On today's show Andrew and Bill talk through Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's trip to Beijing. First: The voices that convinced Biden to push for an improved relationship, what “back to Bali” actually entails, and reactions to the meetings between Blinken and PRC counterparts Qin Gang and Wang Yi. From there: The Biden Administration wants to close the book on the spy balloon, Xi's public comments concerning US competition vs. what the PRC likely believes internally, Xi's meeting with Blinke...
Jun 21, 2023•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest on Secretary Blinken's visit to Beijing before turning to a recap of several reports on PRC surveillance activities in Cuba and the evolving responses they've elicited from the Biden Administration. From there: What Xi might be signaling with his calls to prepare for “extreme” circumstances and scenarios, more rumors of a stimulus package, and an uptick in administrative fines amid the local debt crisis. At the end: The US says South Korean c...
Jun 14, 2023•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reports that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken may visit China sometime "in the coming weeks." Topics include: The State Department's preliminary trip this past weekend, benefits of continued communication, risks of communication as a reward in itself, and why it's important that Blinken visit before others in the cabinet. Then: The Shangri-La Dialogue and the PRC's controversial tactics in the South China Sea, and reactions to National Security Advise...
Jun 08, 2023•1 hr 6 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the rejected pitch from Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to meet with Defense Minister Li Shangfu this weekend. Topics include: The importance (and limits) of maintaining ongoing military backchannels, why the U.S. push for a meeting was more complicated in this case, and a postscript to last week's questions about America’s response to the silent treatment from PRC diplomats. Then: A report that the Chinese envoy sent to broker peace has urged EU coun...
May 31, 2023•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the strong messaging that emerged from the G-7 summit in Hiroshima and the foreign ministry‘s response, including thoughts on the ongoing trend toward bifurcation and the cycle of name-calling that pervades the relationship between the US and China. Then: a listener asks about the Biden administration’s China policies: What’s been good? What’s been bad? And what happened to the FBI’s report on the spy balloon? At the end: Two new stories on China’s muni...
May 24, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to the meeting between Qin Gang and US Ambassador Nicholas Burns, the case for sending Anthony Blinken to Beijing before John Kerry, and a few questions as both sides pine for a reset to the status quo at last fall’s G20 Summit. Then: More information on the Capvision raids as PRC state media confirms a coordinated, multi-city campaign led by the MSS, and thoughts on the risks for foreign business and investors that have become obvious over th...
May 10, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with news of more raids on Western corporate intelligence firms, investors losing access to Wind Information Co., a reported uptick in foreigners facing exit bans, and the continuing conflict between business-friendly rhetoric and what Xi's security services are doing on the ground. Then: Capital flight to Singapore, various theories to explain the timing of Xi's call to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and head-scratching jargon from the Chinese readout. At the end: Th...
May 03, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the fallout from Ambassador Lu Shaye's remarks questioning the sovereign rights of former members of the Soviet Union. Where did that talking point come from? Will this complicate China's charm offensive in the EU? And where does Lu's mishap fit in the canon of PRC own-goals in recent history? From there: The arrest of journalist Dong Yuyu, various concerns surrounding the broadened language in the updated counterespionage rules expected to be passed by...
Apr 26, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill reunite for their first podcast in nearly a month, beginning with takeaways from Brazilian President Lula da Silva's visit to Beijing, the rumored call from Xi to Zelensky that still hasn't happened, and reactions to French President Emmanuel Macron's comments on Europe and Taiwan. From there: The raid on US due diligence firm Mintz, how the PRC might (and might not) respond to several years of escalating trade restrictions from the U.S., and three complaints file...
Apr 19, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show guest host Ben Thompson and Bill begin with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and discuss China's reaction and the mood on the ground in Taiwan as it approaches a Presidential Election. Later: a discussion on Warren Buffett's comments about TSMC and China's proposed rules for AI.
Apr 13, 2023•59 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow and a week of news about deepening ties between China and Russia. Topics include: The recent inversion of the Russia-China relationship, concerns about what a Xi-Putin union means for the rest of the world, and more signs that a much broader project is underway as Xi seek to reshape the international order. For the second half of the show: Real-time reactions to Thursday’s TikTok hearing in Congress, including the testimony ...
Mar 24, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that Saudi Arabia and Iran have reestablished diplomatic relations in a deal that was mediated by China, and announced in Beijing last week. Then: A report that Xi could visit Russia as early as next week, a second report that he will be making his first call to Zelenskyy since the Russian invasion began last year, President Biden heralds the AUKUS submarine partnership alongside leaders from the UK and Australia, and reactions to the idea that...
Mar 15, 2023•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the first few days of the Two Sessions and what to make of the messages sent by Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Then: Reactions to a few recent columns expressing concern at the bipartisan consensus in DC, a new plan for Chinese data, and the draft budget provides more signs that self-sufficiency is a priority across several sectors in the PRC. From there: Tracing the origins of the United Front Work Department and examining the political upro...
Mar 08, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to the PRC’s 12-point plan for a peaceful settlement of the Russian war in Ukraine, including why feigning neutrality fell flat with the international community, continued warnings from U.S. officials regarding weapons assistance, and a visit to Beijing from Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. From there: the Central Party Committee and State Council release new guidelines for legal education, examining the Chinese legal system under Xi...
Mar 01, 2023•55 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reaction to the meeting between Wang Yi and Anthony Blinken in Munich last weekend, including competing readouts that signal continued tension between the U.S. and China, other statements weekend that underscore Chinese frustrations, and what to look for from both sides in the months to come. Then: Joe Biden is in Kyiv, Wang Yi is in Moscow, and Secretary of State Blinken is warning the rest of the world that China is considering providing lethal assist...
Feb 22, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Bill and Andrew begin with the continuing reactions to the balloon controversy, including rumors of a Blinken-Wang Yi meeting in Munich, last weekend’s new foreign object sightings, China’s story of a flying object outside Qingdao, and reports that U.S. officials believe that the initial balloon did, in fact, fly off course. Then: Surveying the anti-American propaganda circulating among state media this week, the CPC’s new favorite journalist, and the efficacy of China's propagan...
Feb 16, 2023•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a few reactions to Joe Biden’s comments about China in Tuesday’s State of the Union address. From there: several days of outsized reaction around Washington, mounting calls for even stronger American responses to China’s ambitions, and stress-testing the theory that last week’s balloon mess was initiated by rogue PLA agents hoping to sabotage diplomatic talks. At the end: A question about Xi’s conflicting priorities, a close reading of Xi’s comments on ...
Feb 09, 2023•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill reconvene for an emergency episode to share their reactions to the news that the Pentagon is tracking a Chinese reconnaissance balloon across the U.S., the statements coming from both the Pentagon and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the news that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has canceled his trip to Beijing.
Feb 03, 2023•27 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a variety of thoughts in advance of next week's visit to Beijing from Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Topics include: Why cooperation has proven difficult for both sides, hopes that the U.S. can avoid a repeat of Yang Jiechi in Anchorage, an editorial in the People's Daily, and extended thoughts on domestic political concerns underlying the intractable Taiwan dispute. From there: Reactions to a memo from U.S. General Mike Minihan instructing members...
Feb 03, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with news of a jinx on last week's show and recommendations for new China watchers. Topics include Bill's lessons from living in China, Andrew's experience as a newcomer, and ten China watching commandments from the legendary editor of China News Analysis, László Ladány. From there: Checking in with the Belt and Road Initiative after articles in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times describe populations abroad protesting Chinese influence, reactions to ...
Jan 26, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with thoughts on the change in tone from government officials addressing private business, changes it might signify in the short term, and concerns it may not assuage in the long term. From there: the news of a deepened strategic alliance between the US and Japan, why Beijing is outraged, and best case and worst case scenarios when evaluating the implications for a conflict in Taiwan. At the end: China’s population declines for the first time in six decades,...
Jan 19, 2023•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by talking through the latest news on the reopening, including reciprocal travel restrictions imposed on South Korea and Japan, Paxlovid price disputes, and continued uncertainty about case counts. From there: Xie Feng as the likely replacement for Qin Gang in D.C., Zhao Lijan's demotion, the possible demise of wolf warriorism, and the scope of Made in China 2025 and the responses (or lack thereof) from Western companies. At the end: Foxconn's unique status ...
Jan 12, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill reunite after the holiday break and begin with the continued reopening process around China. Topics include: the tragedy of the past several weeks, calls for more transparency from the CCP, dubious testing requirements for Chinese travelers, the government reportedly pressing pause on some of its chip investments, and why it may take a few months before reopening yields any meaningful shift in economic data. Then: Xi's New Year's address and reactions to a spate o...
Jan 06, 2023•1 hr•Transcript available on Metacast On this week's show Andrew and Bill begin with the landscape in China one week after the widespread elimination of covid restrictions. Topics include: Early reports from Beijing and other major cities, best and worst case scenarios for case numbers, what Westerners can and can’t know, and how this process (and the protests) might change perceptions of the CCP inside and outside of China. From there: "The Twitter Files" don't say anything about China, so Bill highlights a number of different area...
Dec 14, 2022•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast On this week's show Andrew and Bill begin with the passing of Jiang Zemin and an overview of the abrupt shift in covid messaging in cities across China. Then mailbag questions, beginning with a listener’s request for context on China's relationships with Japan, Vietnam, Korea and Australia. From there: America’s non-chip interests in Taiwan, whether continued unemployment among college grads will lead to more protests, and why the focus on mRNA vaccines is beside the point with reopening looming...
Dec 07, 2022•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast A review of last weekend's protests and the various questions they raise for Xi and the CCP, a look at the methods used to defuse protests on campuses and in cities, a path to reopening that remains rocky but looks increasingly unavoidable, plus thoughts on the World Cup, Twitter, and an Occam's razor explanation for Xi’s Covid policies.
Nov 30, 2022•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast The meeting between US and Chinese delegations before the G20 summit, the political and structural challenges that may complicate efforts to rebuild the US-China relationship, varied interests underlying the PRC's recent statements about the invasion of Ukraine, Justin Trudeau's tense exchange with Xi, and controversial thoughts on moon cakes.
Nov 18, 2022•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast Examining China's relationship with Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Canada, what the latest Foxconn lockdown says about Apple's risk profile, the real story on China's "ghost cities," and thoughts on the U.S. response to Taiwan.
Nov 11, 2022•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast COVID lockdowns at Foxconn and elsewhere in China, a survey of the near-daily rumors of a looming policy change, glimpses of what these policies have meant for Chinese citizens, and reactions to the latest report seeking clarity as to COVID-19’s origins.
Nov 04, 2022•1 hr 2 min•Transcript available on Metacast The new standing committee unveiled at the 20th Party Congress, the market reaction in Hong Kong, competing theories on what happened to Hu Jintao on Saturday, and whether the world has seen "Peak Xi."
Oct 28, 2022•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
