The world is starting to get the idea that rate hikes are not all they're cracked up to be. Yet, we're forced to focus endlessly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Why? The answer is really simple. More importantly, what's really going on in the economy? That answer is also pretty simple, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Jay Powell Jackson Hole August 2023 Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230825a....
Apr 21, 2024•19 min•Ep. 757
The Fed is all over the place, flip-flopping sometimes within a matter of weeks. They're confident about inflation then they're not. What's the real reason for so much back and forth, the obvious insecurity? It's the story no one really knows and what actually ties the current day with the past Great Inflation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CSPAN William Proxmire https://www.c-span.org/video/?322377-1/political-career-senator-william-proxmire https://www.c-span.org/video/?39...
Apr 19, 2024•18 min•Ep. 756
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Updates from the US housing and energy sectors heavily rebuff the idea reflation. There is supposed to be resurgent demand when new data shows the opposite, including a shocking crash in one critical segment. Not only do they contradict reflation, these also expose the CPI. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Rent.com The Rent Rep...
Apr 18, 2024•16 min•Ep. 755
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring UST yields are up somewhat sharply since early April, raising questions as to why that is. High on the public list of suspects is a government bond crisis for obvious Uncle Sam insanity reasons. Others point to possible reflation in higher yields. We do have a solid, historically validated answer for Treasuries, but it's written in German. Eurod...
Apr 17, 2024•18 min•Ep. 754
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Higher (slightly) interest rates and a couple rising commodities has brought back the reflation trade. For those to be valid, there would have to be widespread confirmation that a meaningful pickup in demand is brewing. Instead, there are huge holes including the most critical signal of them all. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysi...
Apr 16, 2024•19 min•Ep. 753
Is the Great Migration about to get worse? The answer starts in China where just the week the country already reported a sharp fall in consumer prices. CNY is down and so are government bond yields there. The Chinese also said the economy suffered a big drop in exports and then suffered a record low growth rate for lending. Banking woes, trade setbacks, further declines in growth and inflation expectations. The rest of the world is going to feel the effects. Eurodollar University's Money & M...
Apr 15, 2024•17 min•Ep. 752
The economy is doing just fine according to many statistics, but according to most people it is anything but. Those aren't just idle malcontents, either. A fundamental fact of the current state of the world is that it will have to reckon for that economic pain and substantial loss. Many now merely believe that worst is behind is, but what if it is still lying just ahead? Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre FRB Philadelphia Q4 2023 Insights Report https://www.philadelphiafed.o...
Apr 14, 2024•18 min•Ep. 751
Yesterday's US CPI reignited the fierce debate over a possibly sticky inflation future. China just ended it by reminding the world of its stubborn deflationary present with the third largest monthly CPI drop in the last twenty years. Producer prices also decline which is a solidly disinflationary signal for China and the world regardless of the latest consumer price numbers from elsewhere. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis China's NBS Consumer prices press release https://www.st...
Apr 12, 2024•18 min•Ep. 750
Another CPI comes in higher than expected. This isn't some harbinger of an impending price spiral, just the regular fluctuations in consumer prices driven largely by oil. It has stirred up inflation fears anyway in large part because it seems as if the CPI and especially the core rate is now stuck at a structurally higher rate. History cautions when making those assumptions. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnid...
Apr 11, 2024•19 min•Ep. 749
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Hawkish policymakers, oil prices, higher for longer all over the media. Why are banks, not just central banks, already cutting rates? Contrary to what you hear in the mainstream, policymakers aren't actually all that hawkish. More importantly, global markets are pricing more assertively for fragility not soft landing. Eurodollar University's Mon...
Apr 10, 2024•18 min•Ep. 748
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring What if gold and oil are actually trading on the same outcome? Despite popular misconceptions, a non-economic oil shock like the one we're currently experiencing is NOT inflationary. On the contrary, history shows it will almost certainly be disinflationary because of the negative impact it has on the economy. And if that impact is negative enou...
Apr 09, 2024•19 min•Ep. 747
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Oil is up sharply as fears over a wider conflict in the Middle East continue to rise. Quite predictably, this has raised widespread concerns over renewed "inflation." But we just did this six months ago and that example shows what we should expect today and going forward. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodol...
Apr 08, 2024•18 min•Ep. 746
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Yet another blowout payroll number from the government. Even though the BLS's "other" employment estimates managed a sharp rebound on the month, the difference between the two has become intolerable. How do we know which one might be closer to reality? We make a bunch of comparisons to see which way the weight of evidence falls. Also, every mont...
Apr 07, 2024•18 min•Ep. 745
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring China's currency trading was wild yesterday, CNY moving just a few pips above the PBOC's daily limit. But then, the country closed down for the rest of this week leaving the whole world hanging as to what might happen next. Will yuan breach the daily band for the first time ever? Might the central bank relent like it usually does? More important...
Apr 05, 2024•19 min•Ep. 744
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Monday's "strong" ISM manufacturing data sparked a whirlwind of inflation fear(mongering). Today's far more important and weak ISM non-manufacturing data barely took any notice. Why is that? The answer is obvious even though the latter series on services is far more important for the overall economy especially since these estimates for it are hi...
Apr 04, 2024•16 min•Ep. 743
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring To hear everyone tell it, bond yields are surging. Losses in the marketplace are "piling up" allegedly because hawkish central bankers will be fighting inflation a lot longer than previously hoped since the economy is so insatiably red hot. Except, none of that is true; starting with bond yields. And we can check our work, too, in a way that act...
Apr 03, 2024•18 min•Ep. 742
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE STILL GOING FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER, DETAILS AT THE LINK BELOW https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring Gold continues to soar, hitting almost as many record highs as stocks. And that's a problem because unlike stocks gold tends to be a useful indicator and warning sign. There are three theories as to what's behind the golden surge. Here we examine the evidence and consistency of all three. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Ch...
Apr 02, 2024•19 min•Ep. 741
It is critical to understand what is happening in China first of all. The country is suffering from a confluence of longer-term structural imbalances butting up against near-term strategies ostensibly aimed at minimizing the fallout. The risks are complex though in broad terms pretty easy to sketch out. They include potential impacts on global liquidity, one of the most misunderstood topics in finance. If are interested in Alf’s Macro Investment Fund, drop him an email for information at this ad...
Apr 01, 2024•21 min•Ep. 740
CHECK OUT EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S SPRING SALE https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-spring What is it with banks these days? Well, this time it may not be the bank themselves. According to the latest data from the ECB, European depositories are lending loads to non-banks over there. That's not a good sign and in this video you'll see why that is - and why it isn't just Europeans who should be seriously concerned. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Manual on MFI statist...
Mar 31, 2024•19 min•Ep. 739
We keep getting more and more recession confirmation. Soft data comes in ugly and is easily corroborated by hard estimates from a variety of sources. The only part missing is the layoffs. Where are they? Part of the answer comes from hoarding, though the more important piece is not what you might think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 29, 2024•21 min•Ep. 738
The Japanese are really getting bothered by weakness in the yen. But where is it coming from, and what might be done about it? Officials in Tokyo are threatening to intervene again, but a review of past interventions shows not just the folly of any attempt, better yet some useful clues about what's really happening here. It isn't Japan. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Japan Amps Up Intervention Threat as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...
Mar 28, 2024•18 min•Ep. 737
As more signs of instability pile up around the world but also coming from inside the US. Those are evidence for the continuing downside to the supply shock, the same cycle, not a soft landing. What are the key differences? Employing a few critical datapoints it's easy to see how much of a divergence there already has been and what that likely means for the upcoming period. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnide...
Mar 27, 2024•20 min•Ep. 736
Something just hit the US banking system. Tons of cash gone from their balance sheet seemingly as they reallocate their assets. At the same time this is going on, the dollar has surged against primarily Asian currencies rocking those countries and leading to several government backlashes. Are these all related? The answer appears to be, yes. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 26, 2024•19 min•Ep. 735
The bedrock assumption for a soft landing in the US is continued consumer spending. The economy around the world really needs Americans to keep spending at close to the same rate. Instead, more evidence is coming in that they are just out of gas. In addition to macro statistics, more retailers are confirming the downturn and no longer just those who sell to lower-income consumers. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Target Introduces New Brand, dealworthy, Featuring Low Prices...
Mar 25, 2024•19 min•Ep. 734
It isn't prospective rate cuts, the downward bias in market interest rates comes from real risks in the global system. The biggest of those are US commercial real estate (CRE) and China. Key developments in both show that the situation is fragile and that difficulties are serious even if playing out mainly in the shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Real Estate Pain Is Showing Up in an Obscure Investment Product https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/...
Mar 24, 2024•21 min•Ep. 733
Few were expecting anything more than a few franc sales from the Swiss National Bank today. Instead, the SNB boldly cut its ST rate specifically because it knows what's coming from around the rest of the world. And that doesn't mean inflation in Switzerland or anywhere else. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SNB Monetary Policy Assessment March 21, 2024 https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20240321 SNB Introductory remarks, news conferen...
Mar 22, 2024•19 min•Ep. 732
A wild FOMC meeting triggered by a rejiggering of the dots. Those don't really matter except as insight into how confused policymakers have become. Why are they confused? Rate hikes don't appear to be working, so they are having a hard time deciding what should happen next. Markets aren't so conflicted, only about the likeliest path for ST rates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC March 2024 Policy Statement https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary2024032...
Mar 21, 2024•19 min•Ep. 731
Well, they did it. The Bank of Japan ended its NIRP and YCC, raising its call money rate for the first time in forever. That's not the issue. Why they did it is open for debate, one that right now is taking place across markets. It's not going well for the rate-hikers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BoJ Statement March 19, 2024 https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k240319a.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Mar 20, 2024•20 min•Ep. 730
The Fed. Japanese destiny. Down Under. The Old Lady, Mexico, Brazil, and the Czech Republic. And those are just the start. A ton of central banks are going to be deliberating just this week. And while their policies don't really mean much to the economy, they can impact markets in the short run while also providing some somewhat useful clues about where the world really stands. Here's what to look for as it unfolds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.univer...
Mar 19, 2024•23 min•Ep. 729
The Fed shut down the BTFP, but just before it closed billions in loans were made to banks over the repeated objections of policymakers. Officials have been pushing depositories toward the Discount Window to the point even the FHLB system is dissuading its members from using its own advances as emergency liquidity. Yet, the last-minute BTFP indicates banks just aren't doing it with some substantial implications. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre FHFA FHLBank System at 100: F...
Mar 18, 2024•18 min•Ep. 728
