In this episode of Bondcast, Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks discuss the current state of tariffs and trade deals, particularly in relation to the US and Europe. Might markets be underestimating recent developments? They also analyse why US monetary policy and fiscal policy need to find an equilibrium, and explore the impact of demographic changes on debt sustainability. The discussion also covers the outlook for European markets amid global fiscal pressures and the potential for inflationary t...
Jul 11, 2025•20 min
This week, Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Ian VanderHorn discuss recent developments in bond markets, focusing on gilt market volatility, the Bank of England's quantitative tightening, the US's big and beautiful budget bill and the European Central Bank's strategy. The discussion highlights the importance of fiscal credibility, market interpretation of economic data, and the potential impact of global factors on European rates. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes ...
Jul 04, 2025•25 min
This week, Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins, Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks to discuss the recent geopolitical shifts and the impact on markets, particularly in relation to oil prices and investor sentiment. They delve into central bank policies, focusing on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and explore the implications for economic outlook and investment mindsets. They also cover the European landscape, highlighting supply risks and future projections for bond markets and fis...
Jun 26, 2025•20 min
This week Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson in a Bondcast/Currency Exchange crossover to talk about interest rate holds in the UK and US. Were there any clues about the nature of future decisions? Away from the central banks, they also discuss the impact of military tensions on market sentiment. Remember to like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the eco...
Jun 20, 2025•14 min
This week, Joann Spadigam, Giovanni Zanni, and Oriane Parmentier discuss the convergence of Italian and French yields. As the spread nears zero, they analyse underlying economics, political dynamics, consider debt sustainability in both countries and discuss the role that ratings agencies play in the market's evaluation. Remember to subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shap...
Jun 19, 2025•19 min
In this episode, Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks discuss recent economic data in the UK, including inflation and labour market statistics, the implications of the spending review, and expectations for the upcoming Bank of England meeting. They also delve into the gilt market outlook and the impact of Dutch pension reforms on interest rate hedging, and analyse the Fed's perspective on US data. Remember to hit like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series...
Jun 13, 2025•19 min
This week Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks discuss the recent European Central Bank meeting, interest rate projections, and the implications of quantitative tightening in the UK. They also analyse the current economic landscape in the US, highlighting the challenges for the budget deficit in the months and years ahead. Remember to hit like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events...
Jun 06, 2025•19 min
With Japan’s bond markets making headlines, Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks to analyse market sentiment and discuss the broader global impact – including here in the UK. They also discuss the impact of the latest tariff re-de-escalation in the US on Europe, and look ahead to the upcoming ECB meeting in June. Remember to hit like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and even...
May 30, 2025•21 min
With high long-end yields in the UK and the US, Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Stuart Sparks to analyse market sentiment, and discuss why inflation is still so crucial to central bank policy. They also talk about the dynamics of European markets, particularly the relative stability of Italian assets. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping ...
May 23, 2025•20 min
This week Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Paul Robson to discuss the latest news for the UK and US economies. With stronger than expected GDP growth in the UK, and an easing of trade tensions between the US and China, what next for monetary policy and market sentiment on both sides of the Atlantic? They also examine the European economic landscape and the potential effects of fiscal policy and trade negotiations on growth and inflation. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen t...
May 16, 2025•19 min
This week, Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks to talk the hawk following recent Bank of England and Fed interest rate decisions. They also examine the political landscape in Germany and its potential impact on fiscal policy, as well as the European Central Bank's stance in light of current market expectations. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events movin...
May 09, 2025•24 min
In this episode Imogen Bachra and Brian Daingerfield discuss the latest developments in tariffs, the future of Fed chair Jerome Powell, and the recent UK gilt remit revision. They explore how market reactions are influenced by tariff negotiations, the implications of Powell's potential removal, and the Bank of England's approach to monetary policy amid changing economic conditions. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and ...
Apr 25, 2025•32 min
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield, Stuart Sparks and Joann Spadigam to discuss rates and FX markets in the UK, US and Europe. What can we expect next, and where might we go from here in terms of central bank monetary policy decisions? Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. This episode was recorded on 10 April 20...
Apr 11, 2025•38 min
In this crossover episode of Bondcast and Currency Exchange, Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Oriane Parmentier to discuss all things tariffs, and the political situation in France. It's not just markets that are surrounded by uncertainty. How the Fed will dictate interest rates now seems less clear than it did just a few weeks ago, owing to likely higher inflation alongside weaker growth expectations. In France meanwhile, will Marine Le Pen's criminal conviction lead to a crisi...
Apr 04, 2025•26 min
This week Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks discuss the UK Spring Statement, its implications for the UK fiscal situation, and the upcoming tariff announcements affecting Europe. They also analyse the latest profit and productivity data from the US, providing insights into market reactions. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the econo...
Mar 28, 2025•25 min
This week, Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks to discuss recent interest rate decisions at the Bank of England and the Fed. They also talk the upcoming Spring Statement in the UK, fiscal developments in the Euro area, and the Federal Reserve’s announcement regarding quantitative tightening. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shapin...
Mar 21, 2025•31 min
In a week of shifting market sentiment, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Joann Spadigam to discuss rates in the US, Europe and the UK. All eyes are on the Fed and the European Central Bank as they continue to scrutinise data, amid fiscal and economic uncertainties. And it's more wait and see for the Bank of England. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving marke...
Mar 14, 2025•23 min
With International Women's Day upon us, this week's all-female line-up tackles the latest news from rates markets. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates to 2.5%, but it is Europe's revised defence budget that is the real focus for markets. Elsewhere, the Federal Reserve looks to be out of its cutting cycle for 2025 and in the UK what are we to make of modest yield rises? Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our...
Mar 07, 2025•26 min
Welcome to a special edition of Bondcast, where we dive into the geopolitical events shaping markets. Host Imogen Bachra is joined by Scott Livingstone, NatWest Group’s international advisor, and Bondcast regular Joann Spadigam, to discuss the intersection of geopolitics and interest rates. Key topics include the possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal, the future of European defence spending, China’s strategic silence and the Iran factor. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest epi...
Feb 27, 2025•28 min
In this episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by Stuart Sparks and Joann Spadigam to discuss the latest news, events and data shaping rates markets. In Europe they cover the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on European defence spending and the implications of the upcoming German elections. Elsewhere they analyse the Fed's wait-and-see approach, and the current economic data and inflation outlook in the UK. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon a...
Feb 21, 2025•23 min
In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Joanne Spadigam, and Deepika Dayal discuss the latest trends in rates markets, focusing on inflation data, labour market dynamics, and central bank policies in the US and UK. They analyse the implications of recent inflation reports, the Fed's potential reactions, and the Bank of England's stance after last week's interest rate decision. They also cover the recent UK gilt syndication, as well as the economic outlook for the euro area and the European C...
Feb 14, 2025•34 min
In this episode, Imogen Bachra, Brian Daingerfield and Oriane Parmentier discuss the latest developments in rates markets, focusing on trade war dynamics, tariff policies and the implications for markets. They also discuss the recent rate cut by the Bank of England, the evolving economic data landscape in the US, and the fragile French political backdrop. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as it's available and get our views on the big themes...
Feb 07, 2025•35 min
This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk all things rates and, uniquely for the team, how change may be afoot for pensions in the Netherlands and the UK. While the Fed predictably held rates in the US, the ECB predictably cut them in Europe, but what to make of the data supporting these moves? What of terminal rates? If you have a view of where UK rates will be at the end of ’25, please vote in our LinkedIn survey , and we’ll discuss the results in next week’...
Jan 31, 2025•32 min
This week the Bondcast team discusses strong wage inflation data in the UK, which, combined with sluggish output growth, poses a policy dilemma for the Bank of England. Elsewhere they examine recent US data, Donald Trump’s plans and whether the strong economic start for the year will affect the Fed’s terminal rate for the year. Plus, what to expect ahead of the European Central Bank’s upcoming rates decision? Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soo...
Jan 24, 2025•14 min
With soft-ish inflation prints in the UK and beyond, are we at the start of a trend? Separating the signals from the noise this week are host Imogen Bachra, Deepika Dayal and Joann Spadigam, who share news and views on all things rates - including their takes on when we may see further central bank cuts, and what to make of supply dynamics in Europe. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahea...
Jan 17, 2025•27 min
It’s early 2025 and yields are as high as December’s party spirits. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Kevin Cummins and Joann Spadigam to talk UK government bond moves, a cutting-cautious Fed, and a dovish European Central Bank keen to boost economic growth. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy ...
Jan 10, 2025•30 min
Following a 25 basis point cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), host Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins and Ross Walker to dissect the nuance of central bank positions. As we enter 2025, how are markets thinking about key economic data prints? And what are the likely cutting patterns as we proceed further into easing cycles? Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our view...
Dec 13, 2024•16 min
This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by guests Oriane Parmentier and Kevin Cummins to update on recent events shaping rates markets. All eyes, of course, are currently on France, where political turmoil is influencing spreads, while in the euro area what can we expect ahead of a rates decision next week? Finally, they discuss what to expect from US employment data, and how the Fed may react. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're av...
Dec 05, 2024•17 min
In this special edition of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to discuss some key themes from our Year Ahead 2025 report, an in-depth guide to what will be shaping economies and markets over the coming 12 months. Following a year of change at the ballot box, new governments have made political promises and fiscal commitments, with increases to government debt on the horizon. How these decisions affect inflation and therefore terminal bank rates is an open-...
Nov 29, 2024•49 min
This week it’s a podcast crossover, as Imogen Bachra and Brian Daingerfield deliver a Bondcast-meets-Currency Exchange special. High on the agenda is what the magnitude of Donald Trump’s election victory means for currencies and policy rate decisions, both in the near and long-term, as the US faces tax cuts and importers look set for tariffs. Away from the polls, both the Fed and the Bank of England cut rates this week by 25 basis points. To what extent were they both doing so with revised outlo...
Nov 08, 2024•32 min
