On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the long-awaited updates to the Biden Administration’s export controls on chips. Topics include: Bad news for Nvidia and good news for PRC semi companies, initial responses from PRC leadership, and follow-up thoughts on the strategic calculus of the U.S. From there: Impromptu TikTok discussion in light of the export controls underscoring the importance of strategic considerations. Then: Xi welcomes Vladimir Putin back to Beijing, the state of the Russia...
Oct 19, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a meeting between Xi Jinping and a congressional delegation led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the latest indication that Xi and the PRC are working toward a trip to APEC in November and a likely meeting with President Biden. From there: Reports of updates to the semiconductor export controls in advance of a Xi visit, Senator Schumer asks Xi and Wang Yi for a swift condemnation of Hamas terror attacks, and whether PRC messaging in the Middle E...
Oct 11, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a correction to last week’s episode and the latest bizarre twist in the Qin Gang saga. Then: A closer look at the recent clashes between the PLA and the Philippines in the South China Sea, this week’s news at the Scarborough Shoal, the Filipino media strategy under President Marcos, and possible PRC responses as international attention intensifies. From there: Xi welcomes Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Hangzhou, Syria praises the “counter-terrorism...
Sep 27, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with this week's reporting on Foreign Minister Qin Gang. As sources in Beijing confirm allegations of an affair and a lovechild, plenty of questions remain. How could those details have gone undetected before Xi promoted Qin in January? Were Qin or his mistress compromised by a foreign government? And why is Party leadership apparently so comfortable disclosing Qin's affair to the international community? From there: The headline of the week from the UK, the...
Sep 21, 2023•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to Heilongjiang during the G-20 Summit, President Biden's comments on containment and the likelihood of a Taiwan invasion, and why news that Wang Yi will skip the UN General Assembly next week does not necessarily tell us anything about Xi's plans for APEC in November. From there: Rahm Emanuel highlights a disinformation campaign centered on the Maui Wildfires and the disappearance of Defense Minister Li Shangfu, rumors continue to sw...
Sep 13, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew & Bill begin with the news that Xi Jinping will skip this weekend’s G-20 summit in India, a Ministry of State Security warning that the U.S. has work to do before any Biden-Xi summit later this year, and the ongoing questions surrounding the recent MSS foray into social media and US-China directives. Then: The international media learns more about Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro, what it could mean if reports are true that SMIC assisted Huawei in making 7nm chips, and the various con...
Sep 06, 2023•1 hr 12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the release of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear power facility and the response from PRC authorities, media and consumers. With a ban of an imports of all aquatic products from Japan and additional boycotts proliferating, what measures might be next? And with the IAEA and many governments largely in agreement that Japan’s plan is safe enough, what does this conflict say about Chinese leadership? From there: Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo me...
Aug 30, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Bill and Andrew begin with an unexplained absence for Xi Jinping in Johannesburg before turning to the multi-faceted problems facing Beijing policymakers as the PRC economy continues to sputter. Topics include: Why a giant stimulus package remains unlikely, whether Xi is the right leader to manage a restructuring of the world's second-largest economy, the "takeover or collapse" false binary, and what to make of the disappearing youth unemployment data. From there: The Ministry of...
Aug 23, 2023•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast Andrew and Bill begin with the heaviest rainfall in at least 140 years in Beijing this week. Topics include: Best wishes to all those affected by the floods, the astounding scale of these storms and resulting damage, citizens angry after local officials allegedly divert floods to protect Xiong'an, and the CPC playbook that will likely restrict information and hide the full extent of the tragedy. From there: Changes atop the PLA Rocket Force raise questions about espionage, the PLA nuclear progra...
Aug 04, 2023•1 hr 1 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a hastily called National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting, Wang Yi's return to his former role as Foreign Minister, and the removal of Qin Gang. Topics include: The messy procedure that led to this week's removal, possible explanations for Qin retaining his role as state councilor, and a possible timeline for an investigation and further announcements regarding Qin's future. Then: What Qin’s removal might mean within the Foreign Ministry, a...
Jul 27, 2023•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the mystery surrounding foreign minister Qin Gang, who has not been seen in public since June 25th. As the foreign ministry stays silent, what might explain his retreat from public view, and how does this situation reflect on Xi Jinping and the party? Then: Henry Kissinger makes a surprise visit to Beijing, meets first with Defense Minister Li Shangfu, while John Kerry meets with Li Qiang and Wang Yi to talk common ground on climate issues. Will either ...
Jul 19, 2023•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen's trip to China, including thoughts on what might be the next evolution in the decoupling discourse, various social media controversies that were unrelated to the substance of her meetings, and the optics of cabinet officials traveling to Beijing without many of their Chinese counterparts reciprocating. Then: New PRC regulations for the export of gallium and germanium, and why last week's announcement ...
Jul 12, 2023•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with recent comments from President Biden that provided a surprise postscript to last week’s episode about renewed US-China engagement. Then: What the PRC might be thinking after a weekend of uncertainty in Russia, and using Putin’s struggles as an object lesson in why Xi has been so aggressive in his efforts to reform the PLA over the past 11 years. From there: Extended discussion of Huawei’s origins, recent reporting on its presence in Cuba, and the questi...
Jun 28, 2023•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill talk through Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's trip to Beijing. First: The voices that convinced Biden to push for an improved relationship, what “back to Bali” actually entails, and reactions to the meetings between Blinken and PRC counterparts Qin Gang and Wang Yi. From there: The Biden Administration wants to close the book on the spy balloon, Xi's public comments concerning US competition vs. what the PRC likely believes internally, Xi's meeting with Blinke...
Jun 21, 2023•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest on Secretary Blinken's visit to Beijing before turning to a recap of several reports on PRC surveillance activities in Cuba and the evolving responses they've elicited from the Biden Administration. From there: What Xi might be signaling with his calls to prepare for “extreme” circumstances and scenarios, more rumors of a stimulus package, and an uptick in administrative fines amid the local debt crisis. At the end: The US says South Korean c...
Jun 14, 2023•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reports that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken may visit China sometime "in the coming weeks." Topics include: The State Department's preliminary trip this past weekend, benefits of continued communication, risks of communication as a reward in itself, and why it's important that Blinken visit before others in the cabinet. Then: The Shangri-La Dialogue and the PRC's controversial tactics in the South China Sea, and reactions to National Security Advise...
Jun 08, 2023•1 hr 6 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the rejected pitch from Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to meet with Defense Minister Li Shangfu this weekend. Topics include: The importance (and limits) of maintaining ongoing military backchannels, why the U.S. push for a meeting was more complicated in this case, and a postscript to last week's questions about America’s response to the silent treatment from PRC diplomats. Then: A report that the Chinese envoy sent to broker peace has urged EU coun...
May 31, 2023•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the strong messaging that emerged from the G-7 summit in Hiroshima and the foreign ministry‘s response, including thoughts on the ongoing trend toward bifurcation and the cycle of name-calling that pervades the relationship between the US and China. Then: a listener asks about the Biden administration’s China policies: What’s been good? What’s been bad? And what happened to the FBI’s report on the spy balloon? At the end: Two new stories on China’s muni...
May 24, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to the meeting between Qin Gang and US Ambassador Nicholas Burns, the case for sending Anthony Blinken to Beijing before John Kerry, and a few questions as both sides pine for a reset to the status quo at last fall’s G20 Summit. Then: More information on the Capvision raids as PRC state media confirms a coordinated, multi-city campaign led by the MSS, and thoughts on the risks for foreign business and investors that have become obvious over th...
May 10, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with news of more raids on Western corporate intelligence firms, investors losing access to Wind Information Co., a reported uptick in foreigners facing exit bans, and the continuing conflict between business-friendly rhetoric and what Xi's security services are doing on the ground. Then: Capital flight to Singapore, various theories to explain the timing of Xi's call to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and head-scratching jargon from the Chinese readout. At the end: Th...
May 03, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the fallout from Ambassador Lu Shaye's remarks questioning the sovereign rights of former members of the Soviet Union. Where did that talking point come from? Will this complicate China's charm offensive in the EU? And where does Lu's mishap fit in the canon of PRC own-goals in recent history? From there: The arrest of journalist Dong Yuyu, various concerns surrounding the broadened language in the updated counterespionage rules expected to be passed by...
Apr 26, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill reunite for their first podcast in nearly a month, beginning with takeaways from Brazilian President Lula da Silva's visit to Beijing, the rumored call from Xi to Zelensky that still hasn't happened, and reactions to French President Emmanuel Macron's comments on Europe and Taiwan. From there: The raid on US due diligence firm Mintz, how the PRC might (and might not) respond to several years of escalating trade restrictions from the U.S., and three complaints file...
Apr 19, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show guest host Ben Thompson and Bill begin with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and discuss China's reaction and the mood on the ground in Taiwan as it approaches a Presidential Election. Later: a discussion on Warren Buffett's comments about TSMC and China's proposed rules for AI.
Apr 13, 2023•59 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show guest host Ben Thompson and Bill begin with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and discuss China's reaction and the mood on the ground in Taiwan as it approaches a Presidential Election. Later: a discussion on Warren Buffett's comments about TSMC and China's proposed rules for AI.
Apr 13, 2023•59 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow and a week of news about deepening ties between China and Russia. Topics include: The recent inversion of the Russia-China relationship, concerns about what a Xi-Putin union means for the rest of the world, and more signs that a much broader project is underway as Xi seek to reshape the international order. For the second half of the show: Real-time reactions to Thursday’s TikTok hearing in Congress, including the testimony ...
Mar 24, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that Saudi Arabia and Iran have reestablished diplomatic relations in a deal that was mediated by China, and announced in Beijing last week. Then: A report that Xi could visit Russia as early as next week, a second report that he will be making his first call to Zelenskyy since the Russian invasion began last year, President Biden heralds the AUKUS submarine partnership alongside leaders from the UK and Australia, and reactions to the idea that...
Mar 15, 2023•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the first few days of the Two Sessions and what to make of the messages sent by Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Then: Reactions to a few recent columns expressing concern at the bipartisan consensus in DC, a new plan for Chinese data, and the draft budget provides more signs that self-sufficiency is a priority across several sectors in the PRC. From there: Tracing the origins of the United Front Work Department and examining the political upro...
Mar 08, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to the PRC’s 12-point plan for a peaceful settlement of the Russian war in Ukraine, including why feigning neutrality fell flat with the international community, continued warnings from U.S. officials regarding weapons assistance, and a visit to Beijing from Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. From there: the Central Party Committee and State Council release new guidelines for legal education, examining the Chinese legal system under Xi...
Mar 01, 2023•55 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reaction to the meeting between Wang Yi and Anthony Blinken in Munich last weekend, including competing readouts that signal continued tension between the U.S. and China, other statements weekend that underscore Chinese frustrations, and what to look for from both sides in the months to come. Then: Joe Biden is in Kyiv, Wang Yi is in Moscow, and Secretary of State Blinken is warning the rest of the world that China is considering providing lethal assist...
Feb 22, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Bill and Andrew begin with the continuing reactions to the balloon controversy, including rumors of a Blinken-Wang Yi meeting in Munich, last weekend’s new foreign object sightings, China’s story of a flying object outside Qingdao, and reports that U.S. officials believe that the initial balloon did, in fact, fly off course. Then: Surveying the anti-American propaganda circulating among state media this week, the CPC’s new favorite journalist, and the efficacy of China's propagan...
Feb 16, 2023•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
