Payroll report (CES) shows steady growth in top-line jobs though anything but everywhere else. Hours are being outright cut while employment (CPS) was down big with economic recession ramping up. Even the unemployment rate jumped for once. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouT...
Jun 04, 2023•18 min•Ep. 486
Inflation pressures are disappearing as deflation and recession conditions continue to take over. The Federal Reserve won't be able to keep up its interest rate stance for very long. The 5-year TIPS breakeven was once the epitome of the "inflation" panic, swelling to record highs during March 2022's shock crisis. And while the Fed continues to see inflation everywhere, that same market measure just hit a new multi-year low. Worse, it did so while more and more points to the fact time's up on def...
Jun 02, 2023•19 min•Ep. 485
Oil can't catch a sustained bid, too easily falling right back into contango. With the US debt ceiling agreement (in principle), rates markets worldwide can now go back to their regularly scheduled alarms. And they have. European banking data shows why that is as contagion spreads across loan books. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC: Credit Suisse weighs capital hike, possibility of exiting U.S. market https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/22/credit-suisse-weighs-capital-hike-looks-...
May 31, 2023•18 min•Ep. 483
Everyone loves GDP including the government agency which calculates it. Even so, GDI has been a more useful signal for cyclical changes, particularly peaks. Last week's GDP update included the first look at current GDI estimates. These don't leave any room for interpretation or imagination. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMark...
May 30, 2023•19 min•Ep. 482
Structural inflation or something else. To mainstream Economists, consumer prices are being driven by structural forces such as demographics, oil production, and, of course, government. As Ronald Coase once said, torture the data long enough and it will confess. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Ronald Coase: Volume Title: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 3, Policy Issues and Research Opportunities in Industrial Organization https://www.nber.org/syst...
May 29, 2023•19 min•Ep. 481
Trying to figure out the state of the economy and monetary system by looking backward through consumer price estimates is, well, backward. To understand where we're going, we have to look forward by breaking down the eurodollar details, decoding the data and its signals. Where money is moving...and where it isn't. Shedding some light into the dark eurodollar shadows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis DTCC GCF Repo https://www.dtcc.com/clearing-services/ficc-gov/gcf-repo Twitter:...
May 28, 2023•20 min•Ep. 480
German GDP revisions show the country already mired in recession despite the government's assurances there wouldn't be one. And to reemphasize the global nature of the deflationary setback, US corporate profits tanked in the first quarter right when American hiring and wages was hoped to be enough for the soft landing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Scholz Sees Germany Riding Out War in Ukraine Without Recession https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-01-17/ge...
May 26, 2023•19 min•Ep. 479
The deflationary wave sweeping the global system isn't one thing or another, it is becoming all the things everywhere. That's what makes such a compelling case for the worst case, a deflationary recession. Not just US banks or US markets, here we examine European markets and forward rates and what those mean. SPOILER: the same things. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress; Chairman Jerome H. Powell; July 17, 2018 https://www.federalr...
May 25, 2023•18 min•Ep. 478
Saudi Arabia's oil minister implicitly threatened more action from OPEC due to "low" prices and growing short positions betting against supply constraints. Demand is increasingly dire and not just for energy. Deflationary signals are growing in other commodities as well as a whole bunch of economic data, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Telegraph (India): Reserve Bank of India intervenes strongly to stop rupee slide without targeting any level https://www.telegraphindia.co...
May 24, 2023•17 min•Ep. 477
The LIBOR scandal won't go away because it hasn't been properly identified. Govts and officials have alleged it was banks who misbehaved when all along it may have been authorities. Why did they get rid of LIBOR? Because it exposed the real corruption in the monetary world. The EURODOLLAR's world. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BBC: Interest rate 'rigging' evidence 'covered up' by banks https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65635243 RCM: New Urgency In the Marketplace Lacks Meani...
May 23, 2023•19 min•Ep. 476
Treasury Secretary Yellen held talks with major Wall Street CEOs and bank advisors, raising the subject of further bank mergers. Though that part of the discussion wasn't in the official readout, it was reported anyway and something Yellen had already said in public just a little while ago. There is every reason to believe there is more big trouble ahead. Govt/Wall Street discussions of "mergers" is just more confirmation. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Reuters: Ye...
May 22, 2023•19 min•Ep. 475
Everyone remotely familiar with banking over the last few years knows there's systemic risk and it starts with commercial real estate (CRE). The Fed's very own Financial Stability Report for May 2023 exposes the details behind the scenes. With CRE prices falling for the first time in over a decade, valuations will eventually have to be adjusted and then all bets are off. Literally. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Transcript: Oct 2008 call https://www.federalreserve.gov/mo...
May 21, 2023•19 min•Ep. 474
WTI futures curve moved further in contango, now joined by another major milestone for the dollar bull-ying its way across Asia. China's yuan has slumped substantially, today falling well below 7 to the dollar. CNY wasn't the only one caught up in the goring, though. The dollar bull's "sudden" return is a particularly bad omen especially now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C. https://www.fe...
May 19, 2023•18 min•Ep. 473
The expression "slowly at first, then all at once" can describe an economy's descent into nasty recession. There are warning signs all over starting with WTI back in contango. Major retailers have nothing good to say about the state of their customers. US total sales are already declining and in nominal terms. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis AP: Home Depot sees first annual sales decline in more than a decade as housing streak ebbs, rates jump https://apnews.com/article/home-d...
May 18, 2023•19 min•Ep. 472
China's reopening is dead and buried. The country's government reported truly sobering economic data that proved beyond any doubt there is nothing left to it. Worse, much of that same data showed the global economy is in big trouble as fallout from events over the last few months are, unfortunately, already producing results. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: China Leaders Surprised by Pace of Economy’s Rebound https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-01/china-...
May 17, 2023•18 min•Ep. 471
Forward rates and forward rate spreads have substantially deteriorated since March. They were already more inverted than at any time in 2007 leading up to 2008. How could they be so much worse in 2023? You have to understand what forward rate spreads are telling us and why. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Transcript; June 2007 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20070628meeting.pdf Ben Bernanke Congress Testimony; March 2007 https://www.federalreserve....
May 16, 2023•19 min•Ep. 470
Consumer confidence fell sharply in two recent surveys, as recession fears and banking woes deepen rather than fade. Small businesses facing the same pressures are beginning to crack, too, as the initial stages of contraction take shape. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPIS...
May 15, 2023•19 min•Ep. 469
Because so many of us focus so much on US banks, and US banks are making it easy to do this, it's also easy to lose sight of the fact this crisis is far from limited to the United States and a few of its banks. There are global elements at work. One we can see emerging in Sweden, and another in China we've been watching for a long time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.co...
May 14, 2023•18 min•Ep. 468
As expected, not only is another bank in danger of failing, they're blaming short sellers for it. Jamie Dimon made the ridiculous comments today as major market swings leave little doubt where all this is going. And if that wasn't enough, more big data to corroborate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit...
May 12, 2023•19 min•Ep. 467
Deflationary money leads to a deflationary economy which has to be disinflationary first. We keep getting "anomalies" in the monetary system (interest rate swaps and collateral) including another one this week. April's CPI already shows disinflation and more creeping into the US economy - particularly services. The two of these together will lead to falling CPIs...and more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.unive...
May 11, 2023•19 min•Ep. 466
The Chinese reported renewed declines for their imports, including a big one in crude oil. When OPEC announced production cuts, they could see China wasn't living up to reopening hype and the latest data absolutely confirms it (while driving a stake in the narrative). Not only are steelmakers there urging production cuts, too, US bank credit is about to become lights out if only to make things even worse. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_...
May 10, 2023•18 min•Ep. 465
Bad steepening in global curves from Treasuries to German bunds even French Obligations assimilables du Trésor (OATs). Regional banks have gotten all the attention though European banks have been experiencing serious deposit (therefore wholesale) trouble for longer. And maybe worse, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB M3 Press Release https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/stats/md/html/ecb.md2303~5a86c581c4.en.html Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.euro...
May 09, 2023•18 min•Ep. 464
It was not a good week for long oil traders or those betting on the economy and inflation. Prices were down huge Monday and Tuesday last week before suffering a flash crash Wednesday/Thursday. These together implicate bad liquidity as much as bad economy. As does the utter and worrisome collapse in Germany's goods sectors. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg: Oil’s Dramatic Open Leaves Traders Puzzled After WTI Crashes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...
May 08, 2023•18 min•Ep. 463
The April payroll report came out and the topline figure was far from terrible. Some might say it was pretty darn good. As usual, it is the rest of the employment numbers that tell the story. Whatever the payroll figure, there aren't any hours. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES...
May 07, 2023•18 min•Ep. 462
Both the Fed and ECB hiked rates this week (in successive days), each claiming inflation is still their greatest threat. German and Treasury markets didn't care one bit, altogether pricing unmistakable deflationary dangers that aren't in the future. They're happening right now. As one consequence, central banks are now priced to turn around into cuts by mid-summer. Maybe even late spring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Chair Jay Powell May 2023 Press Conference https://ww...
May 05, 2023•18 min•Ep. 461
Who cares about the Fed's (final) rate hike? You shouldn't. While chasing inflation risks that don't exist, instead markets are hedged and priced for serious deflation ahead. All the signs, all the history and basic economics conclusively point toward worse ahead. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bill Gross: Bull Market in Bonds Is Over https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-1297 Minutes FOMC Meeting July-Aug 2018 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20180801.h...
May 04, 2023•19 min•Ep. 460
Despite some relative calm yesterday after First Republic's failure, today was anything but as huge hedging in markets along with more turmoil in the broader banking sector. Bad economic data around the world reinforces the dangers of the 2008-style that continues to unfold right in front of us. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bberg: First Republic’s Demise Fails to Mark the All-Clear on Banks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-01/first-republic-leaves-bank-world-...
May 03, 2023•19 min•Ep. 459
Deflationary fallout has become visible and almost unmistakable in the one place which was supposed to save us from that very outcome. China's economy is getting weaker and even stock market investors are getting out and running for the exits. Not just China, but already spilling over to its closer partners. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis China NBS Press Release http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/202304/t20230429_1939137.html Darkening Gloom in Chinese Stocks Puzzles Wall Street...
May 02, 2023•18 min•Ep. 458
Another major US bank failed - First Republic - and the markets barely moved because this is all in the context of deflationary money. If so, we know where this is going. For interest rates and the overall economy. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversations w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://...
May 01, 2023•19 min•Ep. 457
First Republic finally fails and on the same day the Fed's report on SVB is released. It says SVB was on outlier, a loner. But that only raises more questions given what happened to First Republic (or Credit Suisse). The only place to find answers is from within the monetary system itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/svb-review-20230428.pdf Tw...
Apr 30, 2023•19 min•Ep. 456
