity past has begun. This week’s payroll report is only one month and stale (Sept), but on the margin tempers some downside risk. Combined with the bulk of data coming after the Fed’s Dec meeting, a pause looks sensible. Asia views are upgraded, but possibly with a little too much verve. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on November 11, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/...
Nov 22, 2025•37 min•Ep. 379
The balance of risks has been buffeted by resilient spending and survey data (the tick) and weak labor market data (and the tock). After a tick of solid 3Q GDP tracking and improving PMIs through October, we once again see the tock of even weaker labor market data this week from the US and Western Europe. Resilience into next year depends on how well the tick weathers the tock. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 14 November 2025. This communication is provided for ...
Nov 14, 2025•35 min•Ep. 378
Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and improving activity data from Asia and Europe. Whether IEEPA tariffs are reversed may not change Trump’s mission (with numerous tools still at his disposal) but it could indicate that this Supreme Court has some limits—with a possible read-through to the Fed Governor Lisa Cook court case in January. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast wa...
Nov 07, 2025•33 min•Ep. 377
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic of tariff-induced inflation in the US. The global top-down message remains one of continued sticky inflation around 3%. Along with the trimming of downside growth risks, this has unsurprisingly prompted central banks to turn less dovish. While US core inflation has risen less than expected at the outset of the trade war, it is running well above ta...
Nov 04, 2025•30 min•Ep. 376
Gbolahan Taiwo and Katie Marney discuss the improving outlook for African economies. Fiscal, monetary and FX reforms, rebuilt external reserves, improving terms of trade, declining inflation, and monetary easing are putting African economies on a more solid footing. Gbolahan and Katie go through takeaways for Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda. Speakers Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Gbolahan Taiwo, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Thi...
Nov 03, 2025•45 min•Ep. 374
After two weeks off, the Weekender returns with an exploration of the upside and downside risks to the growth outlook and the implications of each for inflation and central bank behavior. We also discuss the outcome of the Trump Asia tour. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Cha...
Oct 31, 2025•34 min•Ep. 373
Debate over the growth picture continues with global expenditure data through September showing resilience but the labor market a key area of weakness. Whether wealth effects will cushion the coming purchasing power squeeze in the US is unclear. But we maintain that there is a tension in risk markets pricing both resilience and a Fed that returns rates to neutral, with inflation looking sticky absent a more material soft patch in growth. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is...
Oct 17, 2025•35 min•Ep. 372
A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the bullish view of risk assets poses more of an asymmetric risk distribution for the US. Fiscal policies have tilted easier this year, a theme we stressed in our year-ahead outlook, but the latest developments (France, Japan, China, US) do not move the global needle much. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 10 October 20...
Oct 10, 2025•43 min•Ep. 371
The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lift are set to fade and that the factors of drag are intensifying. These are just narratives for now, but keep the risks for a bend-but-not break global outlook skewed to the downside and the Fed in insurance easing mode. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 3 October 2025. This communication is provided for information p...
Oct 03, 2025•38 min•Ep. 370
The global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in global employment is striking. Strong wealth gains and a falling saving rate are supporting consumer spending for now. But labor income growth is softening broadly, and is set to take a sharp leg down next quarter in the US. Absent a bounce back in hiring, the expansion will be on shaky ground. This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This commu...
Sep 26, 2025•33 min•Ep. 369
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications for monetary policy. This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report s at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085949-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5083938-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research...
Sep 26, 2025•26 min•Ep. 368
Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean for productivity gains. Tech investment accounted for about a third of US GDP growth––and much of the expansion in domestic final sales––in 1H25. While hyperscaler capex levels are expected to stay high in coming years, current growth rates are unlikely to be sustained, implying a smaller GDP contribution in 2026. We also discuss potential mismeas...
Sep 23, 2025•27 min•Ep. 367
Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get the Fed to cut this week and signal two more by year-end, even if not the start of a more aggressive easing cycle. Beneath the surface, 4-6 quarters of weak job growth with trend-like GDP growth raises questions about the structure of the economy while also adding to near-term vulnerabilities. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was ...
Sep 19, 2025•38 min•Ep. 366
The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questions arise over growth without jobs and the Fed’s responsibility to it. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All r...
Sep 12, 2025•47 min•Ep. 365
Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk assessments and the direction central banks will travel. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 5 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. Thi...
Sep 05, 2025•37 min•Ep. 364
Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend growth this quarter. With tariff and immigration drags still building, do we just delay the expected pothole or fill it over? The Fed is set to cut, but strong growth, high-and-rising inflation, and threats to independence complicate the path beyond. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2025. This communicatio...
Aug 29, 2025•38 min•Ep. 363
Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed looks likely to restart its easing cycle in September. The addition of Stephen Miran to the Fed opens the door to significant reforms, some of which could threaten independence. This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures ...
Aug 08, 2025•30 min•Ep. 362
Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-involution measures are gaining traction. This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025. This communic...
Aug 08, 2025•32 min•Ep. 361
First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week’s news on global industry and the US labor market affirms our call. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 1 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights...
Aug 01, 2025•31 min•Ep. 360
Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composition since about 2015. Hopes that a weaker US dollar would break EM capital flows out its malaise have not been fulfilled. We explore our finding that dollar’s influence as a push factor for EM investment flows has been waning, while US Treasury yields matter m...
Jul 29, 2025•49 min•Ep. 359
As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate initially announced on April 2. And yet, the global expansion looks resilient through 1H25. Is the shock just not that big? Is there more fundamental support for growth? Are businesses willing to smooth the shock over time? Are easy financial conditions short-circuiting the shock? Or is it just too soon, with the past flattered by front-loading and ...
Jul 25, 2025•40 min•Ep. 358
The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed ...
Jul 18, 2025•35 min•Ep. 356
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent month...
Jul 17, 2025•32 min•Ep. 355
Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign outlook apparent in risk markets, we see downside risks edging higher on US trade and immigration policies. Recent US fiscal policies should provide some offset but likely less than advertised. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 11 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional cl...
Jul 11, 2025•32 min•Ep. 354
We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in forecasting the magnitude of this shift. We expect global GDP growth to fall well below potential, while the US tariff shock is expected to increase overall global inflation. Despite the uncertainty, we are observing a shift in market signals away from the narrative of weaker growth and rising inflation. One key message from the markets is a growing c...
Jun 27, 2025•38 min•Ep. 353
The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessing risks ahead of such an anticipated slowing is difficult but this does not stop us from debating. Central banks are leaning dovish in light of the downside growth risks, with the exception of the Fed facing upside tariff-related inflation risks. The Mideast war adds a new supply shock to complicate...
Jun 20, 2025•38 min•Ep. 352
The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the coming downshift in global growth. For its part we expect the FOMC will remain cautious this week and reduce the easing incorporated in its 2025 projections even in the face of benign inflation news. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institution...
Jun 13, 2025•35 min•Ep. 351
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-through from tariffs is still expected to push US core inflation higher with core PCE rising to 3.4% on a 4q/4q basis. At the same time, the Euro area’s path to 2% core HICP looks more assured after the unwind of the April Easter effect. We still think US trade poli...
Jun 12, 2025•29 min•Ep. 350
The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is transitory front-loading set to reverse in 2H25 is central to the outlook. The data show resilience, notably in job growth, but cracks are growing in global industry. We maintain a baseline of no recession while also seeing risks elevated at 40%. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 6 June 2025. This communication is provi...
Jun 06, 2025•30 min•Ep. 349
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain that the risks are skewed toward higher, not lower, tariffs. However, the trajectory of growth is complicated by prior front-loading and there is debate about how to track resilience. Weakness could presage recession, muddle-through, or rebound. The latter scenario risks Fed cuts only to be followed by hikes. This podcast was recorded on May 30, 2025....
May 30, 2025•32 min•Ep. 348
