On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Friday's announcement from the NPC standing committee and more incremental stabilization measures from PRC leadership. Topics include: Foreign investors (again) hoping for more, "deepening reforms" and domestic consumption, the trade surplus with the US exceeds the trillion dollar threshold, and why attempts to build an alliance with the EU are unlikely to succeed. From there: Taiwan considers a big arms purchase as Trump prepares to take office, the Ph...
Nov 13, 2024•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through a second Donald Trump presidency and what it might mean for US-China relations. Topics include: a note of congratulations from Xi Jinping Thursday morning, memories of the first Trump presidency, the calculus from both sides as tariffs loom, a larger toolkit of responses to trade policy for the PRC, potential intermediaries between Trump's administration and PRC leadership, and the strategic challenges and opportunities that China sees in a Trump admi...
Nov 08, 2024•1 hr 5 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions for future administrations. From there: The NPC Standing Committee meeting is set for next week, th...
Oct 30, 2024•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to the16th BRICS Summit and Russia's rumored effort to build a platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. From there: The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that may or may not materialize, waiting for news on the next meeting of the NPC standing committee, and one theory on how the US election could impact the timing of the next fiscal announcement. Then: Xi's visit to a PLA Rocket Force brigade in Anhui,...
Oct 23, 2024•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the PRC has sent two pandas to the National Zoo in Washington D.C., as Qing Bao, a 3-year-old year-old female, and Bao Li, a 3-year-old male, begin a 30-day quarantine in the Panda House. Then: Takeaways from Monday's Operation Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan, including the strategic value of these military exercises for the PRC, and the implications of normalizing this pattern of behavior. From there: Parsing the "stimulus" news over the ...
Oct 16, 2024•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the market's reactions to the NDRC press briefing on Tuesday, as Hong Kong saw all of last week's gains erased, while the PRC markets continued to see gains. Topics include: Misplaced expectations on the NDRC press conference, a National People's Congress meeting later in October that may articulate more concrete measures, and more thoughts on the continued volatility in the market themselves as well as commentary around the world. From there: An emaile...
Oct 09, 2024•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with revived animal spirits and the market response to the stimulus measures emerging from Beijing. Topics include: The September Politburo meeting as a sign of the government's commitment, why the capital markets may be a security priority for Xi, what might have motivated the sudden policy shift at the top, and parallels to the market responses in 2014. From there: The property sector and the multi-layered problem policymakers are attempting to solve, Blin...
Oct 02, 2024•51 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of measures announced this week to stimulate the economy. Topics include: A pop to the stock market just in time for the PRC's 75th anniversary, stimulating mergers and acquisitions, whether this week's measures indicate more relief in the months to come, and more. Then: The disappearance of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng, and a reminder of structural problems under Xi that have continued to intensify, regardless of monetary policy. At the end:...
Sep 26, 2024•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by wishing a happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all. Then: The PRC government implements the Decision on Gradually Raising the Statutory Retirement Ages. Why was this necessary, why were the changes made now, and what might this signal about the rest of goals and reforms announced at the Third Plenum? From there: The PRC blockade at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal appears to have succeeded as the Philippines returns the BRP Theresa Magbanua to port, and questions persis...
Sep 18, 2024•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to last week's arrest of Linda Sun, a former deputy chief of staff to governor Kathy Hochul. Topics include: The allegations contained in the Department of Justice indictment of Sun and her husband, the PRC efforts to influence local government officials around the world, the status of New York Consul General Huang Ping, and a report on the suppression of dissidents during Xi's APEC visit in November. From there: Updates on the overcapacity co...
Sep 11, 2024•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a look at the dialogue between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi. Topics include: Why meetings with Wang are valuable to the U.S. side, the progress the meetings have (and have not) yielded, and the strategy going forward. From there: Yet another clash between the PRC and the Philippines over the weekend, continued questions about when and how the U.S. may intervene, and ...
Sep 04, 2024•1 hr 8 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill return from the Beidaihe break with an update on a raft of Xi rumors and a programming note. Then: Back to the South China Sea, where good news at Second Thomas Shoal has quickly been overshadowed by an aerial incident at Scarborough Shoal and Monday's collision between PRC coast guard vessels and the Philippine coast guard. From there: A Foreign Affairs article outlining Beijing's perspective on the 2024 Presidential election in the US, three categories of Americ...
Aug 21, 2024•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a programming note for the next few weeks and various questions for the next few months of the Biden Administration. Topics include: A meeting between Secretary of State of Anthony Blinken and Wang Yi, more threats of escalating sanctions if the PRC supports Russian war efforts, what Kamala Harris China policies might look like, and whether the Commerce Department will take action on connected vehicles before November. From there: Rumors of Huawei’s dem...
Jul 31, 2024•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the Third Plenum resolution, Xi’s explainer, and its reception among the investment community and China observers. Topics include: Why Xi staying the course should surprise no one, the significance of the five-year timeline set forth for reforms, specific domestic problems alongside broad rhetoric about goals and productive forces, and the external environment that serves as context for the party's priorities. From there: The party’s timeline for planni...
Jul 24, 2024•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the third plenum and its significance before turning to Thursday's communique in the wake of the plenum. Topics include: Official news on Qin Gang and Li Shangfu twelve months after they each disappeared, the wide-range of goals throughout the communique, questions as we wait for implementation, and the party's stated goal of completing its reform tasks by 2029. From there: The rumors swirling around Xi Jinping and his health this week, a...
Jul 19, 2024•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill prepare for next week’s Third Plenum by talking through expectations and themes to watch. Topics include: The signals from April's Xinhua readout announcing the plenary session, remembering third plenums of the past, why common prosperity is on the agenda, why this year's plenum may be the clearest articulation of Xi’s vision for the Party and the PRC, and examining some of the ongoing domestic issues that the Party may (or may not) try to address with reforms. At...
Jul 10, 2024•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill are joined by Raja Krishnamoorthi, Democratic representative for the 8th District of Illinois, and the ranking member of the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party. Topics include: The Select Committee's work to draft and pass legislation to force the divestiture of TikTok, investigations into American VC investments in PLA-linked PRC companies, how to tackle IP theft in tech, searching for fentanyl ...
Jun 26, 2024•1 hr 2 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest incident at Second Thomas Shoal, where the Chinese Coast Guard blocked an attempted resupply of the Sierra Madre in a standoff that caused damage to Philippine Naval vessels and several injuries to members of the Navy. Topics include: Another escalation in a devolving relationship, whether the U.S. will intervene, why China has ignored Vietnam’s buildup elsewhere in the Spratly Islands, and more. Then: Reports that Beijing has no preference b...
Jun 21, 2024•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Wednesday's announcement that the EU will increase tariffs on electric vehicles imported from the PRC, including potential responses from Beijing, the fissures among the EU coalition, the reality on the ground in and around Europe, and the war in Ukraine looming over the decisions from EU policymakers. From there: An attack on four U.S. teachers in Jilin City, the reactions among commentators in the U.S., and life for Americans living in the PRC. At the...
Jun 13, 2024•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with PRC messaging at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, including the US responses to new Defense Minister Dong Jun, how neighboring countries perceive the divergence between PRC rhetoric and PRC actions, and takeaways from Operation Joint Sword-2024A. From there: Parsing Xi's January speech on "New Quality Productive Forces" in advance of the third plenum, overcapacity is becoming a political problem more than an economic debate, and a Financial Times s...
Jun 05, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with President William Lai’s inauguration in Taiwan, including the PRC responses we've seen so far, recent activity around Kinmen island, and a Bloomberg report that ASML’s EUV machines can be shut down remotely in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. From there: Friday’s announcement of relief plans for the real estate sector, and more thoughts on the challenges facing policymakers as they look to revive consumer sentiment. Then: Questions on the People's Ba...
May 22, 2024•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the new tariffs announced by President Biden this week, including the implications for America's green energy industries, the evolving scope of global competitive realities, and a variety of questions for future US policymakers. From there: Why Beijing may be reluctant to issue a substantive response to US tariffs while the EU refines its own tariff policies on EVs, and Vladimir Putin's visit to China highlights the delicate balance Beiji...
May 17, 2024•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Xi Jinping’s visit to France, Serbia and Hungary, where topics included cognac, "so-called overcapacity", the war in Ukraine, and Ambassador Lu Shaye twelve months after his comments about post-Soviet states. From there: The People’s Daily and other party media went dark for much of the day on Tuesday, and the Biden administration does not renew export licenses that allow Intel and Qualcomm to supply Huawei with semiconductors for compute...
May 09, 2024•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a surprise, 24-hour trip to China for Elon Musk, and a Sunday meeting with Premier Li Qiang. Topics include: The Musk meeting as PRC response to mounting scrutiny in the US, the benefits to both sides of the Tesla-PRC relationship, and why this week's news may not answer Tesla's long term questions in the Chinese market. From there: Parsing the readout from the April Politburo meeting, including insights into how leadership sees the economy now, an anno...
May 01, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's trip to Beijing and Shanghai this week, including reports that the Blinken plans to warn PRC counterparts about their continued commercial support of Russia's defense industry, and additional reports that the U.S. has drafted sanctions that could be levied against Chinese banks facilitating that support. From there: The many flashpoints that have emerged since Xi Jinping and Joe Biden shared their "San Francisco Visi...
Apr 24, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the meeting between Xi Jinping and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, including muted messaging on overcapacity concerns, Germany’s investments in the PRC market, and a request for Xi Jinping to broker peace in Ukraine. From there: Economic data from Q1 in China, and a question about Beijing's calculus in the face of mounting tension between Iran and Israel. At the end: National Security Day and more anecdotes from the MSS, memories from Bill...
Apr 17, 2024•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen's visit to China, including what her meetings may or may not accomplish and the likely next steps for the Biden Administration in the months to come. From there: As the US and Europe grapple with the threat of cheaper PRC goods in key industries, how might China respond to raised tariffs around the world? Will there be consequences for continued support of Russia's defense industrial base? And how realis...
Apr 10, 2024•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Tuesday’s phone call between President Biden and President Xi, including the PRC rhetoric surrounding US trade and tech policies, and messages to both domestic audiences and allies. From there: Janet Yellen’s visit to China and her evolving stance on PRC exports, the March Politburo meeting comes and goes without plenum news, Xi meets with U.S. business leaders, and Harvard’s Graham Allison emerges as a potential Henry Kissinger successor...
Apr 04, 2024•1 hr 4 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the Ministry of State Security providing its interpretation of the Cybersecurity Law. Topics include: The odd timing of this message as debate roils over TikTok, the legal and regulatory framework that’s emerged under Xi, and the lack of anonymity on the PRC internet. From there: The Hong Kong legislature passes Article 23 faster than expected, and an update on the state of the TikTok legislation as the Senate prepares for an intel briefing on Wednesday...
Mar 20, 2024•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a week of surprising progress for the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. With the House set to vote Wednesday, they discuss the origins of the bill and months of work behind the scenes, TikTok’s now-infamous in-app alert, and why Beijing is likely to oppose any divestment plan if the bill eventually becomes law. From there: The factions in Washington that are opposing this bill, regulatory obstacles for American Int...
Mar 13, 2024•11 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
