A select group of corporate giants have been gaining influence and investor dollars on Wall Street. Episode 129 is dedicated to discussing today's corporate giants (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Facebook) including the key differences and similarities between the five. The second half of the episode goes over why I think odds are good that today's giants won't be tomorrow's giants. The episode concludes with a closer look at Apple's quest to do the seemingly impossible - remain relevan...
Jul 14, 2018•37 min•Ep 129•Transcript available on Metacast One of the major takeaways from this year's WWDC keynote was found with something not announced on stage. Apple finds itself announcing new technologies that make more sense on form factors that don't yet exist. Episode 128 includes a discussion of this year's WWDC, which demonstrated how Apple is figuring out what comes next. After quickly recapping the major WWDC 2018 announcements, Neil discusses how Apple is setting the stage for smart glasses. The second half of the episode goes over Apple'...
Jun 23, 2018•27 min•Ep 128•Transcript available on Metacast Last week, Neil celebrated the third anniversary of launching Above Avalon subscriptions. Episode 127 provides a behind-the-scenes look at Above Avalon and includes a discussion of Neil's business model and the broader paid subscription industry. Neil then goes over some of the highlights and challenges from the first three years of Above Avalon subscriptions. The episode concludes with a closer look at Above Avalon's place in the Apple blogosphere and the major changes that have unfolded in the...
May 26, 2018•34 min•Transcript available on Metacast Apple's services business is remarkably strong yet surprisingly mysterious. A closer look at Apple Services reveals an apparatus, which can easily qualify as a Fortune 100 company, that isn't what it seems from the outside. In episode 126, Neil puts together a few pieces of the Apple Services puzzle. After going over the five categories that comprise Apple Services, Neil goes over his financial estimates for each category. This leads to an overview of Apple's Services strategy and a look ahead a...
May 19, 2018•34 min•Transcript available on Metacast In this special edition episode of the Above Avalon podcast, Neil goes over Apple's 2Q18 earnings. The discussion is dedicated to analyzing iPhone results. Along with going over his iPhone X sales estimates, Neil discusses the latest iPhone ASP and iPhone channel inventory adjustment trends. The episode concludes with Neil's theory as to why iPhone supply chain rumors have been off when it comes to iPhone X. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily...
May 05, 2018•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast In Episode 124, Neil discusses how Apple's capital allocation goals will require the company to double the pace of share buyback from current levels. The episode begins by going over the various updates Apple has pushed through to its share buyback and cash dividends. Attention then turns to Apple's excess cash position, which plays a key role in any discussion involving capital return. The episode concludes with Neil going over one possible path Apple can follow to reach an optimal capital stra...
Apr 28, 2018•33 min•Ep 124•Transcript available on Metacast Episode 123 takes a closer look at Apple's capital allocation story on Wall Street. After discussing why narratives are so important on Wall Street, Neil goes over the core tenets of a capital allocation story and how the narrative does a good job of describing Apple's design-led culture. Neil then goes over a number of implications found with Apple possessing a capital allocation narrative on Wall Street. The episode concludes with a discussion regarding Apple's valuation trends relative to the...
Apr 21, 2018•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast After a brief lull, Apple's R&D expenditures are once again exploding higher. In Episode 122, Neil analyzes the latest Apple R&D trends. After discussing three drivers for R&D growth, Neil goes over the two new products likely responsible for the recent surge in R&D expenditures. The episode concludes with Neil's grand theory on Apple R&D. Receive Neil's analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Mar 17, 2018•33 min•Transcript available on Metacast In Episode 121, Neil discusses Apple's strategy for controlling sound in our lives. The discussion begins by going over Apple's motivation for controlling sound and the central role music plays in it. The episode then turns to the two parts of Apple's strategy: sound on the go and sound in the home. Neil goes over how iPod, iPhone, AirPods, and now HomePod, play a role in Apple's strategy for controlling sound. The episode concludes with a few reasons why Apple's sound in the home strategy appea...
Mar 10, 2018•31 min•Ep 121•Transcript available on Metacast Episode 120 is focused on how Apple's dramatic change in strategy regarding larger iPhones was driven by the realization that iPad mini was the wrong bet. After discussing the early iPad years, Neil goes over the background behind how the iPad mini came to be. Neil then discusses how Apple found itself flat-footed with larger smartphone screens and how a different perspective toward smartphones and tablets ultimately led Apple to a stronger iPhone vision and strategy. The episode concludes with ...
Mar 03, 2018•31 min•Ep 120•Transcript available on Metacast The unit sales growth era that had defined iPhone for years is over. Episode 119 is dedicated to discussing the iPhone's new era that can best be characterized as status quo. After discussing iPhone sales trends, Neil goes over six headwinds that have come together to create a much less friendly iPhone sales growth environment. The discussion turns to how the dynamic between the two main iPhone sales drivers show a more resilient business. Neil then goes over how key iPhone fundamentals will tre...
Feb 24, 2018•35 min•Transcript available on Metacast Something is changing when it comes to the way people are thinking about Apple Watch. We are witnessing nothing short of a revolution with Apple Watch. In Episode 118, Neil discusses how Apple Watch has become a bridge between the present and future. The device holds the potential to become more disruptive to the current computing paradigm than even Apple may want to acknowledge. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. To subscribe, visit Abo...
Jan 27, 2018•39 min•Transcript available on Metacast January is a great time to embrace the unknown found with a new year. Episode 117 is focused on going over my list of questions for Apple in 2018. We cover more than 60 questions on subjects that range from Apple's major product categories to various managerial and organizational topics. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily emails. To sign up, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Jan 13, 2018•41 min•Ep 117•Transcript available on Metacast Episode 116 is dedicated to reviewing Apple's performance in 2017. After briefly discussing my methodology for grading Apple, we discuss the various milestones and issues that impacted the company in 2017. My grading process is broken into seven categories (iPad, Apple Watch, iPhone, Mac, Accessories, Services, Financial Strategy). The episode concludes with my overall grade for Apple in 2017 and a few closing thoughts on what turned out to be a very busy year for management. Receive my analysis...
Jan 06, 2018•47 min•Transcript available on Metacast Apple isn't a hardware company. Nevertheless, hardware's importance to Apple continues to grow. Episode 115 is dedicated to discussing Apple's growing bet on hardware. The episode begins by going over Apple's hardware strategy and includes a brief history of Apple's approach to hardware. The discussion then turns to Apple's hardware scale as we go over the company's overall product sales. We conclude with how Apple is doubling down on hardware in order to become the most powerful software provid...
Dec 23, 2017•30 min•Transcript available on Metacast The probability of a U.S. corporate tax overhaul has never been higher. Episode 114 is dedicated to discussing how upcoming changes to the U.S. corporate tax code will impact Apple. We begin by going over Apple's current cash dilemma. The discussion then turns to the two significant changes that will take place with Apple's cash and balance sheet strategy assuming the U.S. corporate tax code is overhauled. The rest of the episode is dedicated to talking about Apple's excess cash and the options ...
Dec 16, 2017•36 min•Ep 114•Transcript available on Metacast We are in the midst of a massive mindshare bubble involving stationary smart speakers in the home. Episode 113 is dedicated to discussing stationary smart speakers powered by digital voice assistants. After going over my Amazon Echo sales estimate, we look at why certain companies are placing big bets on stationary smart speakers and why there are already signs that the rosy and optimistic narrative facing the product category is off. The discussion then turns to the three distinct possibilities...
Dec 02, 2017•41 min•Transcript available on Metacast The fourth season of the Above Avalon Podcast kicks off with a discussion focused on Apple Watch sales disclosure. We take a closer look at the debate surrounding disclosure to see how Apple now stands to benefit more from disclosing Apple Watch sales than from keeping them hidden. The discussion goes over the four major changes that have swung the disclosure debate in favor of Apple providing Apple Watch data. We look at one possible path that Apple can use going forward to disclose Apple Watch...
Nov 18, 2017•42 min•Transcript available on Metacast Apple was faced with a choice: Stick with the familiar and milk the iPhone business for all it’s worth, or throw familiarity out the window to pave a new iPhone journey for the next 10 years. Apple chose the latter, and iPhone X is the byproduct. Episode 111 is dedicated to discussing iPhone X. We begin by going over Apple's motivation behind iPhone X. The discussion then turns to my initial impressions and thoughts from using the device. We go over Apple's strategy regarding iPhone X reviews an...
Nov 04, 2017•41 min•Ep 111•Transcript available on Metacast Apple is a Silicon Valley and Wall Street leader with a bull's-eye on its back, and rightly so. Leaders should be held to a higher standard. Episode 110 is dedicated to discussing how Apple is being held not just to a higher standard, but rather to a double standard. We begin by going over what it means for Apple to face a double standard. The discussion then goes over examples of how companies not named Apple are being graded on a curve. After looking at how Apple's double standard impacts the ...
Oct 28, 2017•37 min•Transcript available on Metacast Apple's product strategy has been receiving more attention lately as voice-first and AI-first become buzzwords in Silicon Valley. Episode 109 is dedicated to discussing the vision behind Apple's product strategy. We begin by analyzing Apple's current product strategy and how the company's four major product categories are connected to each other. The discussion then turns to Apple's shifting product priorities. This brings us to Apple's grand vision and how there is a role for design to play in ...
Oct 21, 2017•38 min•Transcript available on Metacast The amount of risk Apple is taking with iPhone X should not be underestimated. Episode 108 takes a closer look at how Apple is displaying courage by not letting fear of change and customer rejection dictate iPhone design decisions. The discussion begins with my iPhone X impressions. We then go over how the iPhone X fits within Apple's overall iPhone strategy. We go over examples of how Apple has displayed courage with iPhone in the past and why design has such a large impact on iPhone's future. ...
Oct 07, 2017•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast Episode 107 is dedicated to discussing Steve Jobs Theater. We begin with my impressions from attending Apple's inaugural event at Steve Jobs Theater. The discussion then turns to how Steve Jobs Theater is an Apple product, and a closer look at the building uncovers a side to Apple that few have seen before. We go over additional items that stood out to me about the theater and Apple Park, including why the most crucial takeaway ends up being about Jony Ive. Receive my analysis and perspective on...
Sep 23, 2017•34 min•Ep 107•Transcript available on Metacast Apple's largest product event in years is just a few days away. In episode 106, we look at the big picture ahead of the inaugural event at Steve Jobs Theater. We begin by going over the top three trends taking place in the smartphone market. The discussion then turns to the major themes in the wearables market, followed by TV, and then the home. The goal is to set the stage for Apple's upcoming product announcements. I will be attending Apple's inaugural event at Steve Jobs Theater. My full thou...
Sep 09, 2017•37 min•Transcript available on Metacast In episode 105, we focus on Apple's business in China in an effort to answer whether the country represents more of an opportunity or risk for Apple. The discussion begins by going over some of the numbers, including those that show Apple's volatile performance in China. We then look at the major trends unfolding in the smartphone market in China, which leads to a deep dive into the major issues impacting Apple in China. After going over the WeChat versus Apple debate, we discuss the various pos...
Sep 02, 2017•36 min•Ep 105•Transcript available on Metacast Episode 104 is dedicated to discussing how Apple's business model predisposes the company to cash generation unlike that of any other firm in Silicon Valley. The discussion begins by comparing Apple's financials to those of the leading consumer-facing technology companies. We then take a closer look at Apple's business model to see just how the company is able to generate so much free cash flow. The stationary speaker market is used as an example to demonstrate how Apple plans on making money di...
Aug 19, 2017•42 min•Transcript available on Metacast Episode 103 marks the introduction of a brand new topic to the Above Avalon podcast: augmented reality glasses. All of the pieces are coming together for Apple to sell glasses. We begin the episode with the reason why now is the time to talk about Apple Glasses. The discussion then turns to the seven reasons why Apple Glasses are inevitable. This sets the scene for the big picture (a deep dive into glasses as a device, Apple's evolving thought process about glasses, and an overview of how Apple ...
Jul 29, 2017•38 min•Transcript available on Metacast Episode 102 has a financial tone as we discuss how Wall Street is thinking about Apple in a new way. After breaking up the last five years of Apple stock performance into four eras, we go over my theory on why Wall Street now looks at Apple's excess cash as the most influential factor impacting the stock. This means that the iPhone business is losing influence over the stock. We go over the four reasons why I think investors are now valuing Apple's future cash flows at a higher level. The episod...
Jul 22, 2017•40 min•Transcript available on Metacast This week marks the tenth anniversary of Apple launching the iPhone. Episode 101 is focused on how ten years of iPhone sales changed Apple. After going over three sets of data that stand out when thinking about the iPhone, we take a closer look at three lessons Apple learned from iPhone (ambition, control, platform). The episode concludes with a discussion of how the iPhone's legacy is already beginning to appear. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive dai...
Jul 01, 2017•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast The 100th episode of the Above Avalon podcast is dedicated to how WWDC contained clues hinting at the Mac's future. We begin by discussing how management's WWDC keynote marked a turning point in the awkward Mac stretch that has been unfolding over the past few years. We then compare the Mac portion of the keynote to the iPad portion in order to see the significant difference in tone and strategy. This difference ends up helping us map the Mac's direction. After going over some of the possible ch...
Jun 24, 2017•35 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
