Rationally Speaking #214 - Anthony Aguirre on "Predicting the future of science and tech, with Metaculus"
Aug 06, 2018•50 min•Transcript available on Metacast Episode description
This episode features physicist Anthony Aguirre discussing Metaculus, the site he created to crowd-source accurate predictions about science and technology. For example, will SpaceX land on Mars by 2030? Anthony and Julia discuss details such as: why it's useful to have predictions on questions like these, how to measure Metaculus' accuracy, why Anthony chose not to run it like a traditional prediction market, and how to design incentives to reward good forecasters.
