It doesn't help that policymakers and Economists quite openly admit they will and even should lie to you about the state of the economy. But to go so far as to call legitimate and widely-shared criticism misinformation is taking this too far. The reason it is going this way is just how difficult the situation has become, which brings us back to the first point: who's actually telling the truth? Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre Should Economists Deceive? Prosocial Lying, Pa...
May 27, 2024•18 min•Ep. 787
After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not good first signs for the bubble unwind. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg A Really Bad Sign for Commercial Real Estate https:/...
May 26, 2024•19 min•Ep. 786
On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at Press Conference Ahead of th...
May 24, 2024•19 min•Ep. 785
The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Target Corp First Quarter Earnings https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-corporation-reports-first-qua...
May 23, 2024•19 min•Ep. 784
There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s). Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Boston Fed How do We Measure Standard of Living https://www.b...
May 22, 2024•19 min•Ep. 783
Apple becomes just latest corporation to report results in line with recent macro statistics. That list now includes Home Depot and even today's Red Lobster bankruptcy. People are struggling and businesses are noticing and feeling the impact. But how far has it gone? Some other metrics are not encouraging. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Apple Second Quarter Earnings https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/05/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/ CNBC Apple announces largest-ever ...
May 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 782
Business at Walmart is brisk these days...and that's a big problem. The better things go for the company especially at the grocery department the worse you know it is in the economy. And the big retailer just put up robust results because it isn't just struggling Americans coming in to shop, Walmart is now getting tons of business from high-income earners, too, because now they're struggling. Not exactly the soft landing signal we'd hoped. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre N...
May 20, 2024•18 min•Ep. 781
The Chinese have sold a record amount of US Treasuries. Again. Most mainstream explanations point to political motives including many asserting an intentional act to move away from the dollar. The actual reason is indeed monetary but not at all in that way. The important immediate implications tell us a lot about the conditions for the globally synchronized economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification https:...
May 19, 2024•19 min•Ep. 780
A major global central bank would never hike rates during a prolonged recession, would it? You might be surprised to find out the answer is a solid, yes. Not only did it just happen, the reasons why tell us a whole lot about the real aim of central bank policies, where they come from, and, more important of all, the status of our globally synchronized world. The cycle drama just got taken up a notch. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Japan’s Economy Sputters as Dismal ...
May 17, 2024•18 min•Ep. 779
They called it the most important economic update in living memory, holding the key to everything from inflation to economy and interest rates. When it came out, it wasn't what everyone thought and even more interesting those numbers ended up being overshadowed by another set alarmingly consistent with everything else we've been seeing lately. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS April US CPI press release https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf Bloomberg Here Are the Key ...
May 16, 2024•18 min•Ep. 778
When the person who is supposed to help you find a job finds out they no longer have one themselves, that's a warning sign about the economy. Those have been proliferating lately and mostly focused on employment. This fits nicely (in a bad way) into other late cycle signals coming across including a sharp rise in consumer credit delinquencies. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Indeed Message from CEO https://www.indeed.com/press/releases/a-message-from-our-ceo-chris-hyams-2 FRBN...
May 15, 2024•19 min•Ep. 777
China's total credit in April actually fell for only the third time and by the most ever. Clearly the government is alarmed by that as well as the distinct lack of traction in the real economy (more deflation in producer prices, minimal gains in consumer prices). We'll go over what was just reported, what the government's next government plan is likely to be, and what the market(s) reaction(s) has(have) been. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NYT Biden Looks to Thwart Surge of C...
May 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 776
There is a resurgence underway not from consumer prices as everyone thinks, instead the use of the term "stagflation." This is really nothing more than the shift in narrative attempting to incorporate more visible economic weakness while still keeping it the idea "inflation." But as the former takes the forefront, the latter will continue to fade until what's left isn't even stagnation. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twit...
May 13, 2024•19 min•Ep. 775
Another critical economic measures shows big negative changes and they aren't "inflation" problems. It's not just that American consumers are cracking, the consistent theme which keeps coming up over and over is jobs. The US labor market has been stuck in half a recession already, is this now the other half? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis UofM Surveys of Consumers http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ CNBC Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey sh...
May 12, 2024•20 min•Ep. 774
The one news article in the media said it all; more companies are now cutting their prices despite inflation. Except, no, it isn't in spite of other price changes, instead in response to them. The economy isn't inflationary, it is weak and getting weaker. Eye opening new data is alarmingly consistent with the price cuts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNN Retailers jacked up prices and squeezed consumers. They might have just blinked https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/business/re...
May 10, 2024•20 min•Ep. 773
Japan's government conducted three (unconfirmed) major currency interventions in less than a week. Already JPY is falling almost like they never happened. It's the dollar that's the matter because what's the matter isn't just Japan and like a lot of things energy is the key. As the Japanese understand all too well, energy means dollars. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg BOJ’s Ueda Ramps Up Yen Warnings While Traders Keep Selling https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...
May 09, 2024•19 min•Ep. 772
FreightWaves Texas’ Arnold Transportation acquired by Canada’s Pride Group Logistics https://www.freightwaves.com/news/texas-arnold-transportation-acquired-by-canadas-pride-group-logistics Global NewsWire Pride Group Logistics Expands U.S. Presence With the Acquisition of Arnold Transportation Services, Inc. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/02/01/2377007/0/en/Pride-Group-Logistics-Expands-U-S-Presence-With-the-Acquisition-of-Arnold-Transportation-Services-Inc.html FreightWaves 92-...
May 07, 2024•18 min•Ep. 771
The first disappointment from payrolls in what seems like forever is only the start. It follows a number of increasingly ugly developments including a solid shocker from the US services sector - and its own measure of employment. In addition to reviewing the latest updates, Jeff and Steve also take apart the "dovish" QT myth that has popped up. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
May 06, 2024•18 min•Ep. 770
What would the price of oil be without Saudi Arabia's actions? What would Treasury yields be without the Fed? There is a way for us to determine what the underlying fundamental monetary and financial conditions really are which offers a rough approximation for both. Crude would be a lot less and market interest rates, let's just say there's no inflation whatsoever in these fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter....
May 05, 2024•24 min•Ep. 769
We need to confront the fact there remains a serious problem in the US with Marxism. To successfully counter the threat REQUIRES first we understand why that is and what keeps it going. It's not enough to "clap back" with platitudes correctly pointing to Communism's barbaric history. Nor is the modern world's prosperity a sufficient counterargument. The true Socialist admits that's what capitalism was supposed to have accomplished. The entire matter revolves around whether that last statement tr...
May 03, 2024•19 min•Ep. 768
Hiring has near completely dried up in the US labor market, contrary to all mainstream talk of a booming economy. JOLTS hires was the lowest since March and April 2020, and apart from those the worst in six and a half years. That substantial weakness was further corroborated by some of the biggest companies in the world reporting sharply lower results on increasing consumer difficulties. Yet, everyone will be focused entirely on the Fed and its absurd "inflation" fixation. Eurodollar University'...
May 02, 2024•17 min•Ep. 767
Evidence for demand destruction in the US economy is really piling up. Consumer sentiment tumbled, services businesses in parts of the country are shedding workers in a way and to a degree we only see during recession, and major Midwest manufacturing plunged. All that was just today. The common theme through each one is a change in employment conditions and not the good one. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis the Conference Board Consumer Confidence https://www.conference-board.o...
May 01, 2024•20 min•Ep. 766
The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FDIC Press Release https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/fulton-bank-na-lancaster-pennsylvania-assumes-substantially-all-de...
Apr 30, 2024•20 min•Ep. 765
This week's big miss in US GDP raises several questions about the state of the economy. It was significant enough to immediately call into doubt the soft landing. Last year's surge now appears to have been just a short run temporary jump, meaning GDP might be joining the majority of macro data indicating much sharper and more serious weakness than was though just before the data's release. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre S&P Global April 2024 flash PMIs https://www.pmi...
Apr 29, 2024•18 min•Ep. 764
It's not just that Japan's yen is crashing, it's what a yen crash means to everyone not only in Japan. But why? All you'll hear from the mainstream and most "experts" is that every currency exchange rate movement including JPY must be somehow related to a central bank, especially the Fed. It's a myth easily debunked. When doing the debunking the real truth emerges and it's not good. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Yen Drops Beyond 158 Per Dollar as BOJ Keeps Key Rate...
Apr 28, 2024•21 min•Ep. 763
GDP comes in the worst in two years because prices shot up again, therefore the term "stagflation" is going to be everywhere. Which prices changed actually makes a huge difference given the fact those particular prices are more likely to help the US economy get back to its depression tendencies. And on that count, we have irrefutable proof from oil, gasoline, and energy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_E...
Apr 26, 2024•17 min•Ep. 762
Uncle Sam tried his best to buy a recovery. The sheer amount of money redistributed by the federal govt the past four years is incomprehensible. Here's the thing: the transfers didn't stop in 2021. A huge chunk of them kept going right on to today. And still it wasn't enough to stabilize an economy that is showing signs of even more weakening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Apr 25, 2024•18 min•Ep. 761
Oil prices aren't inflationary, they're disinflationary. We are getting more proof right now as incoming data shows demand being destroyed. This is creating difficulties for the US economy on top of severe strain around the rest of the world. Several key markets are picking up the distress, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917 Federal Reserve Financial S...
Apr 24, 2024•18 min•Ep. 760
The Fed's latest semi-annual report on financial risks contains a couple of important updates. First, we get a sense of where the systemic attempt to deal with the downside to the commercial real estate bubble stands. That also feeds into the most recent updates on US banks and the deteriorating credit environment. Plus, we also take a look at why the Fed's report singled-out the stock market and what that means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Federal Reserve Financial Stabil...
Apr 23, 2024•19 min•Ep. 759
There is a tendency to conflate the behavior of consumer prices with the condition of the economy. With the current mania over recent CPIs in full bloom, fears extend into the real economy. Is it really "too hot?" Recent data from the Federal Reserve itself actually helps separate the facts from the misperceptions. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre Beige Book April 2024 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdf https://www.eurodollar.univers...
Apr 22, 2024•19 min•Ep. 758
