Join host Joann Spadigam, and guests Deepika Dayal and Ross Walker as they analyse a busy week for rates markets. In the UK, markets are processing a higher than expected set of Government borrowing needs, so what might this mean for the Bank of England’s terminal rate in 2025? And in the EU, the European Central Bank (ECB) may also look to cut less aggressively next year. Meanwhile, in the US there’s a presidential election/Fed decision mashup for markets to consider, with both long- and short-...
Nov 01, 2024•22 min
This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Giovanni Zanni to discuss rates moves in the US, the UK and Europe. What was an un-callable US presidential race based on polling data has become a tussle in betting markets, with Trump the clear favourite. Meanwhile in the UK, the prospect of new fiscal rules is giving markets something to think about, and in Europe dovish tones are affecting the rates outlook. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the l...
Oct 25, 2024•32 min
The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised few by cutting its base rate by 25 basis points (bp) on Thursday, but was there anything to learn from the messaging around its decision? This week host Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam scrutinise the latest from rates markets and central banks, where data dependence on inflation remains à la mode in the UK and Europe. Lastly, they look ahead to British Chancellor Rachel Reeves' first Budget, and whether the market may be surprised by the overall funding...
Oct 18, 2024•15 min
This week the Bondcast team unpicks higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index data in the US, and shares where they think rates will go from here. In the UK, recent yield increases have met our targets, but how might upcoming data next week affect the curve? They also debrief on the French Budget and look ahead to the next European Central Bank decision on rates. This episode was recorded on 10 October 2024. For any terms used please refer to https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/g...
Oct 11, 2024•32 min
This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam ruminate about rates markets on either side of the Channel. In the UK, markets appear to be waking up to fiscal concerns, and have had to take into account recent remarks from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. Meanwhile, how might the euro area's falling inflation affect future decisions on rates? Finally, to France, where markets are waiting for next week's budget. This episode was recorded on 3 October 2024. For any terms used please refer to ht...
Oct 04, 2024•26 min
This week, host Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Ross Walker to discuss all things rates. In Europe, what is the market's attitude towards October's European Central Bank meeting, and what is happening to spreads in euro-denominated debt? In the UK the Labour conference had analysts pouring over signs for a shift in fiscal policy, while the Fed's focus on employment numbers takes centre stage in the US. This episode was recorded on 26 September 2024. For any terms used please refer ...
Sep 27, 2024•23 min
This week Ross Walker and Kevin Cummins discuss central bank rates decisions in the US and the UK. Markets had all caught up by the time the Fed announced its 50 basis point cut, but remain less certain about further cuts in 2024 and how to interpret employment figures. In the UK, the Bank of England's decision to hold rates was arguably hawkish, but spurred by that familiar bugbear... high services inflation. Looking ahead, how might the UK's fiscal approach affect the terminal rate of this cur...
Sep 20, 2024•22 min
With the cutting cycle among major central banks under way, Giovanni Zanni, Kevin Cummins and Paul Robson talk all things rates markets. Ahead of the much anticipated rate decision at the Fed next week, the mood is very much for a 25 basis point (bp) cut in the US – even if the door is open just enough to allow for 50. In the UK, the next decision on rates seems more finely balanced following a close decision to cut in August. In Europe, a further cut of 25bp on Thursday seemed almost inevitable...
Sep 13, 2024•21 min
In an early ode to autumn, our Bondcast trio predict a season of missed targets and not-so-mellow economic conditions. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to catch up on how late summer’s fruitful developments have affected bond markets, and where they go from here. In the US, all eyes are on jobs numbers and whether the Fed will cut in 50 or 25bp clips. And in France it’s bonjour to incoming PM Michel Barnier… but will his appointment soothe the political ...
Sep 06, 2024•18 min
It’s been a big week for rates markets. Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and Kevin Cummins dig into the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, and whether markets are right to expect a cut as soon as September. Speaking of cuts, we take a closer look at the Bank of England’s decision to trim 25 basis points off the Bank Rate – the first cut in 4 years – and what that means for UK interest rates in the months ahead. Finally, the Bondcast crew dig into recent euro area GDP and in...
Aug 01, 2024•38 min
Joe Biden’s withdrawal from this year’s presidential race means “Veep” Kamala Harris will likely face Donald Trump. How are markets affected? This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to discuss not only US politics, but the run-up to another finely-balanced interest rates decision in the UK and the impact of pension reform in France. This episode was recorded on 25 July 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/ins...
Jul 26, 2024•34 min
Not so good news for the doves on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, as persistent services inflation may yet stall an August rate cut. This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam read the runes on UK and European markets, and share their views on yield curves. This episode was recorded on 18 July 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corpo...
Jul 19, 2024•16 min
This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Kevin Cummins to talk rates news in Europe and the US. With more good data on inflation, might the Fed change its stance on when to reduce rates? Maybe, maybe not, but with more data on the way, it can bide its time. In France, what does the latest round of election news mean for euro spreads? Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. This episode was recorded on 11...
Jul 12, 2024•23 min
While the UK election results lit few fireworks for markets, the same can’t be said of political events elsewhere. This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Joann Spadigam to talk about the fiscal challenge facing the UK, in the US how betting markets view a Joe Biden victory (or drop-out) amid many permutations, and in France what we can expect from the second round of voting in the parliamentary elections. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or liste...
Jul 05, 2024•38 min
Ahead of elections in France and the UK, how are markets pricing in possible outcomes? This week Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam consider how bonds are being affected and what clues markets are looking for. While they’re confident that a Labour victory has been priced in to current spreads, across the channel there is far less certainty about the eventual political outcome. This episode was recorded on 27 June 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corpor...
Jun 28, 2024•14 min
With inflation now at its target, what were the prospects that the Bank of England would cut its base rate? Not much, according to Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam, who this week look at both the reasons for a hold, and whether the Monetary Policy Committee is becoming just a bit more dovish. Hint: it is. Away from the UK, they cover elections in France and Germany’s Q3 funding update. This episode was recorded on 20 June '24. For any terms used please read our glossary . Please view our full di...
Jun 21, 2024•18 min
This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Deepika Dayal and Joann Spadigam to talk all things bonds. From the political backdrop affecting market confidence to the details of dot plots, the trio cover major developments in the US, the UK and the eurozone. This episode was recorded on 13 June '24. For any terms used please read our glossary . Please view our full disclaimer here ....
Jun 14, 2024•35 min
At 25bps the European Central Bank’s (ECB) first interest cut may not have been the deepest, but the ECB is still ahead of the Fed and the Bank of England in its easing cycle. Looking to the prospects of further cuts in the year, Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins go beyond Europe and focus on how the Fed is being guided by data. This episode was recorded on 6 June 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary . Please view our full disclaimer here ....
Jun 07, 2024•22 min
This week Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to discuss major bond markets. High on the agenda is what to expect in the run up to a likely cut in rates next week by the European Central Bank. They also discuss how elections are shaping rates markets and ask why quantitative tightening is a growing topic. This episode was recorded on 30 May 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary . Please view our full disclaimer here ....
May 31, 2024•39 min
This week host Imogen Bachra is again joined by Deepika Dayal and Giovanni Zanni to discuss not just rates, but how political developments in the UK and Europe are affecting markets. In the UK, the starting gun has fired for a July general election, while in the EU, parliamentary elections are also looming. Away from the ballot box, it's starting to feel like monetary Groundhog Day: stronger than expected print data looks likely to keep rates higher for longer. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘fo...
May 24, 2024•22 min
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Deepika Dayal and Giovanni Zanni to discuss all things rates. In the US, how does the Fed's preferred inflation gauge compare with retail sales prints? Elsewhere, markets are contending with some important jobs data in the UK, while in Europe, what could derail a rate cut in June? Very little, it seems. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. This episode was recor...
May 15, 2024•25 min
This week, Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam, and John Briggs discuss how markets are digesting this week’s ‘dovish hold’ from the Bank of England, and the pace of UK monetary policy easing in the months ahead. They also share their thoughts on monetary policy divergence across regions and the impact on bond markets. Remember to hit ''follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button so it’s easier for others to find. And if you have any questi...
May 09, 2024•26 min
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Kevin Cummins and Joann Spadigam to discuss how major central banks are approaching monetary policy. In the US, the Fed held rates and expectations for a cut are further adapting to strong inflation data. The picture is quite different in Europe, while in the UK, all eyes are on the Bank of England's next meeting. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re available. This episod...
May 03, 2024•32 min
This week Imogen Bachra, John Briggs and Joann Spadigam discuss market surprises, with strong inflation in the US, strong purchasing manager sentiment in Europe and a strong suggestion from the Bank of England's Huw Pill that UK rates may not fall before June. Aside from the immediate figures and updates, they discuss supply, long-term debt qualms and who's led by the Fed. Remember to hit 'follow' so you can listen to our latest episodes as soon as they’re available – and hit the ‘like’ button s...
Apr 25, 2024•25 min
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by John Briggs and Joann Spadigam to discuss bond market movements. With scant evidence of grand disinflation in the US, the panel ask whether the Fed may cut rates at all this year, and what the markets may price in. In the UK, what should we make of recent inflation data which contained upside surprises, while in Europe, how acceptable are Italian and French national debt levels? Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the la...
Apr 18, 2024•30 min
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to pick over recent developments in bond markets. Much of the focus this week was on developments in the US, where higher than expected inflation is thwarting the Fed’s scope to cute rate this summer (we’ve revised our forecasts). Quite what this means for policies in Europe and the UK is uncertain, but divergence is the watchword. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of...
Apr 12, 2024•21 min
This week host Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins review their expectations for central bank rate cuts later this year. While economic data have surprised in the US, they don't think it's enough to dramatically change the Fed's position. But with more data on the way, it's a case of wait and see. In Europe, the broad inflation news is in line with the European Central Bank's expectations, and an April cut still seems unlikely. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to t...
Apr 04, 2024•20 min
This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Kevin Cummins to talk about the latest developments in the US, the UK and Europe. With rates on hold, however, there is still lots for market participants to mull over from recent central bank updates, as the risks of inflation persist. June is still on the table for the Fed's first rate cut, while at the Bank of England no member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate hike. From Europe, we hear about what clients have to sa...
Mar 21, 2024•28 min
This week Imogen Bachra and Jan Nevruzi dissect US inflation figures and look ahead to a Fed meeting that promises an update on Quantitative Tightening policy, among other things. Will it be enough to upset the relative calm of late and move markets? They also analyse what may happen next week in the UK and look at whether the European Central Bank is still expected to cut rates in June. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon ...
Mar 14, 2024•26 min
This week Imogen Bachra, Joann Spadigam and Jan Nevruzi share key takeaways from recent events in the UK, Europe and the US. At the European Central Bank, did new inflation figures give a better indication of when it might cut rates? In the UK, a predictable Spring Budget yielded little drama for markets, while in the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress. Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Bondcast as soon as they’re a...
Mar 07, 2024•26 min
