Episode description

(0:00) Ray Dalio joins Friedberg!

(0:50) The current US fiscal situation

(6:23) Breaking down "The Big Debt Cycle," a potential US debt spiral, and the impact on real wealth

(24:54) USD vs other currencies and assets, best hedges against the dollar

(33:20) Portfolio construction, how China increases risk for US AI companies, why this market reminds Ray of 1998-1999

(41:45) How the US can avoid a debt crisis

(53:29) DOGE, Trump, and AI's greatest risk

(1:05:31) Chances of conflict between the US and China

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Referenced in the show:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/treasury-confirms-calendar-year-2024-deficit-tops-20-trillion

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bstne1l09npgdk1s5yww/corner-office/ray-dalio-makes-his-exit-from-bridgewater

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-september-2024

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2024/11/08/fed-cut-interest-rates-so-why-do-mortgage-rates-keep-climbing

https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/fomc-recap-december-2024

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/a-global-bond-sell-off-is-deepening-as-hopes-for-multiple-fed-rate-cuts-fizzle.html