For decades, Republicans were thought of as the country club set, while Democrats were the party of the working class. But increasingly, education has become a larger dividing line in American politics than economic status. This trend has seen college-educated voters move toward the Democratic Party and non-college-educated voters shift toward Republicans. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Matt Grossmann and David Hopkins, authors of "Polarized by Degrees: How th...
Oct 23, 2024•41 min•Transcript available on Metacast With Election Day just two weeks away, Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on undecided voters. But the profile of the typical swing voter has changed. Move over, soccer moms. Say hello to … podcast bros? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at who the undecided voters are in this election. They also examine what appears to be a surprisingly competitive Senate race in ruby-red Nebraska. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Oct 21, 2024•39 min•Transcript available on Metacast We talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives. In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outc...
Oct 17, 2024•46 min•Transcript available on Metacast With three weeks until Election Day, the 538 crew analyzes the state of what remains an extremely close presidential race. They also wade into the (very nerdy) debate over “weighting by recalled vote” that is roiling the polling community. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Oct 14, 2024•35 min•Transcript available on Metacast For those in swing states, political ads are an inescapable part of life. But if you haven’t experienced the blitz firsthand, this episode of the 538 Politics podcast offers a glimpse into the barrage of campaign messages flooding our screens. Erika Franklin Fowler, director of the Wesleyan Media Project and professor of government at Wesleyan University, joins the podcast to break down the wave of ads hitting TVs, phones and browsers this election season. We explore whether Donald Trump or Kama...
Oct 10, 2024•49 min•Transcript available on Metacast There is officially less than a month until Election Day. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we consider what it would mean for the Electoral College map if the polls are correct in suggesting a racial and generational realignment. We also look at how views of the conflict in the Middle East have evolved in the year since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack. And, with new information about former President Donald Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election, whether his behavior sur...
Oct 07, 2024•39 min•Transcript available on Metacast The crew reacts to the first and only vice-presidential debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance in this late-night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Oct 02, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast There's a lot going on in the world as we head into the final stretch of the 2024 election: a devastating hurricane, a growing war in the Middle East, multiple high profile scandals and an upcoming VP debate. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks whether any of these big stories are changing the subject of the campaign. They also look at how former President Trump and Vice President Harris are appealing to voters on some of the issues voters say are most important to the...
Sep 30, 2024•43 min•Transcript available on Metacast We are in the frantic final weeks of the presidential campaign, which means Americans are obsessing over polling data more than usual. At 538, we cover this stuff year-round. So today on the show, we’re going back to the fundamentals. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a seasoned political hack or a bright-eyed newcomer: Everyone can benefit from our 10 Essentials Of Following Polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Sep 26, 2024•44 min•Transcript available on Metacast As early voting kicks off in states across the country, the crew dives into an intensifying election season on this week’s installment of the 538 Politics podcast. They discuss whether early voting data can offer clues about November's outcome, analyze conflicting polls from key battleground states and examine the potential for a shift in the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. Plus, the team previews 538’s new Senate polling averages, focusing on the races that could determine control of the cha...
Sep 23, 2024•41 min•Transcript available on Metacast Earlier this year, it seemed like the long-standing pattern of Black voters as steadfast Democrats was shifting, with a record-high percentage choosing former President Donald Trump in survey after survey. However, Vice President Kamala Harris's candidacy has sparked new enthusiasm among Black voters, boosting both engagement and her popularity. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen examines these shifts with Chryl Laird, a professor of government and politics at the University ...
Sep 19, 2024•42 min•Transcript available on Metacast The U.S. Secret Service thwarted another apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen speaks with 538's Mary Radcliffe and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik about how Americans view political violence. They also look at whether presidential election polls have shifted in response to last week's debate and discuss a recent Gallup analysis showing a yawning gender gap among young Americans. Learn more about...
Sep 16, 2024•42 min•Transcript available on Metacast The crew reacts to the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in this late night podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Sep 11, 2024•33 min•Transcript available on Metacast As an extremely close presidential campaign heads into the homestretch, economic news abounds. The jobs report released last week fell short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve appears ready to cut interest rates later this month. Will any of it matter? Or have Americans generally made up their minds about this economy? Plus, the crew previews Tuesday night’s presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, and they test their knowledge of historic...
Sep 09, 2024•38 min•Transcript available on Metacast Election Day is exactly two months away, meaning the final stretch of the presidential campaign is upon us. On Tuesday’s show, we assessed the current state of the race and how we got here. Today, we look ahead to the knowns and unknowns that could shake up the race in the coming weeks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Sep 05, 2024•26 min•Transcript available on Metacast Labor Day is behind us and the conventional final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign is here. There will be a rush of advertising, debates, more urgent attention paid to jobs reports, and October surprises. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we look at where we are in the campaign and how we got here. In the second episode this week, we'll look at what to expect over the coming two months. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Sep 03, 2024•34 min•Transcript available on Metacast This month both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump released a slate of economic proposals in an attempt to gain the upper hand on the issue most important to voters. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about the current state of the economy, voter perceptions of it and how the candidates’ proposals might shape both of those factors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoice...
Aug 29, 2024•41 min•Transcript available on Metacast Just as the Democratic National Convention wrapped up, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the 2024 race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to parse the effect that both events could have on the presidential race. They also look to Washington state's primary for an indication of how the House popular vote might play out this fall. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Aug 26, 2024•37 min•Transcript available on Metacast In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Aug 23, 2024•27 min•Transcript available on Metacast In this late-night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the third night of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Aug 22, 2024•33 min•Transcript available on Metacast The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Aug 21, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast The Democratic National Convention is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses what to expect from the Democrats' weeklong pitch to voters. They also consider how a shorter general election timeline changes the dynamics of the race and how Vice President Kamala Harris's coalition is different from President Joe Biden's. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Aug 19, 2024•40 min•Transcript available on Metacast One of the most promising electoral trends for Republicans during the Trump era has been a shift among Latino voters toward Republicans. The eight percentage point swing from Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020 represented the largest shift of any racial or ethnic group in either direction. And the erosion of support for Democrats didn’t stop there. In a poll of Latino voters in battleground states from the research group Equis in May, Biden was leading Trump among Latinos by only 5 percentage poin...
Aug 15, 2024•37 min•Transcript available on Metacast The contours of the Harris-Trump race are coming further into focus. Vice President Kamala Harris just wrapped up a weeklong tour of the battleground states with her newly minted running mate and former President Donald Trump has been weighing in on all matter of topics on social media and in a lengthy press conference. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about the latest poll...
Aug 12, 2024•40 min•Transcript available on Metacast Vice President Kamala Harris has picked a running mate. On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Will the gun-owning, football-coaching Midwesterner help Democrats’ chances in November? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Aug 06, 2024•31 min•Transcript available on Metacast On Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris secured enough delegate votes in the DNC virtual roll call to become the nominee and the announcement of her running mate is imminent. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at how the contours of the presidential race have changed in the two weeks since Harris became the expected nominee. In our newly relaunched polling averages, Harris has a slim lead nationally and across the northern battleground states. Learn more about your a...
Aug 05, 2024•37 min•Transcript available on Metacast How much do you respect people who hold different political views from you? On today’s podcast, Galen speaks with Jeff Spinner-Halev and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, political scientists and authors of the book “Respect and Loathing in American Democracy.” They conducted one of the first empirical studies of respect in American politics, exploring how modern partisans overwhelmingly struggle to respect their political enemies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Aug 01, 2024•30 min•Transcript available on Metacast In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew drafts potential running mates for expected Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Who will the veep choose for veep? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jul 29, 2024•41 min•Transcript available on Metacast In the span of just two days, Vice President Kamala Harris consolidated support within the Democratic Party and is well on her way to securing the Democratic nomination for president. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Mary Radcliffe and Geoffrey Skelley about what has and hasn’t changed in the newly reshaped 2024 presidential race. Harris won’t have the same challenges President Joe Biden faced when it came to perceptions of his age, and already it appears some y...
Jul 25, 2024•43 min•Transcript available on Metacast In this weekend installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 race. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jul 21, 2024•34 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
