Episode description
It’s a contrarian’s dream come true.Contrarian investors like to buck the trend. They buy when other investors are selling and sell when others are buying.
Last week, Bank of America (BofA) delivered a contrarian’s dream. BofA’s monthly survey of 225 global asset managers, who are responsible for $645 billion in assets under management, showed the managers were almost fully invested, according to CNBC.
The survey showed asset managers’, “…cash levels at the lowest since March 2013, global equity allocations at a 10-year high, and a record number of respondents we are taking a ‘higher than normal’ level of risk,” according to Randall Forsyth of Barron’s.
The optimism of these Asset managers’ clearly reflects central banks’ monetary policies, governments’ fiscal stimulus programs, and positive signs of economic recovery.
- Central bank actions are supporting low interest rates. Low interest rates encourage economic growth by making money inexpensive for companies and individuals to borrow. In the United States, the real (adjusted for inflation) 10-year Treasury yield finished last week at -0.80 percent, according to the U.S. Treasury.
- Government stimulus is flooding world markets with cash. “Although percentage cash levels held by investment managers are falling, they are not falling fast enough to keep up the rapid expansion of money still flooding the system…U.S. household savings at the end of 2020 were still almost $1 trillion above pre-COVID levels…,” according to Mike Dolan Reuters.
- Economic recovery is gaining steam. While the virus continues to be a risk, last week much of the economic data in the United States was positive. Retail sales exceeded expectations and manufacturing held steady, according to Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s. Reuters says Economic Growth is forecast to be about 6 percent in 2021.
- The Commerce Department reported that 4Q20 GDP rose at a rate of 4.1%. Consumers did their part in a big way, contributing 60.8% of core demand (personal consumption expenditures, equipment and intellectual property spending, housing, exports and government expenditures). This is in line with the 10-year average. It is our thesis that U.S. GDP will recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021, but sectors will most likely recover at different paces.
- Yesterday Stocks fell on Thursday morning, reversing Wednesday’s gains, following mixed earnings reports and new employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 730,000 for the week ended February 20, down from a revised 841,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 825,000.
Yield Curve Widening
Interest rates at the long end of the yield curve have risen sharply and we anticipate they will head modestly higher over the next few quarters. The curve (2yr/10yr spread) has steepened from 82 basis points at the start of the year to 145 basis points. While the Fed will focus more on unemployment than inflation, and has pledged to keep short-term rates low, it has less influence over the long end of the yield curve. Bond investors at the long end of the yield curve are concerned inflation may spiral out of control, especially if Congress rolls out another massive spending plan. The rising long-term interest rates and steepening yield curve hold several implications for investors. One, higher rates raise valuations on equities, and this has caused the stock sell-off over the past few days. But the steeper yield curve also signals the U.S. economy may be rebounding sharply in a few months. And the wider spread between short-term and long-term bonds is beneficial for most of the Financial Services sector.
Technical Perspective:
The stock market had a solid washout on Thursday, unlike Monday when growth got hit and value did okay. Net advances versus decliners yesterday totaled -2,468, the worst since 10/28, when it hit -2,566. Looking at prior washout days (those with at least 2,000 more decliners) and going back to May, most of the days were near (within a few days) or right at the bottom. During February and March, we obviously saw a cluster of terrible breadth days as the decline was relentless. Major indices found support on Thursday at the spots they hit during the first 20 minutes of Tuesday’s shellacking. At the day’s low, the Nasdaq again found support from the 65-day EMA. In addition, a parallel channel trendline (based on the top of the channel since early November and drawn off the low from 11/2) was hit perfectly in the late going. The QQQs also found support from that parallel trendline as well as a 38.2% retracement of the rally since 11/2. The S&P 500 again fell right to the bottom of the channel that has been in place since November, and almost hit the 50- day simple and exponential averages. The low of the day almost retraced a common 61.8% of the rally off the 1/29 low, and that FIBO retracement came in at 3,792. The five-day EMA crossed below the 13-day EMA by about six points; if that does not reverse, we could see some more trouble in the near term. The S&P 400 bottomed right at the lower trendline of its bull channel and right at the 21-day EMA. The Russell 2000 (IWM) declined to its parallel channel trendline as well as its prior breakout area.