The Federal Reserve reported a sharp rise in delinquencies, especially credit cards and auto loans. That wasn't all, as the New York branches also showed record high rejections strongly indicating where things really stand in the credit cycle. As a result, we have to pay some attention to CRTs, otherwise known as SRTs, the latest financial engineering akin to the 2020s version of credit default swaps. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRBNY Household Debt and Credit Report Q3 20...
Nov 19, 2024•20 min•Ep. 938
Another retailer finds out the 2021 "recovery" was mostly an illusion. Prices may have soared and revenues looking good, it didn't last because it couldn't. As the company closes hundreds of stores and prepares to lay off an unknown number of workers, more stats show this is no isolated case. The cycle continues and continues to take its toll on businesses and workers alike. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Nov 18, 2024•19 min•Ep. 937
The yen and the euro are good currency indicators of global monetary conditions, but there are a couple even better and more consistent signals. When the 'dollar' goes up and these two are taking the hit because of it, that's when you really need to pay attention. It's not Trump, Jay Powell, interest rates or just random chance. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Nov 17, 2024•19 min•Ep. 936
The dollar index jumped to a more than two-year high leaving everyone to ask why. Some say Trump, others the Fed. They might as well have said it was Burger King (who blames Wendy's). Though the dollar is rising here in the short run, to really understand what's going on you have to consider more than just developments in November 2024. This has been in the works for several years. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters US dollar continues uptrend as Fed policy provides lift ...
Nov 15, 2024•18 min•Ep. 935
After Germany's governing coalition collapsed last week, the country's ZEW added more solid evidence about why that was. The ZEW also collapsed into November. That's not just about Germany since the "zoo" is really what the rest of the world looks like from the German perspective. That also has a lot to say about the ongoing Treasury selloff (just like April). Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ZEW November 2024 https://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/falling-economic-e...
Nov 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 934
The economic challenges the incoming Trump administration is facing are far and away greater than those confronted in 2016. From the cyclical standpoint, 2024 has far more in common with 2001. While structurally, there's nothing close to this in generations. Amidst the election euphoria there needs to be sober analysis. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Nov 13, 2024•35 min•Ep. 933
Repo fails jumped by 50% in the latest weekly data, which just so happens to be the same week swap spreads plunged to record lows. It was also when the US economy, at least its labor data, took a turn for the worse. Understanding the connections between all these money and macro indications is critical. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Financial Times New York Fed examines banks’ role in money market turmoil https://www.ft.com/content/83a5bb70-dbca-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17 FOMC C...
Nov 12, 2024•20 min•Ep. 932
Credit card usage isn't really about spending. Americans use their credit cards when they're confident about jobs and incomes. The latest data from the Fed contains a more serious warning especially how it lines up with jobs and income data...and the Fed's actions. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Nov 11, 2024•19 min•Ep. 931
Is there era of massive government "stimulus" finally over? Bonds are certain it is. The Chinese are doing their best to make sure that's the result, in large part because they don't know what to do. That much is becoming clear and the implications are already going global. Just ask anyone with oil. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trump https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-08/china-unveils-839-billi...
Nov 10, 2024•19 min•Ep. 930
Germany's government is the latest casualty of the "vibecession." Amid a flurry of political activity, the markets throw up another major warning with the first ever negative swap spread. Predictably, the mainstream media can't make sense of swaps, the situation, or the economics. It's the economy, stupid. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Germany’s Government Puts Itself Out of Its Misery https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-07/germany-s-coalition-govern...
Nov 08, 2024•18 min•Ep. 929
Huge moves, major negatives, and record declines for one of the most critical pieces of the entire global system. While election euphoria has gripped certain financial markets, this one is doing the opposite. It is a key warning about where everything stands before even considering whether or not Trump's victory changes anything. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Nov 07, 2024•20 min•Ep. 928
Demand for gasoil, the basic fuel which runs the entire modern world, is actually declining. Having stumbled over the summer, this exceptionally rare development is another really negative sign to go with, relatedly, even more production and job cuts across the auto industry. Energy, autos, economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Diesel Set For Growing Glut as Demand Falters https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/diesel-set-for-growing-glut-as-demand-fal...
Nov 06, 2024•18 min•Ep. 927
Why are interest rates rising at one end of the yield at the same time falling on the opposite side? With more recession data coming in all the time, starting with payrolls, it seems as though there should be a uniform response from the marketplace. But that's not how steepening works. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Washington Post House Passes Bush Tax Cut https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/03/09/house-passes-bush-tax-cut/99152799-f156-414f-82c4-bed4fca05bb...
Nov 05, 2024•18 min•Ep. 926
October payrolls were exceptionally weak, yet LT rates jump? With more rate cuts from the Fed basically assured, questions swirl around the Treasury selloff having many people wondering if there is a 'Trump trade' going on here. The answers are right there in front of us. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Nov 04, 2024•18 min•Ep. 925
This isn't about October or hurricanes. Government just confirmed jobs market is in big f-ing trouble. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS Employment Situation October 2024 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.pdf CNN Messy October jobs report muddied by strikes and storms ahead of Election Day https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-october-11-01-24/index.html https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Nov 03, 2024•18 min•Ep. 924
The government's latest data confirms the dramatic slowdown sweeping across the labor market. We've been documenting hours being cut, quitters quitting quits, no one hiring, and now even a few layoffs. Not only do the latest figures back all that up, they also help explain consumer behavior and even the last GDP estimate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Ford guides to low end of 2024 earnings forecast as it slightly tops Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations https://ww...
Nov 01, 2024•21 min•Ep. 923
Another seemingly solid US GDP report for the books thanks in large part to a huge allotment of missiles. Does this mean the soft landing has been achieved? Even if it has been achieved, we wouldn't know it from GDP data. Instead, history shows cyclical changes all look decent just before them. The latest quarterly data is not just comparable, it is, surprisingly, worse than every other period entering recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.universit...
Oct 31, 2024•18 min•Ep. 922
Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such a solid fit for it? The answer lies in the carry trade and what it means for funding markets as well as US recession risks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Mizuho Buys ‘Safe’ Assets on Risk That US Soft Landing Fails https://www.bloo...
Oct 29, 2024•19 min•Ep. 920
Some unexpected bad news out of South Korea has implications for AI and a lot more. The investment boom triggered by ChatGPT has been a critical support for especially the Asian economy. Now there are signs it is cooling off along with a further setback in autos. Inopportune timing, to say the least. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg South Korea’s Economy Ekes Out Growth as BOK Assesses Risks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/south-korea-s-economy-...
Oct 28, 2024•19 min•Ep. 919
Gold continues to soar to record highs, but why? Most will say inflation though bullion is actually a terrible inflation hedge. The reason why many people believe this is the one time during the Great Inflation. Gold's run in the seventies was instead about what happened in the sixties long before the inflation. And it's the same thing - the other end of it - that we're seeing today. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Boston Bretton Woods Conference 1984 https://www.bostonfed...
Oct 27, 2024•18 min•Ep. 918
A lot of people are asking if the Fed now regrets cutting rates by 50 bps in September, or maybe cutting at all. Recent data make it seem as though the soft landing never went anywhere, plus what appears to be happening with market interest rates. In truth, every part of this Fed "regret" trend is wrong, starting with the view from the central bank itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Federal Reserve Beige Books https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/bei...
Oct 25, 2024•18 min•Ep. 917
Another central bank moves up its rate cut plans, accelerating its rate reductions with a 50-bps cut. At the same time the IMF lowers growth projections and warns risks of more downside are rising. These two developments are related to the same thing. It's becoming clearer where this weakness is coming from and that's why the public sector is starting to become more aggressive. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bank of Canada October 2024 Monetary Policy Report https://www.banko...
Oct 24, 2024•18 min•Ep. 916
Huge thanks to Eric Basmajian and train-traveler Mike Green for answering member questions. Member/Subscriber Live Q&A recorded October 22, 2024.
Oct 23, 2024•56 min•Ep. 915
We are seeing the full effects of the debt crisis paradox. And it only seems like a "paradox" from hte perspective of conventional wisdom on the matter. Government debt is indeed bad for the economy, but not AT ALL in the way most people are led to believe or assume. This creates another paradox, one where that mainstream criticism does a lot to discredit all criticism thereby making even more debt likely. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Milton Friedman Newsweek February 1981 ...
Oct 22, 2024•20 min•Ep. 914
Does the Bank of Canada need to exist? Canada shares a lot more than just a common border with the US, interest rates, inflation, even changes in economic output. And those are all pointing in the wrong direction. The Canadian experience provides a perfect example of what globally synchronized really means in all its facets. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Oct 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 913
This may end up being the final straw for what's left of the global economy. With more highly negative signals from copper, gold, oil and swaps, even bond spreads here, we're getting more impressions that the part rolling recession is now rolling right on into the full thing. If this one goes, that's usually it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Carmaker Misery Is Dragging Down Global Credit Market Returns https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-16/carmaker-mis...
Oct 20, 2024•18 min•Ep. 912
A whopping 98% of American voters in one mainstream poll say the economy is a major concern, including 79% who rate it their top worry. Economists, the media, politicians, policymakers are at a loss to explain this. The latest data from the US government shows why that is, both the confusion and the underlying trouble. A vast majority of the evidence continues to consistently agree with what Americans are saying. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NRF Census Retail Sales Data Sho...
Oct 18, 2024•18 min•Ep. 911
Wall Street was rocked by a huge plunge in orders for ASML, a company which produces machines that touch practically every part of the global economy. That was followed by another four-letter firm, LVMH, which reported a shock decline in revenue. Both showing the same thing from very different angles, further confirming - along with swap markets - why there will be another leg down in interest rates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ASML Home https://www.asml.com/en ASML Q4 202...
Oct 17, 2024•20 min•Ep. 910
We are in the thick of bank earnings and quarterly reports. The one theme they keep coming back to is...losses. It's become such a problem even JPM CEO Jamie Dimon snapped during his last earnings call. The thing is, in spouting off he told the truth about all of it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Jamie Dimon Is Right. Forget the ‘Damn Number.’ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-14/jamie-dimon-is-right-analysts-need-to-look-beyond-their-models Bank o...
Oct 16, 2024•19 min•Ep. 909
Another update from top Chinese officials on the status of "stimulus" comes amidst a flurry of macro and banking data from the country. While many will claim the former cancels out the increasingly grim nature of the latter, the previous data still matters at the very least to describe the size of the hole China will have to climb out of. Assuming it is even making a reasonable attempt to. That last press gathering provided few assurances. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis China...
Oct 15, 2024•19 min•Ep. 908
