Federal Reserve economist Jeremy Rudd's paper savages the use of inflation expectations in monetary econometrics. He lambasts the profession for producing "minimal direct evidence" and the "next-to-no-examination of alternatives". A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Maverick " by Ooyy at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Asymmetry of Ineffective and Worthless QE: h...
Oct 27, 2021•21 min•Ep. 139
Time travel to the early 1970s where we hear the Nixon Tapes, read memorandums, and study Congressional testimony to understand what the Federal Reserve knew, and when they knew it. Turns out they didn't know "money" then and they still don't today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Amber Lights " by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Power of Money ...
Oct 26, 2021•21 min•Ep. 138
Arthur Schopenhauer, in the essay "The Wisdom of Life", favors individual strength of will and independent, reasoned deliberation over the tendency to act on irrational impulses. In the third chapter he contemplates "property, or what a man has". A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Arthur Schopenhauer, the German philosopher. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Amber Lights " by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Wisdom of ...
Oct 25, 2021•13 min•Ep. 137
PART 01: The 'debate' in the US Congress about the debt 'ceiling' prevented the US Treasury Dept. from issuing UST Bills, the ultimate risk-free asset. This put serious stress on the Chinese currency. Now, with the 'debate' tabled till December, Beijing (and the world) are safe... for now. PART 02: The US Treasury yield curve IS NOT inverted and, therefore, is not signaling a recession warning. But IT IS warning that the Federal Reserve's reasoning to "taper" its quantitative easing program (i.e...
Oct 24, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 136
Kratom is a legal stimulant but MasterCard and Visa refuse to process payments by kratom vendors. How do vendors work around this embargo? And should these two network oligopolies be allowed to decide which licit products they deal with? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- John Paul Koning believes thinking about money is more interesting than making money. He writes about monetary economics, economic history, finance, and fintech at his his Moneyness blog as well as for the S...
Oct 23, 2021•15 min•Ep. 135
Maroon Macro has become cautiously optimistic about Decentralized Finance's (DeFi) potential to disrupt the traditional financial system. DeFi is extraordinarily elegant in the way in which it reenables elasticity in the machinery of exchange. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Maroon Macro , an anonymous global macro hedge fund analyst who is partial to the University of Chicago and writes about the mechanics of the monetary system, financial plumbing, and economic history. ...
Oct 22, 2021•20 min•Ep. 134
Beijing knows it wants to discontinue the country’s existing, unsustainable growth model. The latest "Common Prosperity" policy will only shift domestic demand at the margins; a full-fledged rebalancing will require a more radical transformation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Michael Pettis , Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, specializes in Chinese financial markets, economic history, global capital flows and the relati...
Oct 21, 2021•18 min•Ep. 133
We tend to talk about infrastructure in terms of spending amounts. But infrastructure in a monopoly-dominated economy is not just about money, it's about who governs - monopolists, or the public? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Matt Stoller is a fellow at the Open Markets Institute and advises policymakers on the problem of monopoly. He has lectured on competition policy around the world and his writing has appeared in various news media and publications. In 2019 he author...
Oct 20, 2021•25 min•Ep. 132
AnalystDC looks back at how the US money market has evolved in 2021 so far by reviewing the Fed's balance sheet and considering where things could go from here for the Fed, large and small US banks as well as foreign bank offices. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- AnalystDC , the anonymous enjoyer of illiquid credit, bond posting and money markets. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Amber Lights " by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT...
Oct 19, 2021•27 min•Ep. 131
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, Typically the show notes are loaded with information about the show, reference material and acknowledgement of the people that helped make the show. Unfortunately Episode 129 was damned by the Universe and came to us straight from Hades, Ring Four, Pit 03 (on the left). Thankfully all the content is there. But everything else, everything else that it takes to make the show was cursed by Podcast Deus. Everything went wrong, not just for me but for everyone involved with...
Oct 18, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 129
Freedom, Truth, and Love: three creative principles distinguished by uninhibited exchange. Is it any coincidence that voluntary exchange is essential to all three? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Robert Breedlove , freedom maximalist. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Amber Lights " by Chill Cole at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Freedom, Truth, and Love: https://bit.ly/3janbXL ----------WHERE---------- Robert's Substack: https://b...
Oct 18, 2021•14 min•Ep. 130
Bank balance sheets are expanding in 2021, which is great news if you believe credit is modern money. But a closer look reveals banks are PILING into the SAFEST assets while beating a RETREAT from loans (real economy money). We haven't seen this in three generations. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The...
Oct 16, 2021•24 min•Ep. 128
Money, a necessary evil seems to be best compliment one can pay it. Starr argues that money, in a world of constraints and choices, helps identify price. And for all the kind words written about "value" let us consider the importance of "price" and spare a kind word about money. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Roger Starr (1918-2001), editorial writer for the New York Times, military intelligence officer, New York City housing administrator. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art b...
Oct 15, 2021•15 min•Ep. 127
Oil prices are intentionally offered as Inflation Exhibit A, even though at best it is a lagging indicator. In 2008, 2011 and 2018 we saw metal prices turn south while oil kept heading north; oil incorrectly interpreting the economic setting each time. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Chip Shortages, Cr...
Oct 14, 2021•14 min•Ep. 126
The Fed and Treasury have seen enough debt ceilings to develop a playbook that can be pieced together from past FOMC transcripts and Congressional subpoenas. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Joseph Wang spent five years as the senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Debt Ceiling Procedures: https://bit.ly/3jfTCnZ ---...
Oct 13, 2021•12 min•Ep. 125
George Friedman observes that China is embarking on a difficult socioeconomic transition. Paradoxically, the transition will cause observers to underrate the country's strength, in much the same manner as they presently overrate the nation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- China’s Economic Crisis a...
Oct 12, 2021•11 min•Ep. 124
AnalystDC considers three developments in late-July 2021 that'll affect money markets for years to come: the Fed's Standing Repo Facility, the Group of Thirty recommendations and the Alternative Reference Rates Committte recommendations. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- AnalystDC , the anonymous enjoyer of illiquid credit, bond posting and money markets. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ---------...
Oct 11, 2021•22 min•Ep. 123
PART 01: The US dollar is rising in value against a collection of currencies (except one). It's disconfirming evidence of sustainable economic recovery; it implies strained USD-funding. And there's still that one key, stable currency - unusually stable; suspiciously stable. PART 02: We review palladium, copper and iron ore - all metals and minerals that peaked in value in May (lumber too). Some commodities continue to rise in value, specifically energy. How do we reconcile the deflationary/disin...
Oct 11, 2021•1 hr 22 min•Ep. 122
An increased risk-off sentiment, resulting from the Evergrande drama - among several other factors, has perhaps increased the likelihood, as well as accelerated the timeline, of a CNY devaluation. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Maroon Macro , an anonymous global macro hedge fund analyst who is partial to the University of Chicago and writes about the mechanics of the monetary system, financial plumbing, and economic history. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins ...
Oct 09, 2021•28 min•Ep. 121
An unprecedent increase in household wealth from housing, stocks and cryptocurrencies may have structurally changed the US labor market. The Fed, assuming no structural change, may be running the economy much hotter than they realize. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Joseph Wang spent five years as the senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound....
Oct 08, 2021•10 min•Ep. 120
The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster than Beijing expected, putting pressure on regulators to move quickly to stop the contagion. But they cannot rescue Evergrande’s creditors without also undermining their fight against bad debt. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Michael Pettis , Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines ...
Oct 07, 2021•27 min•Ep. 119
Jay Powell’s Fed portrays the economy in recovery mode and intends to taper monetary accommodation - yet the US dollar has been rising in value for months. Premature celebration? It reminds Jeff Snider of an episode in 2011 when the FOMC guffawed past the monetary graveyard. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT------...
Oct 06, 2021•19 min•Ep. 118
Recent polling data from Alignable reveals a difficult small-business environment. Three regional Fed surveys confirm the softness. Is it merely the passing Delta-Covid? Or the labor-shortage? Will demand in 2022 be able to meet the oncoming wave of goods orders? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Deadlines " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Revisit...
Oct 05, 2021•11 min•Ep. 117
Like the bond market and the yield curve, the inventory situation is most often forward-looking. Powell is tapering and ignoring the potential of an inventory overhang, pretty much the same way as a few years ago. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Revisiting The Last Overhang: https://bit.ly/3isH5Nk ----------WHERE...
Oct 04, 2021•14 min•Ep. 116
PART 01: US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—'every' August. But why? PART 02: Since 2011, the US Treasury 10-year bond peaks in value during the summer-to-autumn transition. Ignoring the economic context, whether positive or negative, bonds lose value. They lose value whether central banks are hawkish or do...
Oct 03, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 115
The bezzle is the temporary gap between the perceived value of assets and long-term economic value. Economies at times systematically create bezzle, unleashing substantial economic consequences that economists have rarely understood or discussed. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Michael Pettis , Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic S...
Oct 02, 2021•39 min•Ep. 114
The Bank for International Settlements summarizes the rise and fall of the offshore eurodollar system. Offshore banking, regulatory arbitrage, financial liberalization and financial innovation created the system, which expanded exponentially--at least until 2007. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Robert McCauley , Patrick McGuire and Philip Wooldridge of the Bank for International Settlements. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii ...
Oct 01, 2021•32 min•Ep. 113
Lyn Alden's August newsletter focuses on the ongoing supply chain issues, inflation, and commodities. In many ways, the 2020s decade continues to mirror the 1940s in terms of fiscal policy, monetary policy, and de-globalization. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Supply Chain Woes: https://bit.ly/2XRMCpi ---...
Sep 30, 2021•26 min•Ep. 112
Jeff Snider presents history's great monetary shortages -- the 14th century's Great Bullion Famine, the 20th century's Triffin's Paradox, the 21st century's Eurodollar Famine -- and how human innovation -- ghost money, eurodollar, cryptocurrency -- overcame monetary adversity. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Rebe...
Sep 29, 2021•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 111
Jeff Snider reviews the recent Bank of Japan experience with quantitative and qualitative easing. The central bank starts off on the wrong foot, focusing on credit quality issues instead of market participants' liquidity preferences and it goes sideways from there. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " 36mm " by Jobii at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Central Bankers ...
Sep 28, 2021•23 min•Ep. 110
