Fertilizer is a critical input to global food production but circumstances have conspired to throw a spanner into the food supply chain works. The supply and demand imbalances have caused a spike in fertilizer prices and, consequently, raised the costs of producing food. Who will pay for these increases? Farmers? Consumers? Is a period of food insecurity ahead? How long might it last? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Allison Fedirka of Geopolitical Futures . Read by Emil Ka...
Nov 29, 2021•15 min•Ep. 169
PART 01: Jay Powell has been nominated by President Biden to serve another term as the Federal Reserve chair. Though his nomination has not even been heard by the US Congress, another group of people has already passed judgement on the second term: the bond market (and they say it'll be a failure!). PART 02: The Federal Reserve, and other central banks, buy tremendous amounts of government securities and this should impact bond prices. Should, but doesn't. That's because there's an even more pow...
Nov 28, 2021•59 min•Ep. 168
The Bank for International Settlements observes that bottlenecks in the supply of commodities, intermediate goods and freight transport have given rise to volatile prices and delivery delays. These disruptions have been particularly severe in upstream industries and have led to large international spillovers through global value chains. On the one hand, the inflationary effect of bottlenecks will likely be limited after relative prices have adjusted. But sustained pressures could emerge if bottl...
Nov 25, 2021•26 min•Ep. 167
We are now in a giant parking lot game that threatens the global economy. Thank deregulation and the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 1998. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Matt Stoller is a fellow at the Open Markets Institute and advises policymakers on the problem of monopoly. He has lectured on competition policy around the world and his writing has appeared in various news media and publications. In 2019 he authored Goliath: The 100-Year War Between Monopoly Power and Demo...
Nov 24, 2021•34 min•Ep. 166
Silver's decade ahead maybe a perfect storm of demand for government-mandated green investment and of inflation by government-enforced financial repression. Move over 'gold bugs', silver fever is coming. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- The Singapore Bullion Market Association , represents bullion banks, exchanges, refineries, merchants and logistics companies. The SBMA now plays a pivotal role in the development of Singapore as one of the most global centres of connectivit...
Nov 23, 2021•19 min•Ep. 165
PART 01: America's September 2021 Treasury International Capital data corroborates dis/deflationary indications observed across various sources, the vast majority of which imply there's not enough money, and/or it's inadequately distributed, for the global economy to achieve permanent recovery. PART 02: Beijing reconfirmed what was made clear in 2017, during the 19th National Party Congress: the economic boom was over and it is time to prepare for it. If anyone in the West would care to listen, ...
Nov 22, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 164
In 1896 a great political battle erupted over monetary policy in the United States. That battle and its lessons are relevant today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Adam Tooze , economist, author and historian. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Chartbook #44: The Cross of Gold - populism, democratic iterations and the politics of money: https://bit.ly/3otXhQx ----------WHERE--------...
Nov 21, 2021•34 min•Ep. 163
China's imports of iron value is soaring, which signals a booming economy. A closer look reveals that it is iron prices which are soaring but volume - the real stuff, the real goods - is falling. What does that signal? That the world has fallen for an "booming economy" illusion. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- T...
Nov 20, 2021•13 min•Ep. 162
Trade appears to be booming in Germany and China, but a closer look reveals that the gains are concentrated in "price" and when we isolate "volume" of goods traded an entirely different, and ugly-ugly-ugly picture emerges. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Global Trade and Global Prices, China and Germany’s ‘Growt...
Nov 19, 2021•15 min•Ep. 161
Author, reformed lawyer, economic historian and your man from Belfast, Russell Napier, explains why the 1995-98 Asian Financial Crisis set the stage for the Age of Debt (1999-2020) and the coming Era of Financial Repression (2021-??). ----RUSSELL NAPIER BIOGRAPHY--- Russell is chairman of the Mid Wynd International Investment Trust a closed end investment vehicle listed on the London Stock Exchange. He is a member of the investment advisory committees of three fund management companies, Cerno Ca...
Nov 18, 2021•51 min•Ep. 160
An interview with Professor Samuel Williamson, economic historian and co-founder of MeasuringWorth.com, discusses gas prices in 2021 and whether they are high, or low, relative to history in terms of consumer prices and labor hours. --------REFERENCES-------- Measuring Worth: https://bit.ly/36TfZZD Measuring Worth Twitter: https://bit.ly/3BuZotf Measuring Worth Blog: https://bit.ly/3rqyz4R -----HEAR EPISODE 159---- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit...
Nov 17, 2021•41 min•Ep. 159
It is difficult to define what money is because the term money can refer to different things in different contexts. Money is not just a thing or unit of measurement but an ecosystem, a layer of social infrastructure, a language - and a source of power. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Rohan Grey , assistant professor at Willamette University College of Law, where he teaches contracts, business associations and securities regulation. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Pa...
Nov 16, 2021•22 min•Ep. 158
PART 01: Around the world data shows consumer prices are accelerating like we haven't seen in years, even decades. Why? Is it because politicians are wantonly giving away money? Are gluttonous central bankers printing cash? Is it a supply/demand imbalance? Is this the 1970s Great Inflation? PART 02: The "landmine" has been part of each of the four global/regional dollar squeezes of the past 14 years (2007-09, 2011-12, 2014-16, 2018-20). The "landmine" is when US Treasury Bond yields decline prec...
Nov 15, 2021•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 157
China has cross three red lines - what are they? Inflation is roaring red hot - why and will it last? Next year is shaping up as a prime candidate for Recession 2022 - who believes that? ----------WHO---------- Bilal Hafeez is the Founder and CEO of Macro Hive – a leading independent research firm. Prior to Macro Hive, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura between 2016 and 2019. Before that Bilal held various senior roles at Deutsche Bank between 2002 and 2015 in...
Nov 13, 2021•48 min•Ep. 156
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits in the United States eliminated eight million income streams in September 2021. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Wile E. Powell Inflation: Are We Really Just Going To Ignore The Cliff?: https://bit.ly/3H68ejJ ----------WHERE---------- Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit...
Nov 12, 2021•8 min•Ep. 155
Does rapid central bank money creation resulting from large-scale purchases of government securities fuel inflation? A review of the experience in Britain, Europe and Japan. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Gianluca Benigno, assistant vice president and head of international research in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group with Paolo Pesenti, senior vice president and policy lead on monetary policy in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group....
Nov 11, 2021•23 min•Ep. 154
From Book I (Productive Powers Of Labour), Chapter V (Of The Real And Nominal Price Of Commodities, Or Of Their Price In Labour, And Their Price In Money). A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Adam Smith , the Scottish economist, philosopher, pioneer of political economy and a key figure of the Scottish Enlightenment. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- An Inquiry into the Nature and Caus...
Nov 10, 2021•13 min•Ep. 153
From Being & Nothingness, Part Four (Having, Doing and Being), Chapter Two (Doing and Having), Part II ("Doing" and "Having" Possession). A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jean-Paul Charles Aymard Sartre , the French philosopher, playwright, novelist, screenwriter, political activist, biographer and literary critic. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Being and Nothingness: An Essa...
Nov 09, 2021•9 min•Ep. 152
The past two decades have seen the construction of a tiered system of international liquidity provision, the first tier including those whose credit is sufficient for a swap line, the second tier including those who can offer acceptable collateral, and the third tier including everyone else. It is a global dollar system, with the Fed operating de facto as the global central bank providing international lender of last resort support to the system. It is a system created not so much by conscious d...
Nov 08, 2021•40 min•Ep. 151
PART 01: An early-1950s US consumer buying-binge sent the Consumer Price Index soaring. Inflation!? No. It was a transitory supply/demand imbalance brought on by (geo)political factors. The bond market knew it and didn't overreact. And what about the Federal Reserve? They overreacted. PART 02: We review the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 2000s and 2010s to study how bond yields reacted to persistent and pervasive monetary expansion, stagnation and contraction as well as how bond markets handled transitory...
Nov 07, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 150
Lyn Alden's October newsletter focuses on value stocks compared to growth stocks and makes an argument for at least a mild resurgence of value performance. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- A Resurgence in Value: https://bit.ly/3Cy3QHC ----------WHERE---------- Lyn's Website: https://www.lynalden.com/ Lyn's...
Nov 06, 2021•26 min•Ep. 149
George Friedman begins to look ahead at ideas and geographies that will and will not matter in the year 2022: Covid, China, Russia, Europe, the Middle East, the United States and even the Caribbean. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Forecasting Time: https://bit.ly/3pNMxPf ----------WHERE---------- George Fri...
Nov 05, 2021•11 min•Ep. 148
The September 2021 reading for America's new orders of durable goods shows stagnation / stalling. It is likely much worse but we won't know it for several years, not until the benchmark revisions are performed. We've seen this before, in 2018. And 2014. And 2012. Don't be surprised this time. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WH...
Nov 04, 2021•15 min•Ep. 147
The United States' third quarter is in the books - how did the economy do? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- GDP Red Flag: https://bit.ly/2ZIBbBD ----------WHERE---------- Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW Jeff's RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Jeff's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSni...
Nov 03, 2021•9 min•Ep. 146
How can anyone say there’s a dollar shortage and dramatically rising deflationary potential right now? Easy, actually. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Short Run TIPS, LT Flat, Basically Awful Real(ity): https://bit.ly/3bu4Y38 ----------WHERE---------- Jeff's Alhambra Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW Jeff's RealClear...
Nov 02, 2021•10 min•Ep. 145
In September the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States met to discuss, among other things, how to counter-balance the growing power of China in the Indo-Pacific. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Velina Tchakarova is Director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy in Vienna. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- The Quad Summit amid the Bifurcation ...
Nov 01, 2021•14 min•Ep. 144
Mastercard is compelling adult content providers to know their customer... and their content. If not, access will be withheld to payment processing. But Mastercard is an oligopolist, its censorship affects everyone. Is that proper? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- John Paul Koning believes thinking about money is more interesting than making money. He writes about monetary economics, economic history, finance, and fintech at his his Moneyness blog as well as for the Sound M...
Oct 31, 2021•14 min•Ep. 143
Medieval Europeans put animals on trial for various misdemeanors and felonies: murderous pigs sent to the gallows, sparrows prosecuted for chattering in church, a gang of thieving rats let off on a wholly technical acquittal. It was an act of rebellion against Chaos, an attempt to restrain the capricious Universe under human order. Is modern society more sophisticated? Or do we too attempt to assign order to Chaos when we mislabel it as "conspiracy" or "(in)competence"? A reading, by Emil Kalino...
Oct 30, 2021•20 min•Ep. 142
There is a goods shortage on the store shelf, yes. But that does not mean there is a goods shortage - instead it is a warehousing and logistics problem. In fact, we may be facing a surplus of goods that's about to wash over the economy. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- What *Seems* Inflation Now Is Something Else...
Oct 29, 2021•13 min•Ep. 141
The US Treasury bond market has been correctly anticipating inflation, disinflation, deflation as well as transitory, non-money-related increases in consumer prices for decades. Decades. Maybe we should listen to them? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Lepiten Falls " by Ooyy at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Do Bonds Accurately Price Inflation? Since Before Any o...
Oct 28, 2021•18 min•Ep. 140
