Global Data Pod Research Rap: The growth effects of AI capex
Episode description
Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean for productivity gains. Tech investment accounted for about a third of US GDP growth––and much of the expansion in domestic final sales––in 1H25. While hyperscaler capex levels are expected to stay high in coming years, current growth rates are unlikely to be sustained, implying a smaller GDP contribution in 2026. We also discuss potential mismeasurement of tech investment in the GDP accounts.
This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2025.
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