June #payrolls #jobs data stumbled badly. Worse, previous months were revised a lot lower erasing prior acceleration. The #unemployment rate went lower, though that was the lone bright spot (which you shouldn't consider as one). US #recession is more than fully on track which raises alarms given how recessions usually work in labor markets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke At the Meetings of the American Economic Association, San Diego, Calif...
Jul 08, 2023•18 min•Ep. 515
Central banks want rates to go up but markets have largely resisted. Upping the ante, the FOMC admits there's going to be a recession but claims it will raise its rates anyway. As a result, this pushes the Fed pivot somewhat further into the future by raising the bar for any rate cuts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Bets on ‘Year of the Bond’ Persist in Face of Still-Hawkish Fed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-05/year-of-the-bond-loses-luster-as-rob...
Jul 07, 2023•19 min•Ep. 514
Central banks have said inflation risks are all in core price numbers. Here's yet another core instead deeply in deflation, so bad it fell at a rate we haven't seen since the worst part of the Great Recession. And though it may "only" be a producer price figure, history conclusively shows that it - not core CPIs - is the one to follow. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com...
Jul 06, 2023•18 min•Ep. 513
The manufacturing recession has reached its critical point where producers have to decide to keep workers or start laying them off. Unemployment is now rising because the second half economic rebound just isn't happening. Instead, work is disappearing as new sales fail to materialize forcing companies worldwide to make their choice. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis S&P Global US Manu https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/347746d7505243f8b84ca01657a4410a JPM ...
Jul 04, 2023•18 min•Ep. 512
Federal bank regulators are issuing guidance to banks to do everything they can potentially limit any credit losses. With recession bearing down and loan portfolios exhibiting initial signs of major stress, authorities are clearly seeking to limit the public fallout in another can-kicking scheme. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealCle...
Jul 03, 2023•19 min•Ep. 511
Despite stubborn core inflation rates in the US and Europe, each economy is exhibiting more and more definite signs of recession and deflation. Unemployment is up in Europe's biggest economies and US consumer spending has sunk. Core consumer price rates never represent resilient labor markets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearM...
Jul 02, 2023•19 min•Ep. 510
While Q1 GDP was revised higher for the US, that's looking back at what is now ancient history. Looking ahead at Q2 and beyond, not just recession perhaps worse in huge part because of what's being uncovered behind the growing credit crunch. The Fed's stress test uncovered substantial future risks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Federal Reserve Stress Test Results https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20230628a.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/publica...
Jun 30, 2023•19 min•Ep. 509
The deflation and banking crisis which really began last fall that has now become a full-blown credit crunch and recession was far more about collateral shortages than anything else. It sure wasn't rate hikes. Not only have yield curves and interest rates told the truth, one central banker in Europe admits to it, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Money Market Contact Group meeting https://www.ecb.eu...
Jun 29, 2023•19 min•Ep. 508
China's yuan currency has been incredibly weak to the point authorities in Beijing have been unable to successfully intervene against the dollar. It spells worldwide trouble given falling CNY is a dependable global recession and crisis signal. The worse it becomes for the Chinese, the more deflation we should expect elsewhere. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://...
Jun 28, 2023•19 min•Ep. 507
The global economy is accelerating to the downside into more than just a short, shallow recession. It is instead sped along in the deflationary direction by the fallout from the March banking crisis which continues to spread all over the world. Credit crunch. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-23/commercial-real-estate-reset-is-causing-distress-from-san-franc...
Jun 27, 2023•19 min•Ep. 506
Economic conditions have worsened recently indicating the economy shifting gears from shallow downturn to full-blown recession. With new sales sinking, companies all over are ready to face their decision-point on workers and layoffs. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES...
Jun 26, 2023•19 min•Ep. 505
The global economy has turned a corner, and not in a good (or inflation) way. Widespread ugly data and market positioning strongly suggest the deflationary recession is accelerating to the downside. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis HCOB Flash Eurozone PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6a9a73ef2b4d449eb8a8d9b827cb2070 S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6e8efbfbddde43f29eb12c5193939625 Twitter: https...
Jun 25, 2023•19 min•Ep. 504
Three more global central banks hiked interest rates despite even more determined recession signals here and abroad. Here we see just why they continue to act as if inflation is the world's biggest threat even though data and markets go completely the other way. Now labor, too. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators for June 2023 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators Liberty Street Economics: The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— June 2023 https://libertystreetecono...
Jun 23, 2023•19 min•Ep. 503
#China yuan keeps plummeting to new lows as #deflation and #recession collide in growing global #dollar shortage. Yet, Jay Powell tells Congress he's more worried about #inflation even though this key #money signal is one among many against it. A recent paper by Ben Bernanke actually describes the mainstream problem - in the process inadvertently explaining why Powell is so off. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Testimony Jerome Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the C...
Jun 22, 2023•19 min•Ep. 502
Central banks want #interestrates to go up if only to convince you they're fighting #inflation, when #deflation is keeping a lid on those and even pushing some market #yields lower. One that is moving down is a big one worth paying attention to. Contrary to popular perception, low rates are not easy money and conditions. Just ask Ben Bernanke. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinside...
Jun 21, 2023•19 min•Ep. 501
China's government failed to deliver concrete "stimulus" plans because authorities are conflicted. In the absence of any good ideas for combatting deflationary recession, they'll issue more rate cuts that never work hoping beyond hope something clicks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SCMP: China’s State Council fans stimulus hopes with economic plan for faltering growth https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3224445/chinas-state-council-fans-stimulus-hopes-economic...
Jun 20, 2023•19 min•Ep. 500
#interestrates hikers and #centralbank hawks ignore failed #banks in favor of wages, Phillips Curve, and #inflation expectations. They believe the #economy has gone retro and we're stuck in 1978 when more and more each day looks too much like 2008. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Speech by Governor Christopher J. Waller https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20230616a.htm Bloomberg: Fed’s Barkin Comfortable Doing More to Slow Resilient US Economy htt...
Jun 19, 2023•18 min•Ep. 499
Following the alarming data from China, New Zealand confirms it is has succumbed to #recession while Australia's yield curve inverted for first time since 2008. Central banks continue to focus on #inflation because of labor data that is wildly overstating economic strength. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https...
Jun 18, 2023•19 min•Ep. 498
The #federalreserve is pausing while the ECB is aggressively hiking #interestrates all at the same time the People's Bank of #china is cutting theirs. What is going on with the global #economy? The answer is #recession and #deflation though those haven't yet knocked #inflation down enough for some of these central bankers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB: Monetary policy decisions https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230615~d34cddb4c6.en.html The spokesp...
Jun 16, 2023•18 min•Ep. 497
The #FOMC #federalreserve decided against another #ratehike today, instead choosing not to choose. Some officials insist #inflation is the biggest risk but apparently not enough to act right now. Instead, #recession and #bank problems still weigh enough to force this nonsense of a "hawkish pause" as a temporary compromise. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: There’s More Trouble Coming for Regional Banks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-10/apollo-spotted-...
Jun 15, 2023•18 min•Ep. 496
#Deflation #recession shows up in both the US #CPI and #China's credit system during the same month. This isn't random coincidence, rather the effects of the global downturn speeding up and taking over more geographic and economic spaces. It's already enough to get Beijing worried, though not yet enough to do the same in DC. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China Credit Growth Beats Expectations Amid Investment Push https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-11/...
Jun 14, 2023•19 min•Ep. 495
Are #stocks a useful indicator of #recession? How about #depression? If they were, they can't explain how there wasn't a Great Depression 2 in the late 80s. After all, there were hundreds of #bank failures especially after the Crash of '87. Yet, we remember that period of time fondly as the Great "Moderation", a prolonged age of unrivaled global prosperity. The differences btw the 80s and 30s tell us a lot about our chances in the 20s. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Conf...
Jun 13, 2023•20 min•Ep. 494
Crisis borrowing at the Fed's emergency BTFP surged this week to a new high as #bankingcrisis grows critical. We're seeing more and more signs of serious #creditcrunch which, if it continues like this, won't take long to imperil more markets and the general #economy. #recession Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg: Ackman-Backed Builder Says 48 Lenders Rejected Apartment Project https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-08/real-estate-builder-backed-by-ac...
Jun 12, 2023•19 min•Ep. 493
Both producer and consumer prices in #china fell again in the month of May as global #recession continues to hammer the Chinese economy. Though central banks see only #inflation risks, the #deflationary economy is no longer a risk. This one goes a long way toward confirming it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China Central Bank Governor Reiterates Stable Policy Stance https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-09/china-s-central-bank-governor-reiterates-stable-...
Jun 11, 2023•19 min•Ep. 492
The global #dollar system is at its weakest point at these specific calendar spots, most susceptible to #collateral problems causing #deflation in #money. With the #bank crisis still raging under the surface, we're going to take a deeper look inside the shadows to see if we can find some answers here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis OFR: Why Is So Much Repo Not Centrally Cleared? https://www.financialresearch.gov/briefs/files/OFRBrief_23-01_Why-Is-So-Much-Repo-Not-Centrally-Cl...
Jun 09, 2023•20 min•Ep. 491
Central banks in Australia and Canada ended their short #ratehikes #interestrates pause, ignoring the global #recession risks China just reminded everyone about for their own #inflation biases. History (not to mention markets) caution against prematurely shifting when faced with such a high level of uncertainty. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis World Bank Global Economic Prospects https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects RBA Statement by Philip Lowe, G...
Jun 08, 2023•19 min•Ep. 490
We can actually see #deflation right now in the form of falling producer prices. Europe reported a record drop in its PPI which has major implications starting with #recession and what this means for #inflation. Declining oil and producer prices today are linked to consumer prices and the economy tomorrow. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Do Producer Prices Lead Consumer Prices? https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/1005/1995-Do%20Producer%20Prices%20Lead%20Consumer%20Prices%...
Jun 07, 2023•19 min•Ep. 489
Deflation and recession are everywhere. Almost. Of the few holdouts, only some of the US labor data starting with the least serious of the accounts. Apart from it, markets and macro are almost completely in sync. The ambiguity of previous months is melting away in favor of clarity. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essay...
Jun 07, 2023•18 min•Ep. 484
Saudis try for #oilpricehike but #oil runs instead into unmovable #recession. The real #economy continues to weaken which means demand is dominating market factors, not supply. Confirming the oil market's view of the situation, key US services data tumbles. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/05/opec-oil-prices-pop-after-saudi-arabia-pledges-production-cuts.html Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https:/...
Jun 06, 2023•18 min•Ep. 488
#realestate and property #assetbubble across the world is going bust risking a renewed #bankcrisis plus #recession the US. The situation in #China with developers rather than turning around is causing the government to repeat its failed strategies. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China Mulls New Property Support Package to Boost Economy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/china-mulls-new-property-market-support-package-to-boost-economy#xj4y7vzkg Bloom...
Jun 05, 2023•19 min•Ep. 487
