Soft landings and resilient economy supported by strength in labor markets. At least that's the narrative, the truth is completely different. Much of the developed world is being swept up in a wave of rising unemployment. Yes, including the US.;/ Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bank of Canada https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/06/opening-statement-2024-06-05/ https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jul 01, 2024•19 min•Ep. 817
Another new low for JPY as the Japanese government is shuffling up its top Finance Ministry people. Everyone continues to blame the Fed for the yen's crash but the evidence conclusively shows that's not it. This only raises the question, what is it? The yen's own track record holds the answer and it is one that applies to you. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Japan names new FX diplomat as yen hits 38-year low https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-appoints-atsushi-...
Jun 30, 2024•19 min•Ep. 816
Retail and Pharmacy giant Walgreens now says there won't be a second half rebound after all, not according to its view of the consumer economy. It was seconded by Levi's and then European behemoth H&M. All of that ties together with a record low in US pending home sales and a summer driving season that's already an enormous bust as recession forces bear down. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NBCNews Walgreens plans store closures as CEO says consumers 'stunned' by prices ht...
Jun 28, 2024•18 min•Ep. 815
China's top central banker confirmed last week the intention to radically change the operations of the Peoples' Bank of China. Some have speculated this equates to an imminent QE, but that has nothing to do with the reform. We've seen this before. The issue is bank, not central bank. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BNP Implications of China's Impaired Transmission Mechanism https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/f3e3ee55-9e19-455f-a1a6-08123581e2e9 SCMP Xi Jinping to Ch...
Jun 27, 2024•20 min•Ep. 814
There have been a whole bunch of ripples through the monetary system coming in from all angles pointing toward a sizable collateral disruption. The primary culprit(s) appears to be from Europe, starting in bond spreads surging off election uncertainty though we can't discount the ECB's rate cut as a factor. The eurodollar aftershocks are pronounced regardless of origin. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IOSCO Securities Lending Transactions: Market Development and Implications h...
Jun 26, 2024•19 min•Ep. 813
Japanese banks have been bulking up on US junk corporate credit for the last year, driven entirely by an increasingly difficult reach for yield. That means overlooking dangers and risks which in other less distorted times would have been taken more seriously. The end result is a large and growing distortion in a key part of the credit markets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bank of Japan Financial System Report October 2019 https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/brp/fsr/data/fsr19...
Jun 25, 2024•20 min•Ep. 812
Copper and aluminum were soaring and so were reflation expectations for the global economy. If the world wasn't too careful, those might even lead to resurgent inflation. What's happening in those and other commodities has shocked market observers. As has the most recent global macro data. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Ra...
Jun 24, 2024•19 min•Ep. 811
Another CRE securitized structure is reportedly causing losses for its top tier, this one in another country and from a different corner of the real estate market. This matches recent reports that big banks are quietly beginning to sell their seniors in the space. Moreover, US homebuilder activity has plunged to new lows as the crosscurrents in the economy and financing are getting more unfavorable. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Fa...
Jun 23, 2024•20 min•Ep. 810
The Swiss National Bank surprised Economists by cutting rates for the second time in a row. Citing a number of potential worries starting with more recession, the rate cuts are aligned with growing dollar troubles roiling the rest of the world. Major currencies are sinking fast, hitting new lows and pointing toward the same reasoning just acted on in Switzerland. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg SNB Silence Sets Up Another Rate-Cut Cliffhanger https://www.bloomberg.co...
Jun 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 809
A Japanese bank giant announced it was going to begin selling tens of BILLIONS in USTs and other European government bonds knowing full well the institution is going to take huge losses on the sales. Is this the start of another bank run? Will this kill the Treasury market? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis About Norinchukin Bank https://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/about/ Norinchukin Financial Summary Fiscal Year 2023 https://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/ir/results/pdf/cap_results2023_04_0...
Jun 20, 2024•20 min•Ep. 808
The data continues to pour in showing US consumers have indeed hit the wall. Spending is down according to a variety of sources, including the latest update on retail sales for May. There is also a growing body of evidence indicating there is more weakness to come starting with summer vacations. All this indicates the chances of full-blown recession are rising sharply. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNN Evidence is mounting that the American shopper is cutting back https://ed...
Jun 19, 2024•16 min•Ep. 807
Consumer confidence has dropped sharply over the past few months as Americans are now more concerned about jobs and incomes than prices. The shift has been so pronounced that even members of the mainstream media are questioning FOMC officials. Hardly strong and resilient, there's rising unemployment and declining confidence mixed with a bevy corporate warnings. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre FRB Chair Jay Powell Press Conference June 12, 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch...
Jun 17, 2024•20 min•Ep. 805
Housing prices in China plunged in May, accelerating sharply after April's big drop indicating the situation in the real estate market is getting closer to becoming disorderly. There will be fallout across the world should that happen, as there already is across China's economy as the latest data also showed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Needed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-17/world-...
Jun 17, 2024•19 min•Ep. 806
Conventional 'wisdom' says that when US$ interest rates go down the dollar goes down with them. Yet, it hasn't been uncommon to find Treasury yields falling as the dollar's exchange value jumps. When that has happened, nothing good comes from it. We're starting to see what looks to be that scenario setting up right now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The ...
Jun 16, 2024•19 min•Ep. 804
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates I said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There is plenty of evidence the US is tilting in the direction of the HH Survey and unemployment rate. And that includes the rates market which ignored the F...
Jun 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 803
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates Walgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and that's the bad side of smaller price changes. Today's May CPI completely backs up everything we've been seeing. Eurodollar University's Money & Mac...
Jun 13, 2024•18 min•Ep. 802
Last week's ECB rate cut was...odd. Sure, officials had said for months they were going to do it. Yet, the conditions that would have to be met were not. Policymakers went ahead anyway and this past weekend's developments are a big Big Picture reason why. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Italy’s Tajani Calls for Quick Second ECB Cut After June Move https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/italy-s-tajani-calls-for-quick-second-ecb-cut-after-june-move The Time...
Jun 12, 2024•19 min•Ep. 801
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates Consumer credit has historically been a solid recession signal, particularly how consumers alter their usage of credit cards. Some of that by choice, for many it is the bank's. Either way, when this happens it is more compelling evidence backing the rise in the unemployment rate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Septe...
Jun 11, 2024•19 min•Ep. 800
Roaring Kitty is not the problem, nor is Gamestop the company and its stock. All are symptoms of a degraded model that increasingly rewards all the wrong behaviors. Stocks have become lottery tickets, the pie-in-the-sky way out for way too many Americans otherwise trapped in a real economy that continues to leave them behind - as the latest employment report proves. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Roaring Kitty Livestream 6/7/2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1prSyyIco...
Jun 10, 2024•19 min•Ep. 799
This has never happened before. Sure, the payroll data and CPS series have diverged before but this is something entirely new. The fact that it runs contrary to decades of history makes our determination rather easy and simple: the labor market noose is tightening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Big US Job Gains Is Out of Sync With Recent Weaker Economic Data https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-06-07/us-employment-report-for-may https://www.eurodollar.univ...
Jun 09, 2024•17 min•Ep. 798
After two years unequivocally stating "inflation" was the world's biggest threat and crisis, and that nothing short of full victory would suffice, now all of a sudden Europe (and Canada) is changing it up, cutting rates even as price estimates remain well short of their standard while also appearing to be stuck that way. What is really going on here? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB https://...
Jun 07, 2024•20 min•Ep. 797
More labor market cracks are showing and expanding. Even some of the data which has been resilient may have to be substantially changed given new information that just came to light. Labor weakness continues to clear out the FOMC setting the Treasury market up the next rally - though it isn't quite there yet. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ADP National Employment https://adpemploymentreport.com/ ADP Pay Insights https://payinsights.adp.com/?_ga=2.165121663.1500609015.17176019...
Jun 06, 2024•20 min•Ep. 796
As more weak data pours in on the US economy, the more clarity it offers on the future path of ST interest rates. As that clears up, market rates are moving lower. But why? Mainstream theory demands we consider rates as entirely supply or demand factors (like QE). Yet, the past couple years have thoroughly disproven the idea. Rates are going lower because that's where and what the fundamentals are. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Majority of Middle-Class Americans Sa...
Jun 05, 2024•19 min•Ep. 795
A rare warning strikes the gasoline market in another confirmation of economic weakness, one primary factor which forced OPEC this past weekend to extend its production restrictions. On top of those, big changes to US income estimates further corroborating the deterioration, as did a surprise drop in one of the more critical sentiment signals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Weak US gasoline demand compounds pressure on oil ahead of OPEC+ meet https://www.reuters.com/b...
Jun 04, 2024•19 min•Ep. 794
Weak economic results continue to roll in, matching other sources of information about the US economy. From the Federal Reserve's own account and data to more corporate reports. They all have one thing - and one word - in common. GDP revisions plus the first update on the state of GDI and its bigtime mismatch. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jun 03, 2024•19 min•Ep. 793
Tensions are rising. Aggressive actions are becoming commonplace. This isn't just sabre-rattling and posturing as war is a real possibility. It's not difficult to see why, at least what some of the motivation is. China's central bank is publicly discussing even more highly unusual steps to try to reign in the unfolding financial and economic backlash which was just confirmed by even more data. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg US Commander Warns China Is Fast Becoming ...
Jun 02, 2024•19 min•Ep. 792
More corporate mayhem brought on by the "uncertain market environment." Stocks of both Salesforce and Kohl's were hammered today as each company demonstrates in their own way just what the updated GDP numbers suggest. That latter data report also includes GDI which is almost certainly closer to the real economy all these other sources are projecting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Salesforce shares tumble 20%, on pace for worst day since 2004 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05...
May 31, 2024•18 min•Ep. 791
More CRE developments today and last week this time with a focus on Europe. New reports indicate losses are coming soon and data from the ECB shows why there are so many concerns. We also have the latest bank lending figures which show more troubling signs under the cover of 'extend and pretend.' Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Commercial real estate and financial stability – new insights from the euro area credit register https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stabilit...
May 30, 2024•18 min•Ep. 790
More data released today which shows the US economy has taken a turn for the worse. Consumers are running out of options and are turning in huge proportions to alternate means to stay afloat. One of those alternatives, however, is being closed off as the American banks are now actively cutting back risk while going on a buying binge for safety. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis nerdwallet 2024 State of Consumer Credit Report https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/credit-cards/2024-c...
May 29, 2024•18 min•Ep. 789
What's misinformation about the economy? It's a well-known fact policymakers and Economists outright lie about any situation. But why? They say it's for your own good. The lies are beginning to pile up so much that officials now have to lie about their lies, including the very theory behind all of this especially when some of the theoreticians who came up with it no longer want to be the very purveyors of misinformation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis George DeMartino Should ...
May 28, 2024•20 min•Ep. 788
