Where The Next Big Bond Trade Is Hiding | Harley Bassman
Oct 02, 2024•50 min•Transcript available on Metacast Episode description
In this episode, Harley Bassman joins the show to discuss what the bond market is pricing, the Fed’s master plan, and if we can see a second wave of inflation. We also delve into the MBS market, the impact of immigration on the labor market, credit spreads, and much more. Enjoy!
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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: JAUVIN30 for a 30% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:54 Implied Forward Rates
03:46 Bond Market Pricing A Recession
07:08 Yield Curve Control & Forward Guidance
11:22 Fair Value of Long Yields
13:54 Duration, Credit, & Convexity
18:11 MBS Spread vs IG Spread
23:21 The Real Risk-Free Rate
26:11 The Fed's Master Plan
29:43 Permissionless Ad
30:22 Can We See a Second Wave of Inflation?
35:19 Labor Market & Immigration
38:10 Are Credit Spreads Fairly Priced?
40:35 Small Caps & Floating-Rate Debt
42:03 Market Opportunities
44:33 Equities & Rates
47:59 Learn More About Harley's Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
