#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity Another thoroughly disinflationary headline CPI joined for a second month by its core component. Not only that, strengthening hints of deflation are becoming more frequent in the details, too. And if that wasn't enough, China's CPI falls negative and its PPI alarmingly goes further on the bad side, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Ma...
Aug 11, 2023•18 min•Ep. 545
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity August 9, 2007, is a date that should live in infamy but doesn't - not yet. Hardly anyone knows what happened or why it is today still so important and relevant. Amidst a banking crisis that hasn't gone away, Moody's gave us a reminder of it yesterday, understanding what went on and what came after is crucial. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Aug 10, 2023•19 min•Ep. 544
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #china #trade Just plain ugliness from China today, first with economic statistics that weren't just the worst since 2009 they are now becoming like 2009. Second, CNY keeps pushing lower to the point the PBOC may be forced to alter its attempt to stabilize China's currency against heavier deflationary and recession eurodollar pressures. This isn't just about the dire ...
Aug 09, 2023•17 min•Ep. 543
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment The second half of 2023 just isn't rebounding like so many have hoped. The inventory cycle continues to plague most of the world and is set to get worse not better. The yield curve has shifted to reflect that strong possibility; made stronger by the credit crunch which shows no signs of letting up through the first month of H2. Eurodoll...
Aug 08, 2023•17 min•Ep. 542
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment #supplyshock People hate the word "transitory" because they naturally believe a couple years wouldn't qualify under it. Yet, supply shocks historically take that much time and the current one we are experiencing is following that pattern very closely. What matters now, however, is what comes next. The data not only confirms the supply s...
Aug 07, 2023•18 min•Ep. 541
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment Payroll report for July wasn't just about July's payrolls. Instead, major downward revisions to every single month this year consistent with a serious enough downturn in the labor market. Plus, hours continue to contract while cyclical industries are right on the edge of mass layoffs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis C...
Aug 06, 2023•18 min•Ep. 540
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider Popular perception suggests services industries are insulated from macro problems plaguing manufacturers. While that may have been true at one time perhaps long ago, it wasn't true in '08 nor would it be today. If anything, service providers are even more closely linked to goods now than ever - many goods won't even function without services. Fewer sales of items, few...
Aug 04, 2023•18 min•Ep. 539
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #oil #gasoline #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #treasury #debt Fitch downgrades US government debt as its fiscal woes are piling up. Why? The same reason American use of gasoline just nosedived. This is also the reason why the government has been able to continue borrowing all it wants despite its dramatically worsening credit profile. Demand for safety and liquidity in unsafe and illiquid times mat...
Aug 03, 2023•17 min•Ep. 538
#deflation #recession #economy #bankfailure #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #bankingcrisis #bankingcollapse #china #layoffs #jobs Stocks are having a really good run, but why? Perceptions that rate hikes are coming to a close (correct) and the Fed has engineered a soft landing (not so much). What would spoil this illusion is a recession, though it will have to be confirmed by the labor market data first. Today's estimates indicate that's already happening. Eurodollar University's Money & Mac...
Aug 02, 2023•18 min•Ep. 537
#yellow #deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #bankfailure #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #bankingcrisis #bankingcollapse #china One of the largest trucking firms in the US, Yellow, is now formerly one of the largest trucking firms. Its story is the supply shock, general economy story in a nutshell. It was a fool's paradise that we now have to pay for. Most recent data shows the bill is already coming due and the costs are growing not ...
Aug 01, 2023•19 min•Ep. 536
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #bankfailure #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #bankingcrisis #bankingcollapse In July 2019, Fed Chairman Jay Powell told Congress he was increasingly worried major global weakness would envelope the US. As a result, the FOMC would vote to start cutting interest rates in a matter of weeks. Four years later, the FOMC is still hiking rates when the US and global economy is FAR weaker. How do we make sen...
Jul 31, 2023•18 min•Ep. 535
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #bankfailure #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #bankingcrisis #bankingcollapse The Goldilocks scenario is kept alive only through a fundamental misreading of the situation. New consumer price data from all over decisively shows the shift to disinflation. Here's what that actually means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodolla...
Jul 30, 2023•18 min•Ep. 534
#recession #inflation #china #deflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #economy #credit #jeffsnider #eurodollar #cpi #federalreserve #jeromepowell The ECB and Fed have hiked rates while simultaneously citing elevated "inflation" risks and a high level of uncertainty around forecasts and results. If each economy is doing as well as is claimed, then uncertainty would be low. There is instead an almost bipolar division between outlooks; a serious and worsening downside risk only balanced by a ...
Jul 28, 2023•17 min•Ep. 533
#china #europe #eurodollar #interestrates #lending #deflation #inflation Bank lending continues to contract in Europe as demand for loans there have plummeted to the worst in ECB's history (lending survey). The credit crunch is spreading and deepening meaning the European economy will more than struggle to get out of its recession, it will end up being shoved farther into it. And interest rates are not the reason why. On the contrary, interest rates are telling us what that reason is. Eurodollar...
Jul 27, 2023•19 min•Ep. 532
#dollar #cny #currency #deflation #recession #china China's PBOC FX interventions by themselves aren't having much luck which is why the central bank has directed commercial banks to assist, including earlier today with an aggressive push. The market weakness in the currency like the intervention is a warning of big problems and not just about China. Those were likewise acknowledged by the politburo in its mid-year assessment which offered little by way of solutions to these vexing and "grim" co...
Jul 26, 2023•19 min•Ep. 531
#recession #manufacturing #services #globaleconomy #deflation #inflation With Germany and Europe already struggling to escape from the earlier recession, most recent July data on forward-looking sentiment shows the situation worsening substantially over the months still ahead. In the US, PMI numbers indicate the same if not yet to the same degree and intensity. Becoming more globally synchronized and deflationary. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Rep...
Jul 25, 2023•18 min•Ep. 530
#interestrates #inflation #deflation #recession #inversion #ratehikes A slew of Wall Street types are getting impatient - and cold feet - waiting for a recession they're not sure is happening. The market is sure causing them to wonder if the market is just wrong with its massive inversion. No, this time is never different. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre If Powell Wants Higher Rates, He Should Ask Why He's Not Getting Them https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2...
Jul 24, 2023•20 min•Ep. 529
#dollar #brics #gold #currency #money #eurodollar Next month, the BRICS summit is going to introduce a new common currency and one backed by gold. Or is it? Before it even begins, the group seems like it will have to proceed without the I and the S. Or any monetary sense. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis The Eurodollar Standard Isn't Going Anywhere Anytime Soon https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/06/02/the_eurodollar_standard_isnt_going_anywhere_anytime_soon_903165.h...
Jul 23, 2023•24 min•Ep. 528
#recession #inflation #deflation #taiwan #semiconductor #apple Taiwan Semiconductor reported pretty awful results blaming the global macroeconomic environment, specifically singling out inventory bloat as well as China's failed reopening. The effects aren't being limited to that side of the Pacific; the spillover is already affecting projects in the United States. We aren't supposed to say "recession" yet that's what we keep finding in big ways and small. Eurodollar University's Money & Macr...
Jul 21, 2023•18 min•Ep. 527
#recession #china #germany #trade #export #deflation #bonds Germany reported trade data exposing the resilient economy fallacy as a product of nothing more than the temporary nominal price illusion. Volumes are down huge and as values fall there's no more cushion from lack of activity. This isn't about Germany so much, either, as we can see in trade w/the German's biggest customers: China and the US of A. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: ECB Hawk Klaas Knot Pushes Ba...
Jul 20, 2023•18 min•Ep. 526
#recession #deflation #inflation #retailsales #industrial #consumer US Industrial Production fell for the second month in a row, dropping the Fed's index below the same period a year ago. A negative yearly change in IP has accompanied all 18 of the economic contractions in the NBER's library. Only six times in over a century has IP been negative on an annual basis without any full-scale recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: Stocks Climb After Yellen Eases Reces...
Jul 19, 2023•19 min•Ep. 525
#china #recession #inflation #deflation #industrial #spending #money China's GDP report as well as its monthly statistics confirm first reopening isn't just completely dead, instead the entire economy is already rolling over and heading toward more weakness. The global recession combined with China's own problems - which weren't really about the pandemic - have left the Chinese exposed to a dangerous downside and no lockdowns to blame this time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis...
Jul 18, 2023•19 min•Ep. 524
#recession #inflation #deflation #globaltrade #india #credit #bank India reported a huge drop in exports, one of its worst on record. A major US food producer says demand has worsened to the point some of its brands are having to cut prices. American banks are now scaling back certain loans. What do all these have in common? US consumers and the deflationary recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Conagra Earnings Report Transcript https://finance.yahoo.com/news/conagra-bra...
Jul 17, 2023•18 min•Ep. 523
#recession #inflation #deflation #taxes #employment #unemployment Individual income tax payments to Uncle Sam are running almost half a trillion (with a "T") behind same months in FY 2022. Withholdings are way off and claimed refunds are way up. At the same time, the June CPI showed broad-based disinflation and a little deflation. These two results aren't unrelated. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.un...
Jul 16, 2023•18 min•Ep. 522
Great Inflation 2, or soft landing? Those are the only two choices we're given for #inflation #deflation #recession when neither of those was ever likely. The reasons why the soft landing isn't happening and another Great Inflation simply can't are easily found in historical comparisons. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg: El-Erian Says Soft-Landing Narrative Gains Steam, Don’t Fight It https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-14/el-erian-says-soft-landing-narrat...
Jul 15, 2023•18 min•Ep. 521
The Chinese aren't taking their #eurodollar #dollar woes weakening yuan lying down #recession. But they aren't doing a whole lot meaningful about it, either. Why and why not? That's the (euro)dollar conundrum. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis PBOC: Notice of the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision on Extending the Deadline of Relevant Policies for Financial Support to the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market http://ww...
Jul 13, 2023•19 min•Ep. 520
#Consumer #spending is down already and now we're getting data which shows by how much, #recession. There's no #inflation here. Disney theme parks are empty, consumer #credit is actually contracting, the bad news is just getting started. Steve Van Metre nailed it when he pointed out services and vacation weakness on this channel just a couple months ago. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WSJ: Disney World Hasn’t Felt This Empty in Years https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-world-...
Jul 12, 2023•18 min•Ep. 519
China reported some of the worst #inflation consumer and producer price estimates in its modern history, within range of the worst parts of 2009. Such damaging #deflation shows #globalrecession #recession getting worse, and worse for everyone outside China it is becoming more synchronized. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters: UPDATE 1-Goldman Sachs raises 2023 China GDP growth forecast to 6% https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-comment/update-1-goldman-sachs-raise...
Jul 11, 2023•18 min•Ep. 518
It's the greatest story no one wants to tell. Money printing. Inflation. Deflation. Interest rates. Crash. The Fed. What is QT? What was QE really? They're all lies and you don't have to take my word for it. I've got all the numbers, their math, and the truth. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre Forbes Advisor: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Explained https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/what-is-quantitative-tightening/ BIS Working Papers No 1105 The demand for govern...
Jul 10, 2023•18 min•Ep. 517
Saudi Arabia extended its #oil production cuts for another month. Given what the Japanese reported for #income, not hard to see why #recession Plus, US bank #credit crunch accelerated at the end of June when #lending fell further and cash cushions rose. #globalrecession Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://b...
Jul 09, 2023•19 min•Ep. 516
