On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a few reactions to Joe Biden’s comments about China in Tuesday’s State of the Union address. From there: several days of outsized reaction around Washington, mounting calls for even stronger American responses to China’s ambitions, and stress-testing the theory that last week’s balloon mess was initiated by rogue PLA agents hoping to sabotage diplomatic talks. At the end: A question about Xi’s conflicting priorities, a close reading of Xi’s comments on ...
Feb 09, 2023•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill reconvene for an emergency episode to share their reactions to the news that the Pentagon is tracking a Chinese reconnaissance balloon across the U.S., the statements coming from both the Pentagon and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the news that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has canceled his trip to Beijing.
Feb 03, 2023•27 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a variety of thoughts in advance of next week's visit to Beijing from Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Topics include: Why cooperation has proven difficult for both sides, hopes that the U.S. can avoid a repeat of Yang Jiechi in Anchorage, an editorial in the People's Daily, and extended thoughts on domestic political concerns underlying the intractable Taiwan dispute. From there: Reactions to a memo from U.S. General Mike Minihan instructing members...
Feb 03, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with news of a jinx on last week's show and recommendations for new China watchers. Topics include Bill's lessons from living in China, Andrew's experience as a newcomer, and ten China watching commandments from the legendary editor of China News Analysis, László Ladány. From there: Checking in with the Belt and Road Initiative after articles in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times describe populations abroad protesting Chinese influence, reactions to ...
Jan 26, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with thoughts on the change in tone from government officials addressing private business, changes it might signify in the short term, and concerns it may not assuage in the long term. From there: the news of a deepened strategic alliance between the US and Japan, why Beijing is outraged, and best case and worst case scenarios when evaluating the implications for a conflict in Taiwan. At the end: China’s population declines for the first time in six decades,...
Jan 19, 2023•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by talking through the latest news on the reopening, including reciprocal travel restrictions imposed on South Korea and Japan, Paxlovid price disputes, and continued uncertainty about case counts. From there: Xie Feng as the likely replacement for Qin Gang in D.C., Zhao Lijan's demotion, the possible demise of wolf warriorism, and the scope of Made in China 2025 and the responses (or lack thereof) from Western companies. At the end: Foxconn's unique status ...
Jan 12, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill reunite after the holiday break and begin with the continued reopening process around China. Topics include: the tragedy of the past several weeks, calls for more transparency from the CCP, dubious testing requirements for Chinese travelers, the government reportedly pressing pause on some of its chip investments, and why it may take a few months before reopening yields any meaningful shift in economic data. Then: Xi's New Year's address and reactions to a spate o...
Jan 06, 2023•1 hr•Transcript available on Metacast On this week's show Andrew and Bill begin with the landscape in China one week after the widespread elimination of covid restrictions. Topics include: Early reports from Beijing and other major cities, best and worst case scenarios for case numbers, what Westerners can and can’t know, and how this process (and the protests) might change perceptions of the CCP inside and outside of China. From there: "The Twitter Files" don't say anything about China, so Bill highlights a number of different area...
Dec 14, 2022•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast On this week's show Andrew and Bill begin with the passing of Jiang Zemin and an overview of the abrupt shift in covid messaging in cities across China. Then mailbag questions, beginning with a listener’s request for context on China's relationships with Japan, Vietnam, Korea and Australia. From there: America’s non-chip interests in Taiwan, whether continued unemployment among college grads will lead to more protests, and why the focus on mRNA vaccines is beside the point with reopening looming...
Dec 07, 2022•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast A review of last weekend's protests and the various questions they raise for Xi and the CCP, a look at the methods used to defuse protests on campuses and in cities, a path to reopening that remains rocky but looks increasingly unavoidable, plus thoughts on the World Cup, Twitter, and an Occam's razor explanation for Xi’s Covid policies.
Nov 30, 2022•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast The meeting between US and Chinese delegations before the G20 summit, the political and structural challenges that may complicate efforts to rebuild the US-China relationship, varied interests underlying the PRC's recent statements about the invasion of Ukraine, Justin Trudeau's tense exchange with Xi, and controversial thoughts on moon cakes.
Nov 18, 2022•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast Examining China's relationship with Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Canada, what the latest Foxconn lockdown says about Apple's risk profile, the real story on China's "ghost cities," and thoughts on the U.S. response to Taiwan.
Nov 11, 2022•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast COVID lockdowns at Foxconn and elsewhere in China, a survey of the near-daily rumors of a looming policy change, glimpses of what these policies have meant for Chinese citizens, and reactions to the latest report seeking clarity as to COVID-19’s origins.
Nov 04, 2022•1 hr 2 min•Transcript available on Metacast The new standing committee unveiled at the 20th Party Congress, the market reaction in Hong Kong, competing theories on what happened to Hu Jintao on Saturday, and whether the world has seen "Peak Xi."
Oct 28, 2022•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast Xi's departure from the era of "strategic opportunity" at the 20th Party Congress, a wait-and-see approach to the implications of this week, a delay of China's Q3 economic data and ongoing concerns over opacity. Then, reactions to the most recent round of U.S. export controls.
Oct 27, 2022•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
