The Fed's expected taper is just empty, insignificant theater. The Fed is tapering never once having answered for headwinds, false dawns, and the world’s true wealth repeatedly suffering under stagnation and decline. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Previewing The Taper Theater: https://bit.ly/3CEBQ4N...
Sep 27, 2021•16 min•Ep. 109
PART 1: Offshore shadow money funds the global economy, but it lies in the shadows; it's off-balance sheet and off-the-regulatory-radar. A good place to get a sense of offshore shadow money is the Treasury International Capital report. Jeff Snider serves as our guide through July's data - and warnings. PART 2: Interest rate swap spreads are negative. These 'underwater' derivatives indicate very high market demand relative to money dealer supply. So, if bank balance sheet capacity remains constra...
Sep 26, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 108
Karl Marx, the 19th-century German philosopher, economist, historian, sociologist, political theorist, journalist and socialist revolutionary, on the confounding and inverting nature of money and wealth. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Karl Marx. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Economic & Philosophic Manuscripts of 1844: https://bit.ly/2XG9I2c ----------WHERE-----...
Sep 26, 2021•10 min•Ep. 107
Financial historian Daniel Oliver's essay on real rates, the profligacy of the Federal Reserve, inflation and the path of nominal gold prices. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Real Rates Go More Negative: https://bit.ly/3EG5ada ----------WHERE---------- Myrmikan: http://myrmikan.com/ Daniel Oliver: htt...
Sep 25, 2021•17 min•Ep. 106
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman asks, 'Why has the United States, the most powerful state (since the Roman Empire) lost three wars in the past 50 years?' A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. -------HEADS UP------- In October Geopolitical Futures will do a special series on Geopolitics and Economics. George Friedman and special guests as we dig into the socio-economics of international conflict, the relationship between a nation’s economics, military, and political aspects, and te...
Sep 24, 2021•14 min•Ep. 105
A review of August's Treasury International Capital data. The chief benefit is, unlike most who don’t know or can’t read the data, which is pretty much everyone, you at least know in which direction to start looking. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- PracTICal Remainders and Reminders: https://bit.ly/3...
Sep 23, 2021•13 min•Ep. 104
The mainstream media is asking if China's property developer imminent demise will be the "Lehman" moment. Unlikely. It's more likely this will be yet another Chinese Bear Stearns. The first? Shanghai Chaori Solar. In 2013. This is no new development catching authorities offguard. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHA...
Sep 22, 2021•17 min•Ep. 103
Central bankers had a choice in the 1970s: follow the offshore money, diving headfirst down the rabbit hole; or, ignore it entirely, pretend none of this exists, and then hope by stroke of luck it won’t matter. We’re still paying for the ignorance and dereliction. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Doll...
Sep 21, 2021•16 min•Ep. 102
It’s becoming too obvious to keep overlooking Keynes' statement when little credit-collateral-money, "is...available our wealth suffers stagnation or decline.” The problem is hardly anyone knows what just why there might be so little. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Born in the 90's " by Ameryh at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- They're Ignoring That There's Too ...
Sep 20, 2021•21 min•Ep. 101
PART 01: Producer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They're elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls - all TRANSITORY factors. Producer prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action. PART 02: Consumer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They're elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls - all TRANSITORY factors. Consumer prices ARE NOT elevated because of p...
Sep 19, 2021•1 hr 8 min•Ep. 100
PART 1: 'Maybe the economy isn't in as good a condition as you economists / academics / technocrats think it is,' says the labor force participation rate. 'The economy is in fantastic shape,' says the unemployment rate. Which one is correct? PART 2: Labor shortages are normal, at the microscale, from time to time, in this or that industry. Yet since 2008, establishment economists use "labor shortage" as an excuse to: A) support a misleadingly low unemployment rate and, B) explain away the partic...
Sep 13, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 99
PART 01: A lousy labor market report for August is being blamed on a "labor shortage". Also, 'lazy Americans' and 'the delta'. But the real problem is that businesses will not pay a market-clearing wage to hire the workers they need. Why not? Because the economy is lousy. PART 02: A long-standing NBC News Survey shows John & Jane Q. Public perceive the economy's condition BETTER than economists who anchor to the unemployment rate. Since 2005, US citizens have sensed each global dollar squeez...
Sep 05, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 98
Jay Powell announced his central bank is satisfied (enough) with the economy's direction. Thus, the Fed will soon be 'tapering'; lessening the 'monetary stimulus'. What did bond-money markets say? Did they have a tantrum? No, because they don't believe what Jay believes. -----SEE EPISODE 97------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL -----HEAR EPISODE 97----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHea...
Aug 30, 2021•50 min•Ep. 97
PART 01: What did the Federal Reserve think about gold and the Nixon Shock in 1971? According to the transcripts they didn't think much about gold, neither pre- nor post-announcement. The Fed did not see the move as a release from its 'golden fetters' so as to dominate the monetary order. PART 02: The US Treasury Department released their Treasury International Capital, one of the keyholes analysts can look through to get a sense what is happening in the eurodollar system. Jeff Snider explains t...
Aug 22, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 96
PART 01 : Inflation is a broad, sustained monetary phenomenon. Price deviations in a narrow set of economic sectors, though they last months, are just that: price deviations. Today's high CPI-readings will in all likelihood subsumed by the global monetary disorder, like in 2008 and 2011. PART 02 : A review of July's HUGE increase in consumer prices. We conclude these price surges are due to supply problems, base comparison effects and mostly Uncle Sam stimmy checks. None of which are permanent c...
Aug 16, 2021•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 95
PART 01: Fifty years ago the "Nixon Shock" closed the 'Gold Window' on "international speculators" and killed the Bretton Woods gold exchange era. That's what we're told. Actually, Bretton Woods died a decade (or more!) earlier; it's just that we only noticed in 1971. PART 02: The IMF will 'print' $650 billion -- BILLION! -- in SDR-money to help with global liquidity. BIG numbers! BIG Deal! But we've heard this before from the IMF, like in 2009, their last BIGGEST EVER allocation, which was as e...
Aug 08, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 94
PART 01: Gold Slams! Rapid, huge sales in early morning hours are warnings about a malfunction deep within the plumbing of global capital flows. They're also multi-week, precipitous price declines. We review the last few months of gold price to triangulate if the pipes are rattling warnings. PART 02: Foreigners were heavily selling US Treasuries in May 2021. Is this a GEOPOLITICAL plot? Is America's BANKRUPTCY imminent?!? Almost certainly not. We review the LONG HISTORY of foreigners selling US ...
Aug 02, 2021•1 hr 29 min•Ep. 93
FRONTLINE critiques the Fed for showering big banks, big business and Wall Street with easy money, which reached neither the real economy nor the vast majority of Americans. Yes to the latter, but no-no-no-no to the former. ----SEE EPISODE 92----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR EPISODE 92---- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2...
Jul 26, 2021•1 hr 36 min•Ep. 92
Early-morning action in the repo market shows a musical chairs-like collateral scramble; it has the Fed's attention. But the Fed is blasé about it (i.e. 'too much cash'). Yet these collateral scrambles resemble what we saw in March 2020. ----SEE EPISODE #91---- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR EPISODE #91--- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http...
Jul 25, 2021•30 min•Ep. 91
Professor Sam Williamson, economic historian, explains how the value of commodities, projects and income/wealth should be properly measured across time (AND IT IS NOT WITH A CPI INDEX!). Otherwise, like a recent NY Times article, your worth may be off by a factor of 20!!!! --------EP. 90 REFERENCES-------- Measuring Worth: https://bit.ly/36TfZZD Measuring Worth Twitter: https://bit.ly/3BuZotf Measuring Worth Blog: https://bit.ly/3rqyz4R NY Times Tulsa Article: https://nyti.ms/3eKKDIR National Ge...
Jul 22, 2021•58 min•Ep. 90
PART 01: Jay Powell has confirmed a surging Fed program (RRP) is partly the result of safe-asset demand. But he plays it off as a monetary technicality, mere arcana. Nope! Safe-asset scarcity is step one along a well-trod path towards a malfunctioning economy. Here's what happens next. PART 02: The People's Bank of China lowers its bank Required Reserve Ratio to get money into a slowing economy. A lowered RRR means that there aren't enough (euro)dollars flowing into China. Why? Because there are...
Jul 19, 2021•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 89
PART 01: When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a warning that recession is on the horizon. What about when the Eurodollar Futures yield curve rolls over on its back? Not good news either. Would you believe that there's a kink in the curve now? Would you believe it's not great news? PART 02: The yields on German sovereign bonds began to tumble in May - now we know why. German Factory Orders and Industrial Production delivered lousy results that month. Germany is an export power so these ...
Jul 12, 2021•1 hr 11 min•Ep. 88
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on the the 'big news' about the 'hawkish' new Fed forecast implying economic recovery championed by the business press while at the same time an underlying liquidity reading (RRP) glows orange. A warning. And a reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Strolling with You " by John Runefelt at Epidemic Sound . ----------WHAT-...
Jul 02, 2021•22 min•Ep. 87
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on yet another central bank study concluding that there are TANGIBLE problems with quantitative easing and what benefits can be observed are INTANGIBLE. Sweden's Riksbank observes collateral shortages. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Steak Frites " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound . ----------WHAT---------- Becau...
Jun 30, 2021•21 min•Ep. 86
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on why inflation is unwelcome directly and welcome indirectly. Also, economic depression and hopelessness have struck the United States many times. A review of contemporary accounts of despair and hope about the future from the 19th and 20th centuries. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Nocturnal Jam " by Sarah, the...
Jun 28, 2021•21 min•Ep. 85
PART 01: After the Federal Reserve raised the return on one of its bank programs, a record $756 billion flowed into the central bank’s reverse repo facility. Jerome Powel said, "We're not concerned." He should be. Like the Fed should've been in 2017 when something similar happened. A warning. Again. PART 02: How is it possible 14 years of data shows the Federal Reserve FLAILING ABOUT trying to raise or lower bond yields with MASSIVE purchases of securities via quantitative easing? Because they w...
Jun 23, 2021•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 84
Daniel Want, the early-21st century Australian philosopher and Chief Investment Officer of Prerequisite Capital, discusses: absence of knowledge at educational institutions, transitory inflation, first principles, disconnected markets, justice as prerequisite and the unified magnitude of the crisis. --------REFERENCES-------- Prerequisite Capital: https://bit.ly/3gjMvd7 Training Videos: https://bit.ly/3czM4sM Daniel LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3gt3Rmq Daniel Twitter: https://bit.ly/3gsH0r3 Daniel G...
Jun 18, 2021•1 hr 25 min•Ep. 83
PART 01: What should a central bank be? What does one do? Is what the Fed does 'central banking'? What did Ben Bernanke promise in 2002 that the Fed would never do again -- learning the lesson of the 1930s -- and how did he break his promise less than 5 years later? PART 02: In March 2020 long-term US Treasury yields shot higher - why? Aren't these safe assets? Did the 'Treasury market break'? No. Yields shot higher due to illiquidity. And liquidity is JOB #1 of a central bank. So... here's look...
Jun 16, 2021•54 min•Ep. 82
PART 01: A new measure of the monetary order will be unveiled at the end of this two-part episode. But first, a discussion of uncertainty, incomplete pictures, relativity, perspective and the limits of human knowledge. Also, bank reserves and repurchase agreements. PART 02: Within the US Triparty Repo environment, utilizing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, we observe that three dollar shortages between 2010-20 appeared as a stagnation and/or contraction in observations per repurch...
Jun 07, 2021•46 min•Ep. 81
Historian and political economist Daniel Oliver's commentary on why the quantity of currency is less important than the quality of the collateral backing it. In the USA the quality of the Federal Reserve's assets suggests two options remain: searing hyperinflation or wrenching austerity. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is " Glitterati " by Fox Morrow at Epidemic Sound . ----------...
Jun 04, 2021•21 min•Ep. 80
