Episode description

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.

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In this episode, we discuss:

• How Trend Following differs to momentum
• Avoiding the need to make predictions
• The Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategies
• ARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performance
• The similarities between Trend Following and options
• How to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’
• Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clients
• The “Moscow Rules"

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:02  – Macro recap from Niels

04:39 – Weekly review of performance

23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?

28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk 

42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?

47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum

01:00:58 – Molecules of prices

01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to...