Forward Guidance

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Episodes

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Forward Guidance

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx

Episodes

Michael Drury on China's Trillion Dollar Secret and Why The U.S. Is Not Headed Imminently Into A Recession

This interview with Michael Drury explores how China’s problems affect the global economy, its economic advantages, and where it spends its trillion-dollar surplus. We also discuss the US economy’s resilience, why Michael doesn’t see a recession, and much more. – Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:3...

Aug 26, 2024•1 hr 17 min•Transcript available on Metacast

How the Dollar Will Be Gradually Eroded by Emerging Market Currencies | Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina (VanEck Fireside Chat)

This interview with Eric Fine & Natalia Gurushina delves into the potential of emerging markets, how they are affected by developed market weakness, and contrasting central bank strategies. We also discuss investing in China, emerging market reserve strategies, and de-dollarization. This interview is paid sponsorship on behalf of the VanEck corporation. Recorded on August 7, 2024. __ Follow Eric Fine on LinkedIn https://blckwrks.co/3SUlCPt Follow Natalia urushina on Twitter https://x.com/NGurush...

Aug 22, 2024•2 hr 46 min•Transcript available on Metacast

The Strategies & Risks In Quant Trading | Mike Harris

This interview with Mike Harris explores the strategies and challenges of the Quest Hedge Fund, from CTA trend-following and AI trading models to the overcrowded quant equity space. We also dive into statistical arbitrage, multi-strat funds, the macro outlook, and the advantages & risks of using AI. -- Follow Mike Harris on Twitter https://x.com/mikeharris410?lang=en Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuida...

Aug 19, 2024•1 hr 11 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Deficit Spending Will Send S&P 500 To 6,000 And Beyond | George Robertson & Mel Mattison on the True Risk-Free Rate and The Fed's Control of The Treasury Market

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. -- This interview with George Robertson and Mel Mattison explores why deficit spending will send stocks and risky assets higher. We also discuss the true risk-free rate and the Federal Reserve’s control over the Treasury Market, nominal GDP’s relationship to interest rates, and stock market valuations that could lead to a collapse in 2027. __ Follow George Robertson...

Aug 12, 2024•3 hr 36 min•Transcript available on Metacast

The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson on Unwind of the Yen Carry Trade, and the Exaggerated Rumors of the Dollar’s Demise

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first ...

Aug 08, 2024•1 hr 20 min•Transcript available on Metacast

The Global Margin Call | Volatility Veteran Noel Smith on Dispersion, Vol of Vol, and How He’s Trading VIX Spike & Stock Market Crash

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://x.com/NoelConvex Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be cons...

Aug 05, 2024•44 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Mike Green: Passive Stock Market Edifice Put To The Test As Recession A Near Certainty

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. This interview was recorded at 10am ET on Friday, August 2. The jobs report, which was released 90 minutes prior at 8:30am ET, showed the unemployment rate move non-linearly up from 4.1% to 4.3%, and the stock market fell sharply and short-term interest rate futures market priced in a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve doing a DOUBLE (50 bps) cut by its Septembe...

Aug 02, 2024•2 hr 37 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Following The "Fed Breadcrumbs" | Nick Timiraos on “Not Hot At All” Labor Market, Interest Rate Cuts, and Fed’s Collision Course With 2024 Election

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://x.com/NickTimiraos Nick’s work at WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_...

Aug 01, 2024•1 hr 7 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Why Credit Conditions Have Actually Eased Over Past Year | Oaktree’s Wayne Dahl on High-Yield Bonds, Leveraged Loans, Private Credit, and the Recession Yet To Arrive

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:36) The High-Yield Bond Market (10:08) VanEck Ad (10:48) Putting Money To Work When ...

Jul 29, 2024•1 hr 10 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Tommy Thornton: Tech Stocks Are In A Bubble

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Tommy Thornton on Twitter https://x.com/TommyThornton Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:52) Tech Stocks Are In ...

Jul 28, 2024•1 hr 22 min•Transcript available on Metacast

How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI)

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and ...

Jul 23, 2024•1 hr 16 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Banks Are Cleaning House Of Their Bad Assets | Chris Whalen

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://x.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Overview of Chris' Banking...

Jul 22, 2024•1 hr 12 min•Transcript available on Metacast

China Is Exporting Unemployment | Michael Pettis on Global Trade Imbalances, American Capital Controls, and the End of The Chinese Growth Miracle

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://x.com/michaelxpettis Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Recent writings by Michael Pettis: “Which Country Should Desig...

Jul 18, 2024•2 hr 32 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Peter Boockvar on an Overheated Stock Market, China’s Green Shoots, and the Private Credit Bezzle

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Peter Boockvar on Twitter https://twitter.com/pboockvar Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Peter's Economic Worries: That Lower-End Consumers Are Already In ...

Jul 15, 2024•1 hr 26 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Airline Revenues Are Soaring. Their Profits Are Not | Planes And Trains Expert Jay Shabat on Depressed Railroad Volumes And Global Air Traffic

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Skift Airline Weekly https://airlineweekly.skift.com/ Jay Shabat’s Railroad Weekly https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:10) Railroads...

Jul 11, 2024•2 hr 30 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Why The Chinese Real Estate Downturn Won’t Sink The Chinese Economy | Ben Harburg

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Has The Bearish Narrative On China's Collapse Gone Too Far? (05:50) Collapse Of Evergrande Was NOT A "Lehman Moment," Argues Harb...

Jul 08, 2024•1 hr 24 min•Transcript available on Metacast

BCG Chief Economist: Artificial Intelligence Will Displace Labor | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Economic False Alarms and Solar Flare Black Swans

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years (05:44) The False Recession Signal of 2022 (19:36) VanEck Ad (20:17) What Is The Cause Of...

Jul 02, 2024•1 hr 19 min•Transcript available on Metacast

“Accident Brewing” | Neil Dutta on Rising Slowdown Risks And Why He Thinks The Fed Will Cut Sooner Rather Than Later

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://x.com/RenMacLLC?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow RenMac website: https://t.co/VJIDWiWMkc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestam...

Jun 27, 2024•1 hr 1 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jonah van Bourg on Twitter https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x podcast on Twitter https://x.com/1000xPod Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Time...

Jun 25, 2024•1 hr 29 min•Transcript available on Metacast

The Next Big Thing In Capital Markets | David Goone

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. -- This week, David Goone CEO of tZERO joins the show for a discussion on the next big trend he is seeing within capital markets. We discuss David's time at the ICE exchange, acquisition as a growth strategy, the development of online trading, how to unlock liquidity for alternative assets & more. Enjoy! -- Follow tZERO on Twitter https://x.com/tZERO Follow VanEck o...

Jun 24, 2024•1 hr 9 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Midas’ website: https://midas.app/ Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwa Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/ Fabrice Grinda on Twitter https://x.com/fabricegrinda Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/Forwar...

Jun 20, 2024•2 hr 30 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Citrini on 2024 Election Portfolio Construction And AI “Mania”

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7 Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary Citrini, “Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications Follow VanEck on Twitt...

Jun 18, 2024•2 hr 46 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Relentless Hiring In Healthcare & Government Doesn’t Care About Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes | Eric Pachman’s Data-Visualizations On Why Inflation & Hiring Are Sticky

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Eric Pachman on Twitter https://x.com/EricPachman Follow Bancreek on Twitter https://x.com/bancreek Bancreek’s CPI tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/checking-the-tape-may-2024-cpiu Bancreek’s PCE tool: https://www.bancreek.com/p/april-2024-pce-update Bancreek’s labor market tree map: https://www.bancreek.com/p/us-employment-data-treemap Follow VanEck on Twitte...

Jun 17, 2024•2 hr 38 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Growth Scare Hits U.S. Economy | Barry Knapp on Fed’s “Quadrilemma,” Lehman Brothers, and Job Market

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Barry Knapp on Twitter https://x.com/barryknapp?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Times...

Jun 13, 2024•1 hr 20 min•Transcript available on Metacast

“Get Used to 3-4% Inflation and 4-5% Interest Rates” | Jim Bianco on Fed’s June Meeting and Resilient U.S. Economy

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter @biancoresearch Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 17:39 VanEck Ad __ Disclaimer: Nothing ...

Jun 12, 2024•1 hr 9 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Secrets of the Federal Reserve’s Unconventional Monetary Policy | William English, former Director of Division of Monetary Affairs for the Fed Board of Governors, on Quantitative Easing (QE) and Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. William English’s work at the Yale Program on Financial Stability: https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-b-english William English’s co-authored new book, “Monetary Policy Responses to Post-Pandemic Inflation”: https://cepr.org/about/news/press-release-new-cepr-ebook-monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation William English’s co-aut...

Jun 10, 2024•1 hr 25 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time)

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://x.com/PPGMacro Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) China Export...

Jun 06, 2024•2 hr 32 min•Transcript available on Metacast

The Modular Integration Spectrum | Keone & Zon

In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tun...

Jun 05, 2024•1 hr 4 min•Transcript available on Metacast

Jens Nordvig: Days of Japan’s Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) Are Numbered

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://x.com/jnordvig ExAnte Data on Twitter https://x.com/ExanteData MarketReader on Twitter https://x.com/MarketReaderInc Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter h...

Jun 04, 2024•1 hr 1 min•Transcript available on Metacast

The Inflation Paradox: Inflation Is Still A Problem | Weekly Roundup

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy! -- Follow On The Margin: https://tw...

Jun 01, 2024•46 min•Transcript available on Metacast