Episode description

In the latest episode of “Talking Trade,” Armada Corporate Intelligence Chief Economist Chris Kuehl discusses a recent shift in the global economic outlook. 

“If people were listening to the commentary even a few weeks ago, it was pretty doom and gloom,” Kuehl said. “It was looking at 2023 as a year of serious recession, maybe starting in first and second quarter and extending through the year.” 

But in the past several weeks, several new data points have helped to challenge that assumption, Kuehl explained. For one, he noted some information suggests global inflation had peaked in November or December of 2022. 

“We started to see a decline in commodity prices, we started to see a decline in shipping rates,” he said. “We saw a little bit of a decline in factory gate pricing — not like it’s gotten back to where we were prior to the pandemic, but considerably less than what we saw earlier in the year. And less than what had been anticipated for the coming year.” 

He also discusses expectations for China’s role in the global industrial community, touching on the country’s COVID-19 response, competition from India and other Asian nations, and more.