It was 2020 and plant-based meats were hot. Sales were up 45% that year and expectations were high. The industry set its sights on performing as well as plant-based beverages, which had reached about a 15% dollar share of the U.S. cow-based milk market at the time. In the $300 billion U.S. meat market, a 15% share would be a massive $45 billion prize.
But then, starting in 2021, plant-based meats hit a wall. U.S. sales began three consecutive years of declines. Headlines described plant-based meats as “bleeding” and “just another fad”.
So what happened?
In this episode, Shayle talks to John Baumgartner, managing director of equity research for food and healthy living at Mizuho Securities. He explains the major factors that led to the decline—and why he’s still bullish on the long-term growth of the industry. They cover topics like:
Why the plant-based beverage category is so different from plant-based meats
Major factors in sales, including the Covid-19 bounce, flatlining household penetration, and inflation
The under-no-circumstances crowd that will not consider plant-based meats
Positive indicators for growth potential from other markets, such as Taiwan and western Europe
Improvements in taste, mouthfeel, health, and price that could reinvigorate the industry
Recommended Resources:
Mizuho Securities: Plant-Based Food Market Overview & Outlook
Good Food Institute: 2023 outlook: The state of the plant-based meat category
Deloitte: Plant-based meat gets a reality check
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Reviving the stagnant plant based meat market | Catalyst with Shayle Kann podcast - Listen or read transcript on Metacast
