Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRBNY Term Premia calculations https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/in...
Dec 25, 2024•20 min•Ep. 968
LT Chinese bond rates have been falling fast for a while. Over the last two weeks, ST yields have completely collapsed; most of it last week, too. Why? Maybe more important, why now? The mainstream answer to either one is total nonsense and easily debunked from the September bazooka. What does that leave? Possibly an old familiar name. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Chinese Regulator Asks Insurers to Report Vanke Debt Holdings https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles...
Dec 24, 2024•20 min•Ep. 967
According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jeff...
Dec 23, 2024•19 min•Ep. 966
There's more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil's story isn't strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming 'speculators.' If that's the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry which is crashing now, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Brazil Central Bank Rejects Doubts Over Power of Monetary Policy...
Dec 22, 2024•20 min•Ep. 965
While everyone is hanging on the Fed and the FOMC's indecision about how many rate cuts next year, there are currency crises - plural - beginning to break out in key places. One of those is Brazil where it has gotten so dangerous the country's central bank is now regularly intervening in FX spot markets. What's really going on here? The black hole is angry. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Dec 20, 2024•21 min•Ep. 964
Stocks tanked, bond yields soared, the dollar jumped. All because the Fed doesn't know what it's going to do now? Partly, yeah. There's a lot more to the story, however. Given the tortuous road to rate cuts, it wasn't suddenly going to become smooth sailing now that they've started. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Dec 19, 2024•31 min•Ep. 963
Canada. France. Germany. What do they have in common? Central banks in each are cutting rates. Also, their governments have either collapsed or, Canada, about to. Why? Same reason there are rate cuts. It's not ideology nor really partisanship. It's the economy, stupid. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Canada finance minister quits after clash with Trudeau, deals blow to government https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/canada-finance-minister-quits-after-clash-with-trudeau-deals-...
Dec 18, 2024•18 min•Ep. 962
Interest rates worldwide are hanging at the edge of a cliff. It may not seem like it from the current focus on the Fed and the possible pause in its rate cutting. This doesn't mean other central bank rate cuts, either. Instead, two very critical signals have absolutely plunged just in the past few days. Record lows in both are far more relevant than Jay Powell. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Dec 17, 2024•20 min•Ep. 961
The dollar continues to threaten to make a big move higher. Not only is the main dollar index right at the top end of its multi-year range, the buck is creating big problems for major currencies. The more other central banks or authorities struggle to contain the fallout, the greater the chance for that breakout. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Dec 16, 2024•20 min•Ep. 960
Update on T-bills. Last week's wild auctions repeated this week, only with flipped maturities. Other related data confirm the sharp demand as well as dealer participation in it. We discuss the implications plus dig into the reason why collateral is so important to begin with, and also why we don't know nearly enough about what's going on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y53nc7mb44azzaw FRBN...
Dec 15, 2024•23 min•Ep. 959
Swiss shock - again. Now fearing outright deflation and over the next six months, SNB pulls the trigger on a fifty. Back in March, amidst the "sticky" "inflation" freakout, when the SNB was the first central bank to begin cutting rates it was a warning to other central bankers and the rest of the world what was coming wasn't more "inflation." OPEC concurs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR REPLAY, w/SPECIAL GUEST JIM RICKARDS https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/26/7y5...
Dec 14, 2024•20 min•Ep. 958
Here comes Chinese central bank bond buying, but this is no QE. A report surfaced in China Daily strongly implying the Chinese government is beyond just exploring something called money-financed fiscal expansion. We'll go over what that is, how it is different from QE, and what the real takeaway is. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis China Daily Unconventional monetary steps eyed https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202412/11/WS6758cfcca310f1265a1d2293.html https://www.eurodollar.univ...
Dec 12, 2024•20 min•Ep. 957
Canada's official unemployment rate jumped in November, reaching its highest level since 2016 (outside 2020). And that was only the beginning. Given how highly synchronized US Treasury rates are with Canadian government bonds, not to mention the Fed and the Bank of Canada, we expect a lot of similarities in the real economy. This one is getting to be uncomfortably close. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https:...
Dec 11, 2024•19 min•Ep. 956
China's top government body, the politburo, attempted to reignite the "stimulus" sentiment with another wordy communication chock full of more promises and platitudes. To begin with, this doesn't bode very well for the "bazooka." Global market reaction wasn't what Beijing was looking for, either. Even stocks and Economists. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Webinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml SCMP...
Dec 10, 2024•19 min•Ep. 955
The BLS labor data had a chance to show that October's weakness really was just a combination of one-off factors, instead did everything to confirm that it wasn't those at all. That includes the headline payroll number, too. Unemployment is up and, when you properly account for everyone, up A LOT. Just like Canada. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre sign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https:...
Dec 09, 2024•18 min•Ep. 954
Wild week for a market that's supposed to be boring and go unnoticed. For the second straight month, heavy buying in bills right ahead of the payroll report. Except, in this case, buyers went utterly crazy for the 8-week bill in one of the most incredible bill auctions. But what is all this mess about? Yen, securities lending, and recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml https://www.euro...
Dec 08, 2024•21 min•Ep. 953
Sign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Dec 06, 2024•56 min•Ep. 952
Recessions are a process and what past episodes all have in common is one key ingredient. Rather, one element that comes up missing every time. This critical factor doesn't just end up being the difference between downturn and full-blown contraction, it also turns a recession into a depression. And we've got the data for it plus how 2024 fits into the pattern. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment https://home.uchicago.edu/s...
Dec 05, 2024•21 min•Ep. 951
The Christmas shopping season is off to a poor start, with dim results coming in from various sources showing lower traffic and slower spending. The reason is easy enough to identify, starting with the latest labor report from the government. Hiring fell sharply before summer and never came back, all of that leading up to the holidays. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml Bloomberg Tally of US ...
Dec 04, 2024•19 min•Ep. 950
After a weekend of disappointing macro data (which was characterized as "mixed"), China's markets tanked. Not stocks, of course, instead more record lows in bonds plus a very sharp drop in CNY. As we know only too well, CNY DOWN = BAD and yuan is right back near multi-year lows. It's not the only one, either. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml Bloomberg China’s Factory Activity Expands in Sig...
Dec 03, 2024•18 min•Ep. 949
European banks have added a massive amount of government bonds to their holdings. At the same time, they refuse to lend into the real economy. Europe's depositories are hardly alone as we see the same defensive behavior all over the global system. There is only one reason why they all have become so incredibly defensive. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml Black Friday/Cyber Monday Sale at...
Dec 02, 2024•19 min•Ep. 948
India's RBI just recently has gone *massively* short the US dollar and in the NDF market, too, just to keep the crumbling rupee from sinking even more. This won't work exposing the central bank to losses and also potentially amplifying the downdraft in the currency. A big update on the fundamentals explains. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg India Plows Into NDF Market as It Fights Back Against Dollar https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-plows-into-...
Dec 01, 2024•18 min•Ep. 947
An entire batch of corporate reports from retailers to computer-makers, just in time for the key holiday season's critical moment. Each one warning that consumers in the US just aren't there, being held back. Why? The government also reported today with the answer to that question, the one factor that ties it all together. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Inflation-Battered Consumers Are Going to Extreme Lengths to Nab Holiday Deals https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
Nov 28, 2024•18 min•Ep. 946
Japan's yen has diverged from other currencies over the past few weeks, strengthening against the dollar. That suggests more carry trading dynamics, an interplay between different versions of them. Yes, there is more than one carry trade and understanding the distinctions is key to getting a sense of possible vulnerabilities here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671piml Reuters Explainer: What are...
Nov 27, 2024•20 min•Ep. 945
Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn't seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn't that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues about a progression. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim Rickards Sign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/re...
Nov 26, 2024•19 min•Ep. 944
Is the bond selloff over? What caused it in the first place? With European rates, in particular, heading lower on recession (more than) risks, the tendency of Treasuries to converge with them raises the chances yields may not have much farther to go if they aren't topped out already. Given the fundamental background, it appears to be a matter of time more than anything. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnide...
Nov 25, 2024•17 min•Ep. 943
The European situation is getting to be truly serious. And that means growing problems for...the dollar. Not the exchange value against other currencies, rather why that exchange value is rising and how trouble in Europe means trouble in global money. European banks have been back in a big way at the black hole's center. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis President Ford Economic Report to Congress 1975 https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sites/default/files/books/presidential-documen...
Nov 24, 2024•21 min•Ep. 942
China and Japan selling record amounts of Treasuries. Do they hate the dollar? Donald Trump? You and me? Not only will we answer the questions, while those countries saw huge selling of USTs, curiously the Cayman Islands got a truly massive deposit of them and it showed up during July, August and September. Seems very carry trade-y. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Nov 22, 2024•28 min•Ep. 941
A double whammy on US consumers. First, the government issued an alarming update to the biggest jobs data there is. Then retail giant Target stunned with its Q3 results and more so its guidance for Q4. The thing is, both of those are related; two sides of the macro coin. The one says the summer started really badly, the other it didn't get better. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Target raises 2024 profit forecast as price cuts draw shoppers https://www.reuters.com/busi...
Nov 21, 2024•17 min•Ep. 940
Warren Buffett continues to sell tens of billions worth of stocks. Everyone wants to know why. This divergence between major stock index most likely holds the answer. Normally stock indexes don't mean much beyond their beauty, yet they can be important signals at times like now when they do diverge in such an obvious and sustained way. This is a key cyclical one, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Berkshire Hathaway’s cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells mor...
Nov 20, 2024•18 min•Ep. 939
