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Mark Dow has had experience in the global monetary system, having worked at the IMF, as an advisor to three Presidents, and at many central banks around the world. But he thinks that generally, monetary plumbing is given too much credit for the gyrations of asset prices and economic outcomes. He joins Forward Guidance to share why. Recorded on April 9, 2024.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:39) How Much Does Monetary Policy Actually Matter?
(07:27) The Fed Matters In A Crisis
(12:11) Psychology Impacts Stock Market Valuations More Than Interest Rates
(16:41) ...But Interest Rate Fall Stimulates Housing Mortgage Credit Creation, Doesn't It?
(20:48) Mark Argues Mortgage Spread Not Very Affected By Quantitative Easing (QE) - Jack Pushes Back
(26:11) VanEck Ad
(27:13)
(30:51) QE's Impact on Bond Yields And The Difficulty Of Determining What Is Cause And What Is Effect
(39:39) The Wealth Effect Has Been Very Weak
(41:36) Mark Argues The Bulk Of Inflation Was Caused By Transitory Supply-Side Factors
(51:29) Federal Reserve's Role In U.S. Treasury Market
(58:54) Mark's View On The Narrative That Fed Will Monetize U.S. Fiscal Deficits
(01:00:51) Gold and Real Rates
(01:08:04) Changes In Monetary System Since 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC)
(01:14:51) Fed Balance Sheet Policy DOES Matter For Institutional Fixed-Income Portfolios Sensitive To A Few Basis Points In Bond Spreads
(01:18:49) Mark's Market Views: Is He Still Bullish On Stocks?
(01:21:34) Mark's Trading Framework Using Technicals and Behavioral Economics
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mark Dow: The Bears Are Making Stuff Up About Fed/Treasury Plumbing To Excuse The Fact That They Were Wrong | Forward Guidance podcast - Listen or read transcript on Metacast
