A big jump in jobless claims actually muddies the picture for the labor market. Meanwhile, consumer prices that many in the mainstream are claiming as sticky...are. But not for the reasons stated. We're seeing "sticky" prices in the technical sense, and that's not good. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg Odd Lots Austan Goolsbee Explains the Fed’s Big Rate Cut https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-11/austan-goolsbee-explains-the-fed-s-big-rate-cut Atlanta ...
Oct 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 907
The world’s major growth engine the past few years is showing more and worsening signs of finally cracking, including its currency hitting a record low just today. I’m not talking about the US, obviously, nor is it sickly China. India. If India has stumbled, too, as the rupee suggests, then there might be no escaping globally synchronized. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg India’s Industrial Output Declines For First Time in Two Years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/art...
Oct 14, 2024•18 min•Ep. 906
There is a story brewing in repo. Fails have broken a long run trend and they did it in early August. Latest data from FRBNY says that's still the case. It fits with a bunch of other data as well as brings up the ongoing unwind in the real yen carry trade. Finally, behind all of it is US recession fears driving fails, collateral, Japan's withdrawal, and more. And you don't have to take my word for it; hear it (or read it) straight from a carry trader himself. Eurodollar University's Money & ...
Oct 11, 2024•32 min•Ep. 905
While everyone - especially in Chinese and China-related stocks - get caught up in last month's "stimulus" frenzy, the overlooked the only real news that came out of it. Very quietly, the country's top bank regulator just casually mentioned the government was gathering a trillion yuan to "recapitalize" China's biggest six banks. Yeah. Meanwhile, volatility has hit the previously insane equity surge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ***Eurodollar University's Fall Sale*** Discou...
Oct 10, 2024•21 min•Ep. 904
Another recession warning and this one is related to brewing problems with unemployment. The September payroll report has put mainstream focus back on a soft- or no-landing scenario, but we've been there before not long ago. Meanwhile, apart from the unreliable payroll figure everything else continues to point to bigger trouble, including Americans who have stopped using their credit cards. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ***EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY FALL SALE*** Subscriptions and...
Oct 09, 2024•19 min•Ep. 903
US economic weakness continues to show up outside the country as much as inside (last payroll estimate notwithstanding). Japan's government leading indicator just tanked, lowest value since 2020 and pointing to growing trouble in Japan. Same from Mexico and even according to one by JP Morgan. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Ueda Hints at Dovishness After New Prime Minister Urges Caution https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ueda-hints-at-dovishness-after...
Oct 08, 2024•18 min•Ep. 902
September's payroll estimate soared WAY above expectations. Is it a Fed miracle? This isn't the first time this has happened; in fact, each of the last two times the FOMC began cutting rates met eerily similar results. Steve and I talk about what those were and why, also why that means everything right now. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ***EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY FALL SALE*** Best subscription prices on the Deep Dive Analysis, Daily Briefing, and EDU membership. https://ww...
Oct 07, 2024•18 min•Ep. 901
The bond rally is now one year old and it finally got to the point where central banks - including the Fed - are getting out of the way. Now that the market got what it "wants", there's no stopping it, right? Not quite. Nothing ever goes in a straight line, starting with policy pivots. The market will always surprise you. ***EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY FALL SALE*** https://www.eurodollar.university Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Oct 06, 2024•18 min•Ep. 900
There are several ways to know that the second phase for the global recession has started. While there is never a clear demarcation between any stages or just recession, for that matter, there are telltale signs and we are getting them bigtime. Summer keeps showing up as full of warnings, including one that explains everything from the economy to central bankers' increasingly panicking reaction to it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg ECB Can’t Ignore Headwinds to Econ...
Oct 04, 2024•20 min•Ep. 899
The Bank of Japan's very recent change of heart has apparently been strong enough to do the same for incoming Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Sounding aggressively hawkish where it came to interest rates just last week after his surprise ascent, suddenly he's completely changed his tune. Why? The answer can be found in another record low for a highly critical US$ market. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Ueda Keeps Rate Hikes in Play, Talks Down BOJ’s Part in Meltdown h...
Oct 03, 2024•19 min•Ep. 898
Jay Powell again reiterated that he believes the economy is "on solid footing." The most recent data on the labor market shows he's either wrong or lying. There is no equivocating these latest estimates in which hiring has collapsed. As if that wasn't enough, it was backed up by other sources. All of it pointing to summertime being the time for recession. It's all about hiring, and that has all but disappeared. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Powell Says Fed Not in a...
Oct 02, 2024•19 min•Ep. 897
Car stocks got clobbered as the global auto industry is heading for a major fall. There was a flood of announcements from carmakers all over the world this weekend as carmakers are facing very difficult choices. The fallout from the growing reverse will be profound given how important a rising auto market had been up to now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Stellantis Updates 2024 Financial Guidance https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/09/30/2954870/0/en/Stellantis-U...
Oct 01, 2024•18 min•Ep. 896
Now that everyone is coming to grips with economic weakness, particularly where it comes to employment conditions, understanding the high potential for a lot more or worse, people are trying to figure out where it is coming from therefore what might be done to turn it all around. Did the Fed break the economy? Are employers worried about the next President? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Sep 30, 2024•18 min•Ep. 895
Americans continue to say they're alarmed about job prospects. That's what consumer confidence is truly about, not consumer spending. Workers see and understand labor market shifts before they show up in the major data sources. The latest income data show there is every reason to believe what consumers are seeing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Conference Board September 2024 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Sep-2024 FRBNY Consumer Confide...
Sep 29, 2024•18 min•Ep. 894
Not content to leave it with the PBOC's Oprah-fest of rate cutting, China's central authorities announced what's being called a massive stimulus push. The response has been near-euphoria in Chinese and other stocks, but the opposite in more crucial markets and places. All the more curious given how much other "stimulus" is being offered around the world, central bank rate cuts that are accelerating. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Commit...
Sep 27, 2024•19 min•Ep. 893
It's not just USTs. Rates are falling all over the world faster in shorter maturities than long. That means a global wave of un-inversions and bull steepening right as more and more central banks plan to accelerate their own rate cutting. All of it for the same reason. Globally synchronized. ***CHECK OUT EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY's FALL SALE*** https://www.eurodollar.university Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NBB Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve https://www.n...
Sep 26, 2024•18 min•Ep. 892
Chinese authorities held a surprise press conference early this morning where PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng did his best Oprah Winfrey impression handing out rate cuts to practically everyone. All that does is further expose the gravity of the situation: the more the central bank or any authority does, the worse you know it is since rate cuts never work. China just announced a lot of them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China Unleashes Stimulus Package to Revive Econo...
Sep 25, 2024•19 min•Ep. 891
More confirmation that recession is coming back with a vengeance in Europe. The latest data indicates the dangers this time around including jobs and layoffs. This situation in Europe is hardly unique. This is why central bankers are out in force downplaying their own rate cuts; to the point a few policymakers are outright lying why they voted for them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Fed’s Waller Says Slowing Inflation Led Him to Support Large Rate Cut https://www.b...
Sep 24, 2024•18 min•Ep. 890
The Fed just cut its benchmark rate by 50-bps even though jobless claims are among the lowest in their history. At the same time, CPI shelter prices have accelerated. Neither seems like it would warrant the Fed action yet there are good reasons to believe true unemployment is very different from claims and current market rents are plunging. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Sep 23, 2024•19 min•Ep. 889
FedEx's CEO admitted some truth about the Fed's rate cut this week, and the stock was immediately punished for it, dropping 15% on Friday. This raises a bunch of questions, starting with: what happens to stocks in general when the Fed cuts rates? The answer is not what you think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC FedEx quarterly profit disappoints as demand for speedy delivery wanes https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/fedex-reports-drop-in-quarterly-earnings-on-lower-demand-for...
Sep 22, 2024•19 min•Ep. 888
Now that the Fed has done it, everyone wants to get in on the act. They call it "undershooting" which is just a fancy word for "bonds were right." Switzerland, Canada, even the Europeans all thinking hefty and accelerated schedules. Leave it to the Brits to be the lone exception. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Bank of Canada Officials Split on Balance of Inflation Risks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-18/bank-of-canada-officials-are-split-on-balance-...
Sep 20, 2024•18 min•Ep. 887
The Fed cut its benchmark rates by 50 bps in a panicky move to catch up to both the economy and the marketplace. Reaction in the latter was muted because this wasn't unexpected. All the FOMC did was confirm everything - and then deny that it did. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Fed Minutes Show Officials Rally Around Higher-for-Longer Rates https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/minutes-show-officials-rallying-around-higher-for-longer-rates FOMC September...
Sep 19, 2024•20 min•Ep. 886
People imagine a recession is when masses of people are being laid off and so consumer spending isn't just negative, it must be crashing. While those can happen in a downturn, they tend to show up at the end. So, if you're waiting for those to make a determination you'll be way too late. Evidence consistently and conclusively shows hiring not firing creates the recession environment that is marked by a drop in real spending. We have both. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Robert...
Sep 18, 2024•17 min•Ep. 885
Americans' hopes and dreams of better opportunities have utterly crashed and burned over the past five months. This isn't about more price increases, rather how those in the past have combined with recession prospects to rob the future. The 2020s have taken the worst aspect of the 2010s and added more trouble on top. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Larry Summers The Age of Secular Stagnation https://larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the-age-of-secular-stagnation/ Larry Summers IMF A...
Sep 17, 2024•20 min•Ep. 884
Consumers can't afford groceries, so how is a lower reverse repo rate going to help them? Now that it is settled the Fed will cut rates next week, everyone wants to know by how much. The real story is what's behind the cuts in the first place and what that means for financial markets as well as the economy. It isn't the murder hornet rate. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Sep 16, 2024•18 min•Ep. 883
Authorities in China continue to do everything they can to derail the country's globally synchronized bond rally. It continues to hit record low yields anyway in spite of increasingly desperate government efforts. But why? More ugly data on banks, incomes, and Chinese jobs shows bonds are right, and not just about what's already happened to this point. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis China Xinhua Xi Jinping presided over a symposium on comprehensively promoting ecological prot...
Sep 15, 2024•20 min•Ep. 882
The ECB cut rates for the second time, as expected, though amidst a strong bond/bund market rally that has now completely un-inverted that yield curve. This comes at a time when major businesses like Volkswagen are thinking about closing down factories due to how much idle capacity they have. What links all of these together, what explains all the facts, is that there was never a global recovery, only a transitory price illusion. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Half-...
Sep 13, 2024•19 min•Ep. 881
It was all banks all day yesterday. Basel rules foul-up. Warren Buffett continuing to dump BofA. Citi dumping on credit. Deutsche unloading CRE, or trying to. JP Morgan downgrading...itself. Most of all Ally Financial admitting unemployment is fast becoming a big problem and right on its balance sheet. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg JPMorgan Leads Banks in Dimming Outlooks, Spoiling Win on Rules https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/jpmorgan-leads-banks...
Sep 12, 2024•19 min•Ep. 880
There's no September here as interest rates continue to plunge. The two-year UST is at a record low relative to the Fed. In the past when the two-year has dropped like this it has meant nothing good. Combined with the still ongoing crash in energy prices, we have a solid sense of what's coming next. And it isn't just a lot of rate cuts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CHECK OUT EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S DDA SUBSCRIPTION GO MUCH DEEPER AND STEP INTO THE BLACKHOLE OF MONEY AND MAC...
Sep 11, 2024•20 min•Ep. 879
Interest rates continue to collapse in China even outpacing US Treasuries. Commodities are being crushed as prospects for the world's two largest economies are getting worse by the week; by the day. Over the weekend, the Chinese reported negatives in consumer and more so producer prices, adding more evidence to what is shaping up in bond markets and beyond as a looming deflation shock. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China’s Deflationary Spiral Is Now Entering Danger...
Sep 10, 2024•19 min•Ep. 878
