Episode description
Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Nicky on LinkedIn
Episode TimeStamps:
02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science
09:42 - The major players in the energy markets
12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial
18:43 - Forecasting the flow
25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas?
27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets
30:22 - Risk considerations
32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action
34:28 - Measuring demand
36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research
39:46 - Oil on...