On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including the work report from Premier Li Qiang, what to make of the 5 percent GDP growth target for 2024, the cancellation of Li's press conference, Xi Jinping’s visit to the Jiangsu breakout session and his message on new productive forces and economic development, and the evolution of the Two Sessions in recent years. From there: The latest exchange between the Philippines and the PRC in the South China Sea, the Biden...
Mar 06, 2024•54 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the CPPCC, the NPC and what to expect as the Two Sessions begin this weekend. Topics include: Xi’s recent absence from public view, the resignation of Qin Gang as an NPC delegate, Li Shangfu’s removal from the party CMC’s official website, Li Qiang’s first work report as premier, and why Xi Jinping’s is unlikely to echo last year’s comments on the US. From there: Reactions to the I-SOON leaks as evidence of PRC hacking continues to circul...
Feb 28, 2024•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with recent meetings between US officials and PRC counterparts in Munich and Vienna, including complaints from both Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong that the U.S. has harassed PRC students trying to enter the U.S., as well as a note about China's designation as a "major drug source country." From there: The MSS takes to WeChat to criticize the CIA, while the FBI ...
Feb 21, 2024•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with another week of volatility in and around the PRC markets, including a crash on Monday, stabilization as the week unfolded, reports of a meeting between Xi and regulators, and changes at the CSRC. Then: For the first time in 17 years Mexico has supplanted China as the biggest U.S. trade partner, which raises questions about the future of the bilateral trade relationship and volume of PRC goods that have been diverted through countries like Mexico and Vie...
Feb 09, 2024•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to the revival of Article 23 and thoughts on the landscape in Hong Kong as its laws continue to converge with the mainland. Then: A step back for the stock markets after last week’s stabilization efforts, another politburo meeting comes and goes without any announcement of a plenum, and a question about buying real estate in China. At the end: A listener has a question about President Trump and Taiwan, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is grilled by Sen...
Feb 02, 2024•1 hr 4 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an expanding list of sensitive sites around China at which Tesla vehicles have been deemed a security risk. With the PRC electric vehicle industry expanding every year, what does the future look like for Elon Musk and Tesla in China? And as PRC auto manufacturing outpaces domestic demand, how might the rest of the world react as Chinese cars flood foreign markets? Then: A few new messages and policies emerge as Beijing’s response to weak investor sentim...
Jan 26, 2024•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with last weekend’s election in Taiwan, where William Lai and the DPP retained their hold on the presidency but lost a majority in legislature. Topics include: The reactions from China and around the world, continued questions about a timeline for reunification, Hong Kong as a cautionary tale for the Taiwanese, Nauru and the United Nations, and sparring between the Foreign Ministry and the Philippines. From there: Li Qiang delivers good news to Davos, invest...
Jan 19, 2024•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a note about this weekend’s elections in Taiwan before turning back to the upheaval in the PLA. Topics include: Bloomberg's reporting on a US intelligence assessment, realism on PRC capabilities, the history of PLA corruption, and recent reporting about China's nuclear ambitions. From there: Reactions to the foreign affairs work conference in late December, why Beijing sees opportunities around the world, and thoughts on Liu Jianchao's visit to the US a...
Jan 12, 2024•1 hr 6 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through questions and key areas to watch during the year to come in China. First: A look at the economy a year after the end of dynamic zero covid, including a Bloomberg report on real estate market and household wealth, MSS warnings about discourse traps, and a corruption crackdown that's likely to continue. Then: Foreign policy questions include ongoing tensions with the Philippines and Taiwan, an ODNI report on election interference in the US, and a tactic...
Dec 21, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with thoughts on the readout from the Central Economic Work Conference, including the emphasis on "progress" alongside stability, high-quality development and high-level security, PRC attempts at brand management, and where infrastructure investment might be going. From there: More water cannons, more controversy, and the same concerns as problems persist between the Chinese Coast Guard and the Philippines in the South China Sea. At the end: Frustrations wit...
Dec 13, 2023•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the claims contained in a controversial piece from Politico, including thoughts on the spectrum of rumors surrounding this year’s disappearing cabinet members, the smaller-than-ever circle of true insiders in Xi’s China, and certain details of present-day CPC politics and that are beyond dispute. From there: Several stories in and around the finance sector, where there have been more warnings against relaying bad news, there is still no third plen...
Dec 08, 2023•1 hr 7 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a new generation of foreign influencers said to be assisting in Xi's campaign to “tell China's story well” and an update on Wolf Warrior diplomacy as 2023 draws to a close. Then: Q&A with the Sinocism chat, including a request for tangible signs of fentanyl progress, regional governments vying for debt relief, Li Qiang at the Central Financial Commission, and a look at why and how PRC citizens are moving investments outside China. At the end: One listen...
Nov 29, 2023•18 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill look back at a week of news from San Francisco. Topics include: A "tactical stabilization" in the US-China relationship, world leaders comparing cars, concessions from the US and a PRC commitment on fentanyl, whether China would prefer Biden or Trump in 2024, and what else was achieved on both sides of the Biden-Xi meeting last week. From there: Xi’s message to the business community (and why some foreign investors were hoping for more), President Biden doubles do...
Nov 21, 2023•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast After one year of Sharp Tech and Sharp China, a summit with Ben Thompson, Bill Bishop and Andrew Sharp to discuss podcasting, the chip ban, the US-China relationship and beyond.
Nov 16, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping’s trip to San Francisco and a likely meeting with President Biden next week. Topics include: A planned dinner with business leaders, why the PRC hasn’t yet confirmed the trip, modest goals for both sides, more ambitious concessions China and the US may seek. From there: Janet Yellen’s column in the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal offers one calculation for foreign capital flight, and why changes at the as yet unscheduled Third Plenum...
Nov 08, 2023•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Bill and Andrew begin with the passing of Li Keqiang, the grief that swept China over the weekend, and the various party protocols that were set in motion to control the mourning process this week. From there: Another Politburo meeting comes and goes with no news about a third plenum to devise new economic policy, the modest progress and persistent structural challenges animating the US-China relationship in 2023, and the MSS turns its eyes to meteorology. At the end: Extended th...
Nov 01, 2023•1 hr 6 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest confrontation between the PRC and the Philippines in the South China Sea, clarity as to PRC maritime tactics that look increasingly like an undeclared blockade, and questions about when and how the US might get involved. From there: Qin Gang and Li Shangfu are formally removed from the State Council, the MSS discloses details of another citizen accused of spying for the US, and leaders of the Five Eyes go to Silicon Valley and 60 Minutes. At ...
Oct 25, 2023•26 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the long-awaited updates to the Biden Administration’s export controls on chips. Topics include: Bad news for Nvidia and good news for PRC semi companies, initial responses from PRC leadership, and follow-up thoughts on the strategic calculus of the U.S. From there: Impromptu TikTok discussion in light of the export controls underscoring the importance of strategic considerations. Then: Xi welcomes Vladimir Putin back to Beijing, the state of the Russia...
Oct 19, 2023•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a meeting between Xi Jinping and a congressional delegation led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the latest indication that Xi and the PRC are working toward a trip to APEC in November and a likely meeting with President Biden. From there: Reports of updates to the semiconductor export controls in advance of a Xi visit, Senator Schumer asks Xi and Wang Yi for a swift condemnation of Hamas terror attacks, and whether PRC messaging in the Middle E...
Oct 11, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a correction to last week’s episode and the latest bizarre twist in the Qin Gang saga. Then: A closer look at the recent clashes between the PLA and the Philippines in the South China Sea, this week’s news at the Scarborough Shoal, the Filipino media strategy under President Marcos, and possible PRC responses as international attention intensifies. From there: Xi welcomes Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Hangzhou, Syria praises the “counter-terrorism...
Sep 27, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with this week's reporting on Foreign Minister Qin Gang. As sources in Beijing confirm allegations of an affair and a lovechild, plenty of questions remain. How could those details have gone undetected before Xi promoted Qin in January? Were Qin or his mistress compromised by a foreign government? And why is Party leadership apparently so comfortable disclosing Qin's affair to the international community? From there: The headline of the week from the UK, the...
Sep 21, 2023•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to Heilongjiang during the G-20 Summit, President Biden's comments on containment and the likelihood of a Taiwan invasion, and why news that Wang Yi will skip the UN General Assembly next week does not necessarily tell us anything about Xi's plans for APEC in November. From there: Rahm Emanuel highlights a disinformation campaign centered on the Maui Wildfires and the disappearance of Defense Minister Li Shangfu, rumors continue to sw...
Sep 13, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew & Bill begin with the news that Xi Jinping will skip this weekend’s G-20 summit in India, a Ministry of State Security warning that the U.S. has work to do before any Biden-Xi summit later this year, and the ongoing questions surrounding the recent MSS foray into social media and US-China directives. Then: The international media learns more about Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro, what it could mean if reports are true that SMIC assisted Huawei in making 7nm chips, and the various con...
Sep 06, 2023•1 hr 12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the release of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear power facility and the response from PRC authorities, media and consumers. With a ban of an imports of all aquatic products from Japan and additional boycotts proliferating, what measures might be next? And with the IAEA and many governments largely in agreement that Japan’s plan is safe enough, what does this conflict say about Chinese leadership? From there: Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo me...
Aug 30, 2023•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Bill and Andrew begin with an unexplained absence for Xi Jinping in Johannesburg before turning to the multi-faceted problems facing Beijing policymakers as the PRC economy continues to sputter. Topics include: Why a giant stimulus package remains unlikely, whether Xi is the right leader to manage a restructuring of the world's second-largest economy, the "takeover or collapse" false binary, and what to make of the disappearing youth unemployment data. From there: The Ministry of...
Aug 23, 2023•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast Andrew and Bill begin with the heaviest rainfall in at least 140 years in Beijing this week. Topics include: Best wishes to all those affected by the floods, the astounding scale of these storms and resulting damage, citizens angry after local officials allegedly divert floods to protect Xiong'an, and the CPC playbook that will likely restrict information and hide the full extent of the tragedy. From there: Changes atop the PLA Rocket Force raise questions about espionage, the PLA nuclear progra...
Aug 04, 2023•1 hr 1 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a hastily called National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting, Wang Yi's return to his former role as Foreign Minister, and the removal of Qin Gang. Topics include: The messy procedure that led to this week's removal, possible explanations for Qin retaining his role as state councilor, and a possible timeline for an investigation and further announcements regarding Qin's future. Then: What Qin’s removal might mean within the Foreign Ministry, a...
Jul 27, 2023•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the mystery surrounding foreign minister Qin Gang, who has not been seen in public since June 25th. As the foreign ministry stays silent, what might explain his retreat from public view, and how does this situation reflect on Xi Jinping and the party? Then: Henry Kissinger makes a surprise visit to Beijing, meets first with Defense Minister Li Shangfu, while John Kerry meets with Li Qiang and Wang Yi to talk common ground on climate issues. Will either ...
Jul 19, 2023•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen's trip to China, including thoughts on what might be the next evolution in the decoupling discourse, various social media controversies that were unrelated to the substance of her meetings, and the optics of cabinet officials traveling to Beijing without many of their Chinese counterparts reciprocating. Then: New PRC regulations for the export of gallium and germanium, and why last week's announcement ...
Jul 12, 2023•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with recent comments from President Biden that provided a surprise postscript to last week’s episode about renewed US-China engagement. Then: What the PRC might be thinking after a weekend of uncertainty in Russia, and using Putin’s struggles as an object lesson in why Xi has been so aggressive in his efforts to reform the PLA over the past 11 years. From there: Extended discussion of Huawei’s origins, recent reporting on its presence in Cuba, and the questi...
Jun 28, 2023•Transcript available on Metacast 
