Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels. Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data f...
May 24, 2025•37 min•Ep. 347
The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its draconian trade war policies, culminating this week in a substantial markdown in the tariff on China. We no longer see a US recession as likely but still see growth being weak over the rest of the year and also note downside risks if the trade war re-escalates. This podcast was recorded on May 16, 2025. This communication is provided for informatio...
May 16, 2025•26 min•Ep. 346
The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loading that will impart a drag going forward, 2) material trade war drags that will further damp activity, and 3) sentiment that is falling sharply and risks becoming a drag on its own. Trade war news this week does not move the needle in our view. The Fed is equally balanced on rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate and unlikely to act absent a...
May 09, 2025•21 min•Ep. 345
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming US policy storm. Whether it is enough to support the transition to the trade war is the central question. Regardless, even absent recession, the risk of an extended period of soft growth should also be a concern. One factor underlying this risk is a lack of potential policy offsets, particularly in the US where the Fed is likely to remain on extende...
May 02, 2025•34 min•Ep. 344
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this quarter and next. At the same time, inflationary impulses in the rest of the world appear tilted to t...
Apr 30, 2025•29 min•Ep. 343
The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster and point to a material deceleration. Whether this turns to recession will depend on the degree to which the US backpedals its war on trade. Beyond any near-term outcome, the risk is that the dismantling of the global trading order will do permanent damage. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025. This communica...
Apr 25, 2025•35 min•Ep. 342
China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what policymakers might do to mitigate the trade shock. This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2025. This co...
Apr 24, 2025•31 min•Ep. 341
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentiment looks to be souring. We maintain our recession call but also see the uniqueness of the event and note that timing is uncertain in an otherwise resilient expansion. Central banks turn a bit more cautious. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 04/17/2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Inst...
Apr 17, 2025•38 min•Ep. 340
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us. A 10% universal tax is still a very large shock (7.5x the 2018-19 trade war) and the huge 145% tax (and rising) on China is prohibitive. You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect pain everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60% likelihood of a US/global recession. This podcast was recorded on 04/11/2025....
Apr 11, 2025•46 min•Ep. 339
A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds to 60%. Along with the magnitude, the design of US tariff policies is hard to make sense of. Tit-for-tat retaliatory policies are underway. Beyond the cyclical damage, the long-term harm to the US is a much larger concern. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025. This communication is provided for information...
Apr 04, 2025•33 min•Ep. 338
Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment. With the latest tariff increases set to push US core inflation above 4%ar next quarter, a household sector with a healthy balance will need to show a willingness to lower its saving rate to cushion this blow. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This commun...
Mar 28, 2025•30 min•Ep. 337
Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are shaping our inflation views. Global goods prices are firming even before tariffs were put in place, with pressures broadening outside the US. As more tariffs are imposed, this puts the onus on still-sticky services inflation to do much of the heavy lifting in getting inflation down. We retain our sticky global core inflation view and see upside risks...
Mar 26, 2025•28 min•Ep. 336
Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion. The trade drag weighing down 1Q25 US growth is reflecting a boost elsewhere, particularly in Asia where the latest news points to a surge in trade activity in advance of prospective tariffs. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional c...
Mar 21, 2025•35 min•Ep. 335
The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent a détente in the US war on trade and other domestic austerity measures, we put the risk of recession this year at 40%. Next week’s Fed meeting should aim to not make waves. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025. See the Daily consumer spending tracker (https://jpmm-internal.jpmchase.net/research/open/latest...
Mar 14, 2025•29 min•Ep. 334
A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods got pushed back (again) to April, noncompliant goods (estimated at 20% of total imports) will be tariffed at 25%. The impact of the chaos alongside the austerity measures of DOGE are likely to weigh on confidence and growth. Odds of global recession this year have jumped to 40%. Absent recession and against the backdrop of a sharp projec...
Mar 07, 2025•33 min•Ep. 333
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks stemming from higher tariffs . While there are reasons to fade elements of the January upside inflation surprise, global core inflation remains stuck at a 3% pace and we have nudged our 1Q25 forecast upward to 3.4%ar. Moreover, headline inflation has firmed to a 3.7%ar over the past three months after a slide to 2.6%ar over the prior six months. T...
Mar 04, 2025•31 min•Ep. 332
Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci, of the US Economics team, discuss their latest Research Note on the challenges for meeting the many disparate objectives of the Trump tariffs, and what that might mean for tariff revenues. Speakers: Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canadian Economist Murat Tasci, Senior US Economist This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/researc...
Mar 03, 2025•19 min•Ep. 331
We see more momentum loss in the data and question how much is noise and how much is signal; we also question what that signal is if any. This then sets the foundation for assessing the risks related to the multitude of US policy risks on the horizon. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025...
Feb 28, 2025•32 min•Ep. 330
Nicolaie, Katie, Gbolahan and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge from policy actions taken by the Trump administration around FDI, trade and aid flows. In addition, they discuss an impending review of US membership to international organizations, which could encompass the World Bank and IMF, and how that could impact the EM Edge. Speakers: Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Researc...
Feb 26, 2025•29 min•Ep. 329
The cyclical momentum into year-end is losing some steam at the start of the year—how much so is debatable. Uncertainties around US policy are the key risks to the outlook. Looking through the range of Trump policy initiatives, the balance of risks looks to be tilting more negative—again, how much so is debatable. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www...
Feb 21, 2025•25 min•Ep. 328
The latest data show downside surprises to growth and upside surprises to inflation. However, with so much noise at the start of the year, it is hard to take too much signal and with fundamentals still solid, we are comfortable with the outlook for healthy global growth this quarter. The risk is more looking forward and how the flood of back-and-forth Trump policies is impacting business decision making. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 14 February 2025. This com...
Feb 14, 2025•26 min•Ep. 327
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the global expansion remains on solid footing for now. According to this week’s January surveys, the firming in global industry late last year looks to have continued into 2025. However, US policy churn—including an unexpected trade war on its closest trading partners—has increased uncertainties that are likely to be a new headwind, particularly on business spending. US fiscal policies are limited by already elevated deficits, adding to concern...
Feb 07, 2025•35 min•Ep. 326
Tariffs could lift global inflation this year, but business cycle dynamics are likely to play an important role in driving core inflation performance. Consistent with our forecast that the global economy turns into the new year generating above-trend growth, we anticipate that global core CPI (ex China and Türkiye) will rise at a 3%ar in 1H25, in line with its 2024 outcome. Alongside a firming in core goods inflation, services inflation looks set to continue but should be limited and divergent a...
Feb 05, 2025•36 min•Ep. 325
In a week of news regarding ongoing resilient growth and still-solid inflation, our key call of a Trump-lite policy outcome this year is being severely challenged with the confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Such an outturn would not only weigh more heavily on the global outlook but also undermine the US expansion given the centrality of the US’s most important trading partners. Amid a flurry of central bank meetings, we largely got what was expected. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph ...
Jan 31, 2025•33 min•Ep. 324
Michael Hanson, senior US and Canadian economist, and Gabriel Lozano, Head of Mexico Economics, discuss their latest Research Note on the Trump administration’s threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. They explore the motivations, risks for retaliation, potential economic implications, and consequences for USMCA. This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.c...
Jan 28, 2025•31 min•Ep. 323
While absent of immediate trade war, the start of the Trump administration brought little clarity to the US policy path ahead, and we do not change our key calls. Against this backdrop, the global economy is humming along with news supporting our call for global industry to perk up in the coming months. Among the many central banks meeting next week, the Fed (hold) and ECB (-25bp) will be a reminder of the stark divergence between these two economies. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This po...
Jan 24, 2025•32 min•Ep. 322
Monday’s Inauguration Day in the US will not be a lifting of the policy fog that many are hoping for but rather just the start of a broad set of sweeping policy changes, the effects of which will take months (or longer) to understand. Still, a likely wave of executive orders will begin a period of busy policy and data tracking. Global industry looks to have perked up at year-end but the surveys remain depressed. Tracking the state of global sentiment as it processes the coming flurry of US actio...
Jan 17, 2025•31 min•Ep. 321
Jahangir Aziz joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US trade policy, its impact on the rest of the world and how views on tariffs have evolved in the past month or so. Our 2025 outlook assumes that new tariffs from the Trump administration will be targeted at China. A clear risk to our baseline view is that increases in US tariffs will be more widespread. Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research This ...
Jan 14, 2025•30 min•Ep. 320
Recent data support our long-standing view for resilient growth, elevated sticky inflation, and constrained central bank easing. The known unknowns around US policy reinforce these views but are also raising financial and macro risks that have both a directional and timing uncertainty. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Kasman This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures...
Jan 10, 2025•25 min•Ep. 319
Sajjid Chinoy joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for EM Asian economies in 2025. The tech cycle upswing, underpinned by AI-related demand, has been crucial to the region’s resilience in 2024. While these tech tailwinds are likely to sustain, the regional outlook for 2025 is heavily clouded by a US-China Trade War 2.0. In contrast to the last US-China trade war, the rest of the region is more vulnerable this time around because activity is still much below the pre-pandemic path and the...
Jan 09, 2025•31 min•Ep. 318
