This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Oriane Parmentier and Stuart Sparks unpack the key macro themes dominating fixed income markets following NatWest’s Official Institutions Conference in Edinburgh. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continuing to drive market volatility, the discussion shifts beyond the headlines to explore how investors are thinking about inflation, growth, central bank reaction functions and fiscal risks across the US, Euro area and UK. Key themes discussed US: A...
May 29, 2026•44 min
In this episode of Bondcast, host Imogen Bachra is joined by global market specialist Ian VanderHorn to unpack the growing political and fiscal risks shaping UK and US rates markets – where 5% yields are now a thing. Key points: * UK political instability following poor Labour local election results * Risks of a Labour leadership challenge and implications for gilt markets * Why markets may be underpricing future UK borrowing * US tariff refund developments and worsening fiscal dynamics * Inflat...
May 15, 2026•29 min
In this special episode of Bondcast, we replay NatWest's live broadcast fireside chat and Q&A with Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, who was joined on stage by Imogen Bachra, NatWest's Head of Economics and Markets Strategy. Recorded on 14 May 2026.
May 14, 2026•51 min
This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by Oriane Parmentier to talk about rates in the UK and the euro area. They focus on: - The return of market optimism despite geopolitical risk - ECB outlook and how the market is pricing multiple hikes - Bank of England pricing, as well as fiscal and political risks in the UK - Client sentiment on rate rises in major economies - What to watch next week This episode was recorded on 7 May 2026. You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple ...
May 08, 2026•29 min
This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their analysis of three central bank decisions to hold rates. Key points: 1. Federal Reserve rate hike prospects and dissenting opinions 2. European Central Bank’s conditional hawkish stance 3. The Bank of England’s cautious outlook and market expectations This episode was recorded on 30 April 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as the...
May 01, 2026•25 min
This week, host Imogen Bachra is joined by economists Kevin Cummins and Giovanni Zanni to talk through their expectations ahead of three imminent central bank meetings. Key points: 1. US economic data and consumer resilience 2. UK inflation and labor market dynamics 3. Fed, BoE and ECB policy forecasts 4. UK political risks and fiscal policy 5. Ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on markets This episode was recorded on 23 April 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest ...
Apr 24, 2026•32 min
This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier unpack why easing geopolitical tensions have lifted risk assets – while rates remain more cautious. They explore the growing disconnect between equities and yields, with US data and Fed expectations back in focus as de-escalation shifts attention away from geopolitics. In the UK, the story looks different: persistent inflation pressures, fiscal risks, and gilt market dynamics suggest yields may stay higher for longer. Th...
Apr 17, 2026•37 min
In this week’s Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Ian Vanderhorn, and Oriane Parmentier talk about the delicate ceasefire between the US and Iran and explore the potential impacts on rates markets, inflation forecasts, and central bank policy expectations in the US, the UK, and Europe. This episode was recorded on 9 April 2026. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/cor...
Apr 10, 2026•42 min
In this week’s episode of Bondcast, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy Imogen Bachra shares edited highlights from NatWest’s recent client webinar focused on the intersection of geopolitics, economic sentiment and market implications. Joined by Scott Livingstone (NatWest’s International Advisor) and Ross Walker (Global Head of Economics) the discussion covers the ongoing Middle East conflict, its economic impact, and how markets and policymakers may respond. Key discussion points: - Current ...
Apr 02, 2026•32 min
Despite fears that the war in the Middle East will drive inflation, central banks in the US, the UK and Europe held rates this week. To discuss why, Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) is joined by Ian VanderHorn (Economics and Market Strategy) and Giovanni Zanni (Chief Euro Area Economist) to dissect the latest policy decisions, and how their forecasts are changing. This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwe...
Mar 20, 2026•21 min
This week, host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics & Markets Strategy) is joined by Ian Vanderhorn (Macroeconomics Strategist) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist) to provide a comprehensive update on recent geopolitical swings. They focus on higher oil prices, what this means for inflation, and how bond markets have reacted. Lastly, they share their expectations ahead of central bank decisions next week in the UK, Europe and the US. This episode was recorded on 11 March 2026. Rem...
Mar 11, 2026•32 min
This week’s combined episode of Currency Exchange and Bondcast focuses on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impacts on currency and rates markets. This episode features edited highlights from a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, featuring host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) and guests Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) and Paul Robson (Co-Head of G10FX Strategy). They discussed: - Management of ammunition and defence resources by regional players. - Political...
Mar 05, 2026•20 min
In this crossover episode of Bondcast and its sister show Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to explore the recent Supreme Court decision on US tariffs, its implications for FX and rates market dynamics, and the future of tariff policy. This episode was recorded on 25 February 2026. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and sha...
Feb 27, 2026•23 min
In this episode of Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn and market specialists Paul Robson and Oriane Parmentier discuss the passing week’s developments in rates markets. In the UK, there was a sizeable amount of data to process, most notably on inflation. But how is the market reacting? Elsewhere, they discuss rising tensions off the coast of Iran, the price of oil and French bond market resilience. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're availab...
Feb 20, 2026•25 min
In this episode of Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn and market specialists Paul Robson and Oriane Parmentier discuss the latest developments in rates markets. They focus on political uncertainties in the UK, the implications of recent job market reports in the US and the Euro area’s supply situation. You can also find this episode of Bondcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on ...
Feb 13, 2026•21 min
In this week’s Bondcast, Ian Vanderhorn is joined by Oriane Parmentier and Paul Robson to discuss policy updates in the US, the UK and Europe. The Bondcasters kick off this week’s podcast with a review of the Bank of England’s ‘dovish hold’ on 5 February and take a closer look at the drivers behind recent upward drift in yields. The ECB followed the Bank of England with a rate hold of its own this week – and Oriane digs into what this could mean for the trajectory for rates in the months ahead. ...
Feb 06, 2026•20 min
In this week’s Bondcast, Joann Spadigam is joined by Stuart Sparks and Paul Robson to discuss policy updates in the US, the UK and Europe. Following a much-predicted 25 basis point cut by the Fed, there is still plenty to ponder on US monetary policy going into 2026. And with the Bank of England expected to also cut rates in December, how matched are the two monetary cycles? In Europe, of course, the story is quite different: a glut of supply and rumblings of a rate hike. Remember to hit subscri...
Dec 12, 2025•18 min
In this special edition of Bondcast, host Tim Phillips is joined by Paul Robson, Joann Spadigam and Stuart Sparks to ask what lies ahead in bond markets in 2026 – a year where the focus will be squarely on the Federal Reserve. They explore the challenges of elevated sovereign issuance, shifting bond demand, and the global repercussions of fiscal and monetary policy – looking at the UK, the US and Europe in the process. What might steepen curves, and what indicators should we monitor in 2026? Fin...
Nov 24, 2025•27 min
In this week’s Bondcast, Joann Spadigam is joined by Deepika Dayal and Paul Robson to discuss the outlook for next week’s interest rate decision from the Bank of England, as well as the implications of fiscal policy on the UK’s monetary stance. They alsoshare insights from the recent Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a cut, and the European Central Bank's decision to hold rates. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available ...
Oct 31, 2025•22 min
In this week’s Bondcast, host Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderdorn to discuss rates markets. They analyse the UK’s latest inflation figures and prospects for base rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance during government shutdown, and Europe, where inflation is at target, but France’s credit rating has taken a knock. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big the...
Oct 24, 2025•25 min
This week, host Joann Spadigam and guests explore a change in the fortunes of fixed-income assets, led by gilts and comments from the Bank of England on monetary policy. They also delve into the political landscape in France, highlighting the challenges faced by the new government during the budget season. Plus ça change. Finally, they address the supply-demand dynamics in European markets, emphasising the role of overseas buyers and the concerns regarding duration mismatch in bond issuance. Rem...
Oct 17, 2025•19 min
With fresh turmoil in the French parliament, this week's host Ian Vanderhorn is joined by guest Oriane Parmentier to talk about what might happen in the days ahead. They also analyse the likely path of OATs and how markets may react to further news. Lastly, they discuss the government shutdown in the US. This episode was recorded on 9 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossa...
Oct 10, 2025•13 min
This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to analyse what the US Government shutdown means for markets, and the data they rely on. They also delve into the political dynamics behind the shutdown, and the reaction in markets. But it's not all about the US... they also focus on the impact of pension fund transitions in Europe and what this means for bond markets there. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and...
Oct 03, 2025•17 min
In this episode of Bondcast, host Ian Vanderhorn and guests discuss recent monetary policy decisions made by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve. And while the policy rates delivered few surprises, there is still much for markets to think about. Paul Robson provides insights into the BoE's interest rate hold and the adjustments in quantitative tightening, while Ian analyses the Fed's recent rate cut, its forward guidance, and whether markets are in line. Finally, Oriane Parmentier ...
Sep 19, 2025•20 min
This week host Joann Spadigam is joined by Oriane Parmentier and Ian Vanderhorn to discuss key economic indicators and political developments affecting major markets. They focus on the ECB's dovish stance, challenges in France's budget negotiations, the potential for snap elections, Fitch's rating review of France and the current state of the US labour market and inflation. They also discuss expectations for Fed and Bank of England meetings, highlighting the implications of these factors on inte...
Sep 12, 2025•21 min
As the Bondcast team returns from summer, they discuss recent movements in rates markets, focusing on fiscal concerns in the UK, expectations for the upcoming Autumn Budget, the outlook for the US economy and Federal Reserve policy, political risks in France, and expectations for the European Central Bank's next meeting. To read Oriane's take on French political risk, click https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/political-standoff-in-france-scenarios-and-market-implications.html Rem...
Sep 05, 2025•28 min
It wasn't the first cut in the cycle, nor at 25 basis points was it the deepest, but there was still plenty to talk about following the Bank of England's (BoE's) reduction to the Base Rate. In this episode, Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderhorn to discuss a surprisingly hawkish cut by the BoE, and what impact recent payrolls data in the US might have on the Federal Reserve. They also address the economic outlook for Europe, particularly political risks emanating from France....
Aug 11, 2025•19 min
This week Joann Spadigam, Kevin Cummins and Ian Vanderhorn focus on the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates in the US. They analyse the stance on interest rates, inflation and labour market conditions, as well as the US Treasury's borrowing plans. Lastly they discuss European bond curves and share their views on whether the Bank of England will cut rates next week. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our view...
Aug 01, 2025•23 min
This week, it's all about central banks. Host Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson and Deepika Dayal to discuss the ECB's recent interest rate hold, expectations for the upcoming US Federal Reserve rate decision and the next Bank of England monetary policy decision in August. They also talk trade and delve into US labour data. Remember to subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets...
Jul 25, 2025•19 min
Joann Spadigam, Paul Robson and Ian Vanderhorn take a closer look at the latest UK data and the potential impact on the Bank of England’s thinking around rate cuts and quantitative tightening. They also dig into the latest US inflation print and shifts in US trade policy, unpack the market whiplash around media reports about Fed Chair Powell’s fate, and look ahead to the forthcoming European Central Bank meeting. This episode was recorded on 17 July 2025. For any terms used please refer to this ...
Jul 18, 2025•21 min
