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American Soccer Analysis

American Soccer Analysiswww.americansocceranalysis.com

American Soccer Analysis is a podcast that covers American Soccer from an analytical perspective founded in the belief that soccer is best understood not by fat old men in smoky rooms, but by people adept at Excel spreadsheets.

Episodes

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: The NWSL Championship Deep Dive, with Orlando Pride GM Haley Carter

The Orlando Pride are preparing to play the biggest game club history on Saturday, the culmination of a process that began more than two years ago. Team vice president and GM Haley Carter came on to talk about the journey the team has taken under her and Seb Hines's leadership, what philosophy they apply to every decision, and what the 2024 Pride represent, win or lose on Saturday. This was a good'un! Subscribe to our Patreon and get all of our exclusive bonus content for only $6/month! Art by E...

Nov 21, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: The NWSL Semifinals Delivered the Goods

Well there you have it! The Washington Spirit will play the Orlando Pride at CPKC Stadium in Kansas City on Saturday for the NWSL Championship. Each semifinal that got them there were scintillating contests, filled with drama, individual heroics, and masterful team play. How did the Spirit and Pride get past Gotham and the Current?  We will be in Kansas City for the NWSL Championship! Come join us at Johnny's Tavern P&L in Kansas City on Friday night and have a drink with us.  Don'...

Nov 19, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Playoffs Recap -- The Quarterfinals Were Etched in Chalk

The top four go in as favorites, and the top four leave as semifinalists. There were no upsets in the NWSL quarterfinals, as Orlando, Washington, Gotham, and Kansas City all moved on. Some games were unprecedented blowouts, like the Pride's demolition of the Red Stars (0:57). Others were tighter affair than anticipated, as the Current's defeat of the Courage proved to be (12:49). The final two match-ups were dreary, attritional affairs until they very much weren't, as the Spirit got past a resil...

Nov 12, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Playoffs Preview, Part II

In Part 2 of our NWSL quarterfinals preview, we take a look at Sunday's doubleheader. According to one projection model, Bay FC actually have a decent chance to upset the Washington Spirit. Will their new-look midfield and Racheal Kundananji's heroics puncture Washington's injury-riddled squad?  The Portland Thorns are all good vibes right now, having won two of their final three games, including an emphatic victory in Christine Sinclair's final game at Providence Park. But are those vibes ...

Nov 06, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Playoffs Preview, Part I

The playoffs are set! The top four finished the season strong and look like they'll make it to the semifinals with ease. Or will they? The guys preview all four quarterfinal matchups, and wonder where we could see upsets. Do Bay FC have what it takes to get past an injury- and suspension-rattled Washington Spirit? Could the Portland Thorns put some payback on Gotham FC after last year's playoff defeat? Do the Chicago Red Stars have any hope at all? And is the Kansas City Current's match against ...

Nov 05, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: A USWNT Round-Up, and Our NWSL Awards Ballots!

Then, they break down their picks for the NWSL awards slate. Most of these are no-brainers, but they make a case for some down-ballot candidates, followed by an in-depth discussion of how to approach Defender of the Year.  Join our Patreon for only $6/month to get all of our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs...

Oct 29, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

NWSL Week 25: Louisville, Portland, and all the Playoff Scenarios Fit to Print

Racing Louisville grabbed all three points against the Portland Thorns thanks to a late corner header from Taylor Flint. Their playoff hopes are still alive, but is it too little too late? The guys cap off the episode with this playoff six-pointer (41:20). Before that, they run through playoff scenarios for the top four (1:01), ruminate on the two dead rubber matches between Angel City and the Utah Royals (20:40), as well as the Seattle Reign and Houston Dash (27:48). Some quick lamentations for...

Oct 22, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

NWSL Week 24: "Stop Laughing, The Chicago Red Stars Suck!!!" And Other Ravings of a Madman

The Chicago Red Stars own one of the worst xG differentials in league history. Only the Utah Royals have played worse in total this season. But Chicago just clinched a playoff berth, and look poised to finish the year in sixth place on a mere 1.3 points per game. Only four other teams have ever finished sixth or higher with that points total. Can it really just be luck? Is their low-volume, high-efficiency attack and defense sustainable once they face better teams in the postseason? The guys dis...

Oct 15, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 23 -- The Portland Thorns, Racing Louisville, and the Dangling Thread of the Playoff Line

We have got some things to cover, here! The guys get into the news of Angel City's fines and suspensions for salary cap violations, the firing of former Houston Dash head coach Fran Alonso, the absurdity of the Chicago Red Stars conceding at least three xG for the second time in three weeks, Bay FC's four-minute meltdown, and the Orlando Pride's historic Shield win.  Then, it's on to the main events. Portland has been one of the worst teams in the NWSL since the end of the Olympics break. R...

Oct 08, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 22 -- Bay FC are Doing the Damn Thing

A scrappy 1-0 victory on the road to the Seattle Reign may not look like much, but Bay FC are creeping closer and closer to a playoff berth, only a few months removed from looking like one of the worst teams in the NWSL. The guys dig into all of the ways the team has managed to improve since early June, from trusting new players to Albertin Montoya reimagining the team's tactical vision. It's wild.  Still not a member of our Patreon ? Sign up today for only $6/month to get all of our exclus...

Oct 01, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 21 -- Kansas City Current Remind Everyone Who They Are

Oh, did you forget that the Current can gut your favorite team like a fish? After a few games of sputtering defensive performance, KC's new back line is locked in and Temwa Chawinga is, well, Temwa Chawinga. Their 3-0 battering of the Washington Spirit was a bit lucky, but was also a scary proposition for any team that will face Kansas City in the playoffs. The guys break it all down.  Plus, xG shenanigans with the San Diego Wave! Officiating questions with Angel City and the Portland Thorn...

Sep 25, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 20 -- The Orlando-KC Staredown, and Portland's Continued Implosion

We've got two games to cover this week! One was the matchup of the weekend on paper, but fizzled out to a 0-0 draw between the Pride and Current. The other ended up with significant playoff implications, as the Red Stars snatched a 1-0 road win against the Thorns and shored up their postseason odds, while Portland continued their freefall. What can they do to right the ship? Is Chicago's season-long overperformance about to pay off?  Subscribe to our Patreon for only $6/month and get all of...

Sep 18, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 19 -- Au Revoir Alex Morgan, Bonjour Bay FC!

Alex Morgan has retired. As yet another titan of the sport walks into the sunset, the guys reflect on what Morgan's career truly meant beyond the goals and trophies.  Then, after rounding up NWSL results across the weekend, they dive into Bay's 1-0 defeat of Racing Louisville. Have Abby Dahlkemper and Penelope Hocking helped Bay find the answers? Is Albertin Montoya finally getting the team to play like he envisioned? How much does this result and performance portend for Louisville's playof...

Sep 11, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 18 -- A Walk through Gotham with Jenna Tonelli!

The Orlando Pride continued their unbeaten streak on Sunday, taking down Gotham FC 2-0 after a monsoon nearly flooded Inter&Co Stadium. Gotham was unable to gain any separation from its peers in the top 4. But does it portend anything serious? Eric and Evan talk to Gotham reporter Jenna Tonelli about Gotham's performance, the magic of Ella Stevens, and how dangerous Gotham will be come playoff time.  Sign up for our Patreon for only $6/month! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's B...

Sep 03, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: NWSL Week 17 -- Your Spirit Has a Powerful Current Running from Washington to Kansas City

Jonatan Giráldez has officially entered the NWSL chat. The Washington Spirit took down the Kansas City Current 4-1, and for a brief second, one had to wonder if the wheels were coming off of the most dominant squad in the league. This game had everything. Six defenders to handle Debinha and Chawinga! Otherworldly finishing from Trinity Rodman! A new center back pairing falling out of a clown car! Adrianna Franch living up to her new reputation! It's all here, and the guys break it all down. Welc...

Aug 27, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Emergency Pod -- The NWSL's Historic New Labor Agreement

The NWSL Players Association has just signed a new collective bargaining agreement, which may be one of the most historically significant labor deals in sports history. The elimination of the draft, universal guaranteed contracts and free agency, player consent for trades, and massive increases in minimum salaries without corresponding max salaries all give serious power to the players. What did that they have to give up to ownership, and what might that mean come 2028 when a new media rights de...

Aug 22, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

The Big Midseason NWSL Transfer Round-Up!

The NWSL is back, baby!!! After six agonizing weeks away, the stretch run kicks off on Friday. A massive amount of transfer activity has gone down in that time. Eric and Evan highlight some of their faves and not-so-faves.  Could Delphine Cascarino help push the San Diego Wave into playoff contention? How does Carson Pickett fit into the Orlando Pride lineup? Are the Chicago Red Stars playoff locks thanks to Ludmila and Julia Grosso? Can Jess Carter adapt to the league's pace? Will Alana Co...

Aug 20, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap -- The USWNT Paved the Parisian Streets with Gold

369 days after the USWNT crashed out of the World Cup Round of 16, they put those demons to bed, winning the gold medal at the 2024 Summer Olympics. The team managed to weather the worst half of football they had played all tournament to wear down Brazil until Mallory Swanson took Korbin Albert's through ball and ripped the Brazilian defense to pieces. Some heroics from Alyssa Naeher and the usual shutdown defense from Naomi Girma helped the US grab their first gold medal in 12 years. Now, the r...

Aug 12, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap -- The USWNT are Exhausted, but are On to the Gold Medal Game

The players were dead on their feet. Lindsey Horan could barely ping a pass toward the German goal. But Naomi Girma led the defense to another sterling performance, Sophia Smith threaded a wonder goal past Ann-Katrin Berger, and the USWNT will face Brazil for the gold medal on Saturday. Was there anything besides heat and fatigue that slowed the US attack down? Can they avoid Spain's fate against Brazil in the semifinal? Is Girma the undisputed best center back in the world? Eric and Evan ponder...

Aug 07, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap -- The USWNT Struggles but Moves On to the Semifinals

It was brutal, but perhaps it was necessary. The USWNT scraped past Japan in the Olympics quarterfinals thanks to an extra-time wonder strike from Trinity Rodman, setting up a semifinal rematch with Germany. Were the players just too tired? Is Emma Hayes's focus on chemistry over fresh legs about to blow up in her face? Was the Japanese defense just too good for the US? Thankfully, the US's defense was even better. Eric and Evan get into all of it and preview the semifinal via Germany's penalty-...

Aug 04, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap--The USWNT Win Group B, Face Japan in the Quarterfinals

The USWNT beat Australia 2-1 in the final round of the Olympics group stage, topping the group and heading to the quarterfinals to play Japan on Saturday. Despite all the hand-wringing about the US heading into the tournament, they finished group play with the best goal differential the best non-penalty xG differential, the most shots taken in the box, and the most touches in the box. (There's also the small matter of Spain as the only other team to win all three of their group games.) How did t...

Aug 01, 2024Transcript available on Metacast

EXPECTED OWN GOALS: Olympics Recap -- The USWNT Fly Through Germany in the Balmy Marseille Air

Bang! The USWNT rained goals on Germany in a 4-1 victory, their biggest result against a FIFA top-10 side in six years. A Sophia Smith brace, a Mallory Swanson tap-in, and a Lynn Williams dagger made Germany look far worse than their world ranking would indicate. But was it all bread and circuses for Emma Hayes's side? Eric and Evan examine the tactical imbalance that allowed the Germans to find seams on the counter--and the ways the US exploited their opponent's resulting gaps in the other dire...

Jul 29, 2024Transcript available on Metacast
American Soccer Analysis podcast - Listen or read transcript on Metacast