If a child loves reading, how big a difference does that make to their future success? In a much-repeated claim, often sourced to a 2002 OECD report, it is suggested that it makes the biggest difference there is – that reading for pleasure is the biggest factor in future success. But is that true? We speak to Miyako Ikeda from the OECD and Professor Alice Sullivan from University College London. Presenter / series producer: Tom Colls Reporter / producer: Debbie Richford Production co-ordinator: ...
May 11, 2024•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast Polling by YouGov made headlines around the world when it suggested 20% of young adults in the US thought the holocaust was a myth. But polling experts at the Pew Research Centre thought the result might not be accurate, due to problems with the kind of opt-in polling it was based on. They tried to replicate the finding, and did not get the same answer. We speak to Andrew Mercer from the Pew Research Centre and YouGov chief scientist Douglas Rivers. Presenter /series producer: Tom Colls Producti...
May 04, 2024•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast Libertarian populist Javier Milei won the presidential election in Argentina on a promise austerity and economic “shock” measures for the ailing economy. Just a few months in, some are hailing the falling rate of inflation as showing those measures are working. Economist Monica de Bolle, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, explains whether that thinking is correct. Presenter/producer: Tom Colls Producer: Ajai Singh Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix:...
Apr 26, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast The Cass Review is an independent report on the state of gender identity services for under-18s in England’s NHS. It found children had been let down by a lack of research and "remarkably weak" evidence on medical interventions in gender care. But before it was even released, claims were circulating online that it ignored 98% of the evidence in reaching its conclusion. Is that claim true? We speak to Dr Hilary Cass, the author of the review, Professor Catherine Hewitt of York University, who ana...
Apr 20, 2024•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast Netflix has a big new show named after and inspired by a classic problem in astrophysics, 'The Three Body Problem', where predicting the course and orbits of three or more celestial bodies proves near impossible. But how faithful is the Netflix show - and original novel - to the actual physics? Dr Anna Lisa Varri from the University of Edinburgh explains what we can and can't say about the complex and beautiful motions of planets, stars and moons, and brings a dose of scientific facts to science...
Apr 13, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast Is loneliness as bad for you as smoking 15 cigarettes per day? That’s the claim circulating on social media. We trace this stat back to its source and speak the scientist behind the original research on which it is based, Professor Julianne Holt-Lunstad. Presenter / series producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Perisha Kudhail Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon
Apr 06, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel prize-winning behavioural economist and More or Less hero, has died at the age of 90. Tim Harford explains his ideas and influence. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Hal Haines Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon
Mar 30, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast In an episode of More or Less from 2012, Daniel Kahneman – the Nobel prize-winning behavioural economist who has died at the age of 90 – explains the big ideas in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow.
Mar 28, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast The area of ice covering the Arctic ocean has been in a state of long decline, as climate change takes effect. But recent fluctuations in the ice have been seized on by climate change sceptics, who say it tells a different story. We speak to polar climate scientist Professor Julienne Stroeve to better understand how to read the ice data. Presenter / producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
Mar 25, 2024•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast According to the head of the British military, the Russian government spends 40% of its budget on its war machine. But is it true? With the help of Professor Bettina Renz from Nottingham University and Dr Richard Connolly from The Royal United Services Institute, Olga Smirnova investigates the figure. Presenter: Tom Colls Producer: Olga Smirnova Production Co-ordinator Katie Morrison Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Graham Puddifoot Editor: Richard Vadon Image: Russian Military Perform Vict...
Mar 16, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast For over 50 years it’s been widely reported that speaking before a group is people’s number one fear. But is it really true? With the help of Dr Karen Kangas Dwyer, a former Professor in the School of Communication at the University of Nebraska-Omaha and Dr Christopher Bader, Professor of Sociology at Chapman University, Tim Harford tracks the source of the claim back to the 1970’s and explores whether it was true then, and whether it’s true today. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richfor...
Mar 09, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast As running races get longer, the gap between male and female competitors seems to close. Tim Harford and Lucy Proctor investigate the claim that when the race is 195 miles long, women overtake men to become the fastest runners. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lucy Proctor Producers: Nathan Gower and Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon (Image:Male and female running together up a mountain trail. Credit...
Mar 02, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast Is school funding at record levels as the education secretary claimed? Why did the ONS change how they measure excess deaths? Is there a shoplifting epidemic? Did 6.5bn creatures arrive in the UK by plane last year? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower, Perisha Kudhail, Debbie Richford and Olga Smirnova Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon...
Feb 28, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast In the NBA, the US professional basketball league, the average player is a shade over 6ft 6 inches tall. So just how much does being very tall increase a man’s chances of becoming a professional player? Tim Harford talks to data scientist Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, author of Who Makes the NBA?: Data-Driven Answers to Basketball’s Biggest Questions. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: David Crackles Editor: ...
Feb 24, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast What does per capita GDP tell us about the UK economy? Did the government spend £94bn helping with rising energy prices? Was Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg right about the cost of the EU covid recovery scheme? How did Ben Goldacre persuade scientists to publish all their medical research? Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lucy Proctor Producers: Debbie Richford, Perisha Kudhail, Olga Smirnova Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinat...
Feb 21, 2024•28 min•Transcript available on Metacast Big medical datasets pose a serious problem. Thousands of patients’ health records are an enormous risk to personal privacy. But they also contain an enormous opportunity – they could show us how to provide better treatments or more effective health policies. A system called OpenSAFELY has been designed to solve this problem, with the help of a computer code “robot”. Professor Ben Goldacre, director of the Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science at the University of Oxford, explains how it wo...
Feb 17, 2024•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast What is the government’s fiscal rule on the national debt? Are international students stealing places from the UK’s young people? How much social housing is really being built? Do 90% of chip shops sell shark and chips? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Janet Staples Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Charlotte McDonald
Feb 14, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast In a surprising new trend, young men and women around the world are dividing by gender on their politics and ideologies. Whilst young women are becoming more liberal, young men are becoming more conservative. Tim Harford speaks to John Burn-Murdoch, Columnist and Chief Data Reporter at the Financial Times, about why this global phenomena may be occurring and Dr Heejung Chung, Professor of Sociology at the University of Kent, explains why the ideological divisions between young men and women in S...
Feb 10, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast Do you really pay more in council tax on a semi in Hartlepool than a mansion in Westminster? How do the Office for National Statistics work out how much the UK population is going to grow by? How much do junior doctor strikes cost? Is home grown veg worse for climate change than veg grown on a farm? Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower, Debbie Richford and Perisha Kudhail Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown ...
Feb 07, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast How was the calculator invented? How did it go from something the size of a table to something that could be carried in your pocket, the must-have gadget of the 1970’s and 80’s? Tim Harford unpicks the history of the calculator with Keith Houston, author of Empire of the Sum: The Rise and Reign of the Pocket Calculator. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Hal Haines Editor: Richard Vadon...
Feb 03, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast Was there really a 5% measles vaccination rate in Birmingham? Has Brexit already cost 6% of the UKs economy? For how long has crime been falling? And are contestants on the reality gameshow any good at finding traitors? Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon
Jan 31, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast We investigate Oxfam’s claim that “since 2020, the five richest men in the world have seen their fortunes more than double, while almost five billion people have seen their wealth fall”. With the help of Johan Norberg, Historian and Author of ideas and Felix Salmon, Financial Correspondent at Axios, we explore the figures behind the wealth of the richest and uncover what it really tells us about the world’s financial markets. And Charles Kenny, senior fellow at the Centre for Global Development ...
Jan 27, 2024•10 min•Transcript available on Metacast Was Labour shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves wrong about the increase in the price of the weekly shop? What has the violence at sea done to the cost of shipping? Why did YouGov feel the need to correct an analysis of their polling? Are there 30 million GP appointments every month? And how does wind chill work? Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Charlotte McDonald and Nathan Gower Producer: Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ord...
Jan 24, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast We investigate how the vast possibilities in a game of chess compare to the vastness of the observable universe. Dr James Grime helps us understand the Shannon number – a famous figure on the chess side of the equation - and astronomer Professor Catherine Heymans takes on the entire observable universe. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Debbie Richford and Nathan Gower Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Mix: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon
Jan 20, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast We report on the state of the NHS as it struggles through a double wave of Covid and flu infections. We report on the state of the NHS as it struggles through a double wave of Covid and flu infections. Do only 4% of people pay inheritance tax? Paul Lewis sets out the figures. And what do the latest life expectancy figures tell us about how long we’re going to live? Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Kate Lamble Producers: Nathan Gower and Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-or...
Jan 17, 2024•24 min•Transcript available on Metacast How many adverts does the average person see in a day? If you search for this question online, the surprising answer is that we might see thousands – up to 10,000. However, the idea that we see thousands of adverts is a strange and confusing one, without any good research behind it. We investigate the long history of these odd numbers, with the help of Sam Anderson from The Drum and J Walker Smith from Kantar. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brow...
Jan 13, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast Did London see a 2500% increase in gun crime? Are taxes in the UK the highest since the 1950s? Did the UK have high excess deaths from Covid, compared to the rest of Europe? Do three cats go missing every second in the UK? Tim and the team investigate a few of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon
Jan 10, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast The ‘Ndrangheta are one of Italy’s biggest and most dangerous criminal gangs. One piece of research suggested they have an annual turnover of €53bn - more than McDonalds and Deutsche Bank combined. But is that number realistic? Professor Anna Sergi and Professor Francesco Calderoni help us figure out what kind of number makes sense. Reporter: Perisha Kudhail Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon (Picture: Human hands with strings controlling diagram. Credit: ...
Jan 06, 2024•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast Each year we ask some of our favourite statistically-minded people for their numbers of the year. Here they are - from the population of India to the results of a first division football match. Contributors: Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University Timandra Harkness, writer and comedian Rob Eastaway, maths author Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon (Picture: Colourful number...
Dec 30, 2023•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast We investigate a nutritional conundrum –can chocolate ever be better for you than salad? Today we dive in to one of our listener’s family debates and try to find an answer, with the help of nutrition experts Dr David Katz and Professor Bernadette Moore. Reporter: Paul Connolly Researcher: Perisha Kudhail Series Producer: Tom Colls Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon (Picture: A pyramid made of chocolate and salad Credit: Gandee Vasan / Getty Images)
Dec 23, 2023•9 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
