Apple is turning AirPods into a platform for what comes after the App Store. AirPods will augment our environment by pushing intelligent sound. In the first episode of Season 6, Neil goes over how AirPods have evolved from an iPhone accessory into the early stages of a platform well positioned to reshape the current app paradigm for the wearables era. Additional topics include the AirPods Pro launch, AirPods Pro initial impressions, AirPods sales, examples of AirPods as a platform, and the three...
Nov 23, 2019•37 min•Ep 159•Transcript available on Metacast How did Fitbit go from being considered the wearables leader to viewing a $2.1B acquisition as its best hope for shareholders to recoup any value? What led Fitbit to run out of options as an independent company? In episode 158, Neil discusses how Apple Watch forced Fitbit to sell itself. Additional topics include Google’s acquisition offer for Fitbit, how Apple Watch redefined the wrist wearables industry, and the most damning evidence of Fitbit’s demise. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective ...
Nov 09, 2019•31 min•Ep 158•Transcript available on Metacast Apple finds itself amidst another controversy regarding removing HKmap.live from the App Store in Hong Kong. However, Apple is facing a different kind of backlash this time. Episode 157 is dedicated to discussing Neil’s thoughts on Apple doing business in China. Additional topics include Tim Cook’s engagement philosophy, Apple’s tool-making mission, and kowtowing to governments. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving ...
Oct 19, 2019•26 min•Transcript available on Metacast Content distribution has been a major theme for Apple in 2019. In episode 156, Neil goes over how Apple’s revised content distribution arm is structured. Neil also goes over his estimates for how much revenue and gross profit Apple’s content distribution arm can generate by FY2022. Additional discussion topics include the difference between Apple’s paid content bundles and content platforms, Neil’s initial estimates for the number of subscribers Apple will be able to grab for Apple TV+, Apple Ar...
Oct 05, 2019•37 min•Ep 156•Transcript available on Metacast Apple keynotes remain some of the most valuable marketing events in today’s media landscape. Episode 155 is dedicated to going over Neil’s thoughts on the Apple keynote. Discussion topics include the odd criticism facing Apple keynotes, the three primary benefits Apple derives from them, how the Apple keynote has evolved, and areas in which Apple can improve the keynote. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusiv...
Sep 21, 2019•38 min•Ep 155•Transcript available on Metacast Naming iPhones is more art than science. In episode 154, Neil shares his thoughts on Apple’s iPhone naming strategy. The episode includes an oral history of iPhone nomenclature followed by a discussion of where Apple can bring iPhone naming in the future. Neil also goes over why the art of naming iPhones even matters when looking at the big picture. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To be...
Sep 07, 2019•42 min•Transcript available on Metacast In episode 153, Neil discusses the strategy behind Apple TV+. Additional topics include the Apple TV app, five fundamental issues plaguing the paid video streaming market, Netflix’s business model, and what success in paid video streaming looks like for Apple. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Aug 31, 2019•44 min•Ep 153•Transcript available on Metacast Apple is the undisputed leader in wearables, and they are pulling away from the competition. In Episode 152, Neil discusses how Apple’s wearables business can be thought of a train gaining momentum. Competitors face declining odds of being able to stop the train. Additional topics include Apple’s wearables performance in 3Q19, wearables as a percent of overall Apple gadget unit sales, Apple wearables revenue, the factors behind Apple’s wearables success, and why wearables represent a paradigm sh...
Aug 10, 2019•35 min•Transcript available on Metacast A different kind of Above Avalon podcast episode - dedicated to discussing why earnings are so intriguing to Neil. After going over the two ways to utilize quarterly earnings, Neil goes over some of his expectations for Apple’s 3Q19 and how Apple is currently facing a financial tug-of-war. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Jul 27, 2019•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast The recent Jony Ive and Jeff Williams news has been met with mixed reactions. In episode 150, we discuss why the leadership changes neither signify a company moving away from design or hardware nor suggest that management is facing some kind of growth crisis. Upon closer examination, the Jony Ive and Jeff Williams news are byproducts of Apple evolving into a much larger design company. Additional topics include the various growth narratives facing Apple, the growing Apple installed base, and the...
Jul 20, 2019•27 min•Ep 150•Transcript available on Metacast Despite there being no discernible change to the grand vision behind Apple’s product development, there does appear to be a noteworthy change in strategy. Episode 149 is dedicated to discussing how Apple’s product strategy has changed from a pull system to a push system. Additional topics include product-related implications raised by Apple’s revised strategy, the Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products, and why I’m hesitant about some aspects of the change. Receive my analysis and perspective on...
Jun 22, 2019•37 min•Ep 149•Transcript available on Metacast Apple has reached a level of ecosystem strength that still hasn’t been fully digested by the marketplace. In episode 148, we discuss Apple’s ecosystem ahead of the company’s developers conference. Additional topics include how I estimated the total number of Apple users, various revenue per user figures for different parts of Apple’s user base, the difference between Apple in 2019 and the 1990s, and how wearables represent one of Apple’s key growth opportunities. Receive my analysis and perspect...
Jun 01, 2019•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast In episode 147, we take a look at the changing competitive landscape facing the giants (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft). Comparing the situation to bumper cars, we discuss why Google and Facebook have the slower cars that are no longer able to hide within the traffic. Additional topics include deep dives into three competitive battles in particular: Apple vs. Google, Apple vs. Facebook, and Amazon vs. Facebook vs. Google. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout th...
May 18, 2019•33 min•Transcript available on Metacast In what has become an annual trend, Apple uses FY2Q earnings to also update its share buyback authorization and quarterly cash dividend. In episode 146, we preview the changes Apple will likely announce to its capital return program. The discussion begins by going over how Apple has adjusted its buyback pace following U.S. tax reform and why the company will eventually have to cut back on buyback. We then go over my expectations for what Apple’s board will approve in terms of increases to the bu...
Apr 27, 2019•37 min•Transcript available on Metacast At Apple’s recent event at Steve Jobs Theater, the company unveiled its revamped content distribution arm. Episode 145 is dedicated to discussing Apple’s new content distribution services: Apple News+, Apple Arcade, and Apple TV+. Instead of just announcing services for consuming more content, Apple unveiled a strategy for curating content for its user base of a billion people, something that I am calling “Curation for Casual.” The discussion also goes over how curation explains Apple’s move int...
Apr 13, 2019•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast In recent years, the iPad line has undergone transformational changes. In episode 144, we look at Apple’s broader iPad strategy to add context to the newest updates involving the iPad mini and iPad Air. The episode kicks off with my thoughts on the new devices. The discussion then turns to the three sales phases that have come to define the iPad business over the years. Additional topics include Peak iPad mini, how Apple is following an iPhone / Mac hybrid approach when it comes to iPad updates,...
Mar 23, 2019•35 min•Ep 144•Transcript available on Metacast For the first time in 16 years, Apple expects its capital expenditures (capex) to decline during the current fiscal year. Episode 143 is dedicated to discussing capex and how the financial metric provides a different look at how Apple is unique in comparison to its largest peers. Additional topics include defining capex, the theories behind Apple’s declining capex, the dramatic capex shift occurring among the Wall Street giants, and how capex shines light on a company’s cash-generating machine. ...
Mar 16, 2019•31 min•Transcript available on Metacast In one word, the smart home has been disappointing. Episode 142 is focused on why the way we think about digital homes is in need of a major reset. After going over my thoughts on the current state of the smart home, we take a closer look at Apple’s vision for the home and why the company is likely looking to revamp its broader home strategy. Additional topics include how Amazon and Google have used voice to hijack the smart home in order to push alternative visions and Apple hiring Sam Jadallah...
Feb 23, 2019•38 min•Transcript available on Metacast There’s a remarkable story found with AirPods. Nearly two years after launch, AirPods began to go viral at the end of November 2018. In December, search interest was up 500%. This is unprecedented for an Apple product. In episode 141, we take a deep dive into the AirPods phenomenon and how the product became part of culture. Additional topics include AirPods unit sales, the size of the AirPods user base, the keys to success in wearables, and thinking of wearables as battles for real estate on ou...
Feb 16, 2019•34 min•Transcript available on Metacast Some of Apple’s recent decisions regarding content distribution have sparked a debate. Is Apple embracing a new kind of strategy that elevates services at the expense of hardware? Episode 140 is dedicated to going over Apple’s content distribution strategy and how the company is looking to leverage its user base in an effort to establish one of the more formidable content distribution arms in existence. Additional topics include Apple’s history as a content distributor, how streaming is changing...
Jan 26, 2019•40 min•Ep 140•Transcript available on Metacast January is a great time to embrace the unknown rather than come up with predictions for the next 12 months. Episode 139 is dedicated to going over my fifth installment of Apple questions as the new year kicks off. We discuss 56 questions facing Apple in 2019. Topics include everything from big picture themes to detailed questions about Apple’s product strategy. Additional topics include Apple’s financial picture, management changes, emerging markets headwinds, R&D, and capital expenditures.
Jan 19, 2019•45 min•Ep 139•Transcript available on Metacast There will come a time when the iPhone business is in big trouble. However, that day has not arrived quite yet. Episode 138 is focused on how the sheer level of pessimism facing iPhone hit an inflection point in 2018. Things have simply become too negative. The discussion begins with the iPhone’s impact on Apple financials. We then dissect iPhone hysteria to see how pessimism has changed and centered on a new type of narrative. Additional topics include demand for $999+ iPhones, the gray market,...
Dec 22, 2018•25 min•Transcript available on Metacast Given the magnitude of its buyback program, excess cash position, and free cash flow generation, no other public company is in as good of a position as Apple to benefit from stock market turmoil. Episode 137 is focused on how Apple can leverage its buyback program to take advantage of stock market dislocations. The discussion begins with my thoughts on the recent weakness in AAPL shares. We then look back at previous AAPL stock downturns to find a few similarities and takeaways. The discussion t...
Dec 08, 2018•43 min•Transcript available on Metacast The most surprising part of Apple’s 4Q18 results wasn’t found with the numbers or even guidance. Instead, by announcing unit sales data would no longer be provided starting in 1Q19, management dropped a bomb on Wall Street. Episode 136 is focused on discussing Apple’s decision to move beyond unit sales. We go over how unit sales became a crutch for financial analysts. The discussion then turns to management’s new blueprint for how it wants Wall Street to judge Apple. Additional topics include Ap...
Nov 17, 2018•33 min•Ep 136•Transcript available on Metacast In episode 135, we look at how the gray market for refurbished and previously-owned iPhones is impacting Apple’s iPhone pricing strategy. The discussion begins with a closer look at iPhone ASP (average selling price) trends and my thoughts on how the gray market is impacting iPhone ASP. We then go over the three key ingredients needed to sustain a functioning gray market for iPhone. Additional topics include: iPhone durability, the iPhone Upgrade Program, iPhone residual values and depreciation,...
Oct 27, 2018•33 min•Transcript available on Metacast The Netflix machine seems unstoppable. Strong paid subscriber growth and rising content budgets have given Netflix a commanding lead in the paid video streaming market. However, change is in the air. Episode 134 is dedicated to discussing Netflix’s business model and why calls suggesting Netflix has won the paid video streaming war are grossly premature. Additional topics include Netflix’s keys to success, upcoming paid video streaming competitors, lessons from the music streaming industry, and ...
Oct 13, 2018•42 min•Ep 134•Transcript available on Metacast Last week, Apple Watch was the star of Apple’s second major product event at Steve Jobs Theater. Episode 133 is focused on looking at the big picture following Apple’s event. The discussion begins by going over Tim Cook’s comments regarding Apple’s mission statement and then quickly puts the iPhone and Apple Watch updates into context. We then turn to my Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products. Additional topics include my user base estimates for Apple’s various product categories, my rationale f...
Sep 22, 2018•35 min•Ep 133•Transcript available on Metacast In episode 132, we take a closer look at Apple's Project Titan. The discussion begins by going over the signs pointing to Apple expanding Titan initiatives in recent months. We then turn to Apple's goal with Titan and the automobile's changing value proposition. Tesla enters the discussion as we look at why the company isn't a realistic acquisition target for Apple. Additional topics include Tesla's struggles, poaching, Doug Field's move from Tesla to Titan, and the most interesting things to wa...
Sep 08, 2018•33 min•Transcript available on Metacast Apple's latest growth story is driven by three drivers: iPhone, Services, and Wearables. In episode 131, we discuss these three growth drivers to see how they are not created equal. After going over the factors fueling Apple's growth drivers, we spend time discussing how Apple's growth story may change in the near term. The episode concludes with a big picture overview of why Apple's long-term growth story won't just be about Services. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the ...
Aug 18, 2018•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast Episode 130 is dedicated to discussing how Apple has become comfortable in accepting, and even embracing, the awkwardness that exists between the iPad and Mac. The discussion begins with a closer look at the fascinating juxtaposition between Apple's recent Mac campaign and its iPad ads from earlier this year. We go over what the ads tell us about Apple's thought process regarding the iPad and Mac. Things then turn to how the iPad vs. Mac juxtaposition hasn't been static over the years. After bri...
Jul 28, 2018•30 min•Ep 130•Transcript available on Metacast 
