Banks are in full-on defensive mode, GDP is in a huge and growing hole, and central bankers are realizing they're stuck no matter what. The end of last year for Europe stands as a stark warning that this global transition remains far from over with - even after two years of it already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB statement https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.html Bloomberg ECB Cuts Rates for Fifth Time as Euro-Zone Economy Flatlines https:/...
Jan 31, 2025•20 min•Ep. 999
Reviewing the Fed, the Canadians, Sweden, and previewing the ECB. Market reactions and what really happened at the FOMC. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Bets on Big Treasuries Rally Are Booming Before Fed Decision https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/bets-on-bigger-treasuries-rally-are-booming-before-fed-decision Bloomberg Traders Bet ECB Will Need to Deepen and Accelerate Rate Cuts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-29/traders-bet-ecb-will...
Jan 30, 2025•33 min•Ep. 998
Shipping rates have plunged in January. The sinking demand for raw materials is another warning about the state of the economy in 2025. It was one echoed yet again by American consumers who, after a short reprieve on rate cuts and election, are right back to worrying about jobs and incomes all over again. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/baltic_dry_index.asp Bloomberg US Consumer Confidence Drops to Four-Month Low on Job Market ...
Jan 29, 2025•18 min•Ep. 997
Chinese banks are the real story, even as China's government (intentionally?) stole the spotlight with its AI-knock-off, a distraction from the latest real economy warning and most importantly the banking sector's latest. The credit crisis in the latter may finally be coming to a head as it keeps the former from stabilizing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis AA Xi Jinping https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/on-chinese-new-year-s-eve-xi-vows-to-confront-challenges-without-hesit...
Jan 28, 2025•21 min•Ep. 996
South Korea is the latest to fall into "forgot how to grow" and Texas Instruments showed the world why. Both were slammed this week for getting to the same place from different perspectives. Critical cyclical indications that shocked the consensus. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg Texas Instruments Suffers Worst Rout Since 2020 on Weak Forecast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/texas-instruments-outlook-signals-chip-slump-is-persisting https://www...
Jan 27, 2025•18 min•Ep. 995
While the dollar was screaming higher the past few months, that eurodollar disorder had foreign govts absolutely raiding their reserves, money dealers hoarding record amounts of collateral and record Treasuries being piled up by depositories. And those were just the beginning. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 26, 2025•22 min•Ep. 994
President Trump created quite a stir in his speech to Davos, demanding, among other things, lower oil prices from OPEC plus lower interest rates out of Jay Powell. In fact, those two are linked with the one expected to pave the way for the other. What's the real game here? More important, what are the chances this can work? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Trump Urges Lower Oil Prices, Interest Rate Cuts at Davos https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-23/trum...
Jan 24, 2025•20 min•Ep. 993
Tariffs on Mexico and Canada begin on February 1, or do they? Whether President Trump is merely posturing or not, the threat is real and the situation globally they would be starting from makes for a difficult mix. That's why the dollar is rising, rates are falling, and real economy variables are already experiencing significant pressure. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Mexico, Canada by Feb. 1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...
Jan 23, 2025•18 min•Ep. 992
UK payrolls took a massive hit in both November AND December. While the media looks for reasons to blame, the answer instead comes from all the rest of the world. Unemployment is on the rise all over the place, with the situations in some of them going way beyond softening or weakness. More than a few places you might not think of having a major employment downturn are, a warning to the world this is getting really serious. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Surprise UK...
Jan 23, 2025•20 min•Ep. 991
Many regulators worry there is the potential for systemic crisis begun by so-called shadow banks. The banks you already know are the last one. In the decade and a half since 2008 the eurodollar world has evolved yet again. The aftermath of that last one opened the door to go back into the shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg US Lays Path for More Financial Giants to Get Fed Oversight https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-03/yellen-lays-path-for-more-fin...
Jan 21, 2025•21 min•Ep. 990
The verdict for the Christmas season is in and...not good. Consumers wanted to spend. They tried to spend. They couldn't spend, not what they wanted or retailers needed. Americans simply don't have enough funds and so the downturn marches on. Eurodollar University's conversation with Steve Van Metre Signet Jewelers Announces Holiday Sales Results https://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-news-release/2025/Signet-Jewelers-Announces-Holiday-Sales-Results/default.as...
Jan 20, 2025•17 min•Ep. 989
Germany's economy is doing something we've never seen before. Not only did it contract for the second straight year, that's not even the most amazing part. The general pattern it is taking is one that is being repeated all around the world. It's as if the entire global economy stopped growing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg German Economy Shrinks for Second Year in New Blow to Scholz https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/german-economy-shrinks-for-secon...
Jan 19, 2025•19 min•Ep. 988
China's money markets have started to come unglued, with serious illiquidity driving up money rates. Despite provoking one of the largest liquidity operations in twenty years from the PBOC yesterday, the disorder came back even worse today. All of this against the backdrop of a currency fight and the prospect China's bank credit problem becomes a full-blown liquidity crisis. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China's Central Bank Pumps Near-Historic Level of Cash Into F...
Jan 17, 2025•19 min•Ep. 987
Treasuries exploded on the release of the "inflation" figures for December. Those were rather unremarkable, taken in isolation wouldn't have been able to explain why such a heavy market reaction. There is much more to the CPI and what's going on in the bond market. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Why Some Bond Traders Bet Relentless Selloff Will Soon Lose Steam https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-14/bond-traders-wager-slump-set-to-ease-with-key-cpi-data-a...
Jan 16, 2025•31 min•Ep. 986
Russian sanctions triggered more than a surge in oil prices. Financial markets near-panicked bought in near-term futures contracts. While the jump in energy is already being called an huge inflation risk, it isn't even close. On the contrary, oil spikes always end a certain way. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNN Biden admin imposes harsh sanctions on Russian oil industry to cut off funding for Ukraine war effort https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/10/politics/biden-admin-russia-ener...
Jan 15, 2025•21 min•Ep. 985
Not a good day in India to start the week. The rupee’s currency crisis is accelerating. The central bank is burning through reserves at an unsustainable pace. India stocks were crushed, with the main SENSEX index down over a thousand points. Delhi also significantly dialed back its growth estimates while reports came out it is going to massively restate its November imports. Why is all this happening? It's not because of Jay Powell or Donald Trump. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analy...
Jan 14, 2025•21 min•Ep. 984
Another blowout payroll report, way above every expectation. That makes two in a row for the Est. Survey post-election. Plus, a big rebound for the HH Survey. Trump-bump, a sign of a resurgent economy finally shaking off the doldrums of the past year-plus? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 13, 2025•18 min•Ep. 983
China's yuan is hanging by a thread, the closest it has ever been to going over the government limit. Finally, even the mainstream media has caught on this has nothing to do with Jay Powell and the Fed. The bazooka has been utterly exposed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg PBOC Halts Bond Buying to Defend Yuan as Economic Gloom Worsens https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/pboc-says-it-will-temporarily-halt-buying-of-government-bonds Bloomberg China’s Mar...
Jan 12, 2025•20 min•Ep. 982
Credit card balances crashed in November, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. That's a major warning but not about spending. With such a negative signal instead relating to jobs and the labor market, why the hell are LT rates...rising? The answer to the question can be found in Canada and Germany. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 10, 2025•19 min•Ep. 981
And now for some layoffs to go with the ongoing alarming drop in hiring. More strong evidence the labor market in the US is on the edge of the Beveridge cliff. It may not actually be a cliff in the literal sense, yet all the data points to the economy being at that point...if not already past it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 09, 2025•19 min•Ep. 980
European banks are not acting like either inflation is breaking back out or that the economy is going to be fine and hit its widely-expected soft landing. Instead, what they are doing is the other side of the weak euro. Both are further corroborated by the latest from France and especially Switzerland, with another warning coming from the Swiss on more than "inflation." Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Traders See Euro Hitting Dollar Parity as Soon as This Month https...
Jan 08, 2025•20 min•Ep. 979
Canada's Prime Minister resigned, as expected, just as Canada announces more troubling economic data. The whole saga of PM Trudeau's downfall is actually perfectly illustrated by the loonie; and it applies to a lot more than Canada. It's a warning to both existing governments as well as the successors who take over for them after voters have had enough. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Fox Canada’s Trudeau announces resignation following party pressure amid criticisms of Trump,...
Jan 07, 2025•19 min•Ep. 978
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 06, 2025•24 min•Ep. 977
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jan 06, 2025•24 min•Ep. 976
Something big happened in late November, impacting markets all around the world. Responsible for the crash in currencies, the collapse in some interest rates, maybe even some modest upset over in the stock market. We have a number of clues to go off, a few suspects to analyze. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/trump-vows-an-additional-10percent-tariff-on-china-25pe...
Jan 03, 2025•19 min•Ep. 975
There are huge numbers being thrown around the stock market. Normally you can just ignore them since share prices go up almost no matter what. But these imbalances are now too big to simply dismiss and key sectors in the equity market aren't buying them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WSJ Stocks on Pace for Best Two Years in a Quarter-Century https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-on-pace-for-best-two-years-in-a-quarter-century-c5b5f9b3 NYT Wall St. Sees More Gains Ahead A...
Jan 01, 2025•17 min•Ep. 974
A plunge in Chicago kicks off more concerns over the global car business. Layoffs and plant closures keep coming as automakers are having enormous difficulties first aligning their businesses with the lack of recovery. On top of that, more indications beside Chicago pour in showing falling cyclical demand for cars, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Europe's embattled auto sector plans plant closures and layoffs https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/e...
Dec 31, 2024•20 min•Ep. 973
The biggest surprise of 2024 wasn't any election results nor was it the fact central banks worldwide are more desperately accelerating rate cuts as the year draws to close. Or that other governments and officials are resorting to increasing panicky measures to calm markets in their areas. What caught everyone so off guard about '24 was the one outcome that stands behind all of those things. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IMF WEO January 2024 https://www.imf.org/en/Publication...
Dec 29, 2024•23 min•Ep. 971
After facing a major setback, the Reserve Bank of India has ditched its longshot desperation tactic aimed at 'speculators' betting against the rupee. They aren't the problem, the fundamentals are - global fundamentals. There is a lot INR has to say about those as it becomes the latest to plunge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Business Standard RBI dials down use of NDFs to fight dollar, balance rupee stability https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/rbi-dials-down-use-...
Dec 28, 2024•29 min•Ep. 970
More indications of substantial problems for American workers - they can't find any jobs. But why? Moreover, what will it take to get this major hiring freeze to thaw? It isn't rate cuts or lower rates. Nor does it appear the election has worked, either. Consumers plunged back into fears over jobs and incomes in December. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NBC News From 'Great Resignation' to 'Great Detachment': How the U.S. job market has slowed https://www.nbcnews.com/business/...
Dec 27, 2024•19 min•Ep. 969
